Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[leo2000]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The fact that November will likely come in BN and the composite of the month will have good N PAC poleward Aleutian ridging is definitely a good sign going into December. It suggests that any relaxation of the PAC will probably be short lived.

Exactly and November usually has a strong correlation for what the winter will end up being Dec-Feb. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

I can remember several people on here saying torch torch torch.  Not all but many were ready to throw in the towel is all 'm saying

This is why I get aggravated over the BS thrown around. You need to weed through all the silly posts based off of emotions and wolly caterpillars, and look for the relevant stuff. There was not a real signal either way, other than the worries of the typical few that have zero factual basis..other than what they hoped/wish would happen.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Yeah I've been reading! But everyone says not to buy anything...w/e. Y'all cray

The EPS is a furnace late this month .we can hope it’s wrong I guess 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Many saw the positive turn in the middle of the Oct heat wave while some refused to. 

[CoastalWx]

Since I guess I can't post images this big, here is a neat MJO link from Mike V. The CCKW/MJO stuff is helpful too.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

 

The euro stuff he has is proprietary, but this is why I thought we may see the pattern relax, and it appears it will...and also why I think the dateline ridge rill come back in December. The GFS stuff tells the story too.  If you notice, the purples (or basically divergence aloft) is moving back into the western Pacific. This creates a favorable environment for convection. The convection when anomalous can really excite the jetstream from all the latent heat release, and create a downstream response. In this case we'll likely see troughing in the central and EPAC gradually get replaced with ridging as the wave moves east and all the heat and moisture cause the jetstream to buckle north near the dateline. At least in theory. Back last week when we mentioned that the pattern shown on models seemed like it would be temporary, this was why. The forcing argued for a turnaround despite the models (like the weeklies and extended ensembles) showing otherwise. Over the last 5 days this became true and it looks to relax to some extent.   It's nice to look at things outside the classic box from time to time. The euro products keep the forcing in the maritime continent so that probably argues for dateline ridging and perhaps -PNA in December. It did show the chance for a CCKW to traverse the globe, but seems less of a chance now. This +PNA/-NAO is leftover from the last big MJO passage.

 

[WintersComing]

This is why I get aggravated over the BS thrown around. You need to weed through all the silly posts based off of emotions and wolly caterpillars, and look for the relevant stuff. There was not a real signal either way, other than the worries of the typical few that have zero factual basis..other than what they hoped/wish would happen.

I aggravated you?? Good Lord lol. All I said was things seem to be looking a bit better than they did same a month or two ago. If a statement like that upsets you there are people you can talk to!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

 

 

I aggravated you?? Good Lord lol. All I said was things seem to be looking a bit better than they did same a month or two ago. If a statement like that upsets you there are people you can talk to!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I didn't take it that way. I think he means he was aggravated at some of the weenies spreading rumors of disaster....the ones who maybe caught your eye that had you posting about why things turned around....when really, there wasn't a clear signal back then.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't take it that way. I think he means he was aggravated at some of the weenies spreading rumors of disaster....the ones who maybe caught your eye that had you posting about why things turned around....when really, there wasn't a clear signal back then.

Yeah that’s how I construed it too. There were some weenies going off the wall with cold pattern locking in with raging hard - NAO  forever 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I really didn't want to start an argument.  The snow that fell up here came literally as the temps were falling.  Soil definitely wasn't frozen.  It was like 50F before that FROPA.  Now the ground is definitely frozen but not 5 days ago.

It makes sense on both sides.  

All I was saying is I had 0.8" sit around for 4 days in the first half of November with sunshine.  The sunshine in March would've taken care of it easily regardless of temps.  That's all, lol.

 

Will has my point correct. The "skin" was frozen. The subsurface is still relatively warm. I don't care what Ginxy's map shows, my ground is not frozen 2" down. It all comes down to the "net". If the air is cold enough with this sun angle it'll keep the snow since the skin temp will be so cold. Like Will said, when you get a saturated 32+ it starts melting as that subsurface warmth rises up. It melted slowly all last night even though I was flatlined at 32F. I'm not saying it'll melt it fast...but it does slowly eat away at it with meh temps. 

[LurkerBoy]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that’s how I construed it too. There were some weenies going off the wall with cold pattern locking in with raging hard - NAO  forever 

LMFAOOOOO

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 Certainly an occasion where i agree with you. Powder freak Knows his snow better than anyone. Low sun angle and arctic airmass Laughs at soil temp Fetish

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

 

I aggravated you?? Good Lord lol. All I said was things seem to be looking a bit better than they did same a month or two ago. If a statement like that upsets you there are people you can talk to!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

No, not at all. It bothers me that some get led astray (such as yourself) by all the silly torch talk based off of anecdotal fears. You are someone trying to learn, and obviously got led astray by some of the BS. This happens every year though. It is what it is. I feel like many mets on here try hard to give their thoughts, but it falls through the cracks sometimes.

[Damage In Tolland]

Gotta say.. it’s been a long time since there’s been this much anger on here. Normally there’s some, but this is over the top type anger from many different folks. Gonna be a long and difficult winter it seems 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 Scoots is saying he’d rather a big Morch snowstorm with high sun angle, melting easier, spring , no upcoming holidays etc.. I honestly don’t get that. To each own 

It seems to me we as a region are a Bit overdue for a region wide 12 incher Even in late november

Will, is it that difficult to Have a bench mark

Track w a polar airmass in late novie

I realize its Not the normal, but given records and anomalous Weather On occasion, it seems we are "overdue"

 

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Many saw the positive turn in the middle of the Oct heat wave while some refused to. 

That was the real pattern change.  From 4-6 weeks of literally +10 departures in the means and blowing away warm records, to even near normal temperatures is one heck of a pattern change.  Now that we are getting some good below normal air masses has to bode well going forward.  That switch in later October though was impressive.

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

LMFAOOOOO

He's something else ain't he lol....

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Will has my point correct. The "skin" was frozen. The subsurface is still relatively warm. I don't care what Ginxy's map shows, my ground is not frozen 2" down. It all comes down to the "net". If the air is cold enough with this sun angle it'll keep the snow since the skin temp will be so cold. Like Will said, when you get a saturated 32+ it starts melting as that subsurface warmth rises up. It melted slowly all last night even though I was flatlined at 32F. I'm not saying it'll melt it fast...but it does slowly eat away at it with meh temps. 

Yeah that makes sense.  I honestly didn't look at your temps before responding.  Don't know why I read the initial post as saying the ground warmth was eating the snow away despite the cold temps.  But you were 32-35F so that makes a lot more sense.  

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That washase real pattern change.  From 4-6  weeks of literally +10 departures in the means and blowing away warm records, to even near normal temperatures is one heck of a pattern change.  Now that we are getting some good below normal air masses has to bode well going forward.  That switch in later October though was impressive.

The 2 month Departures were the impressive part. It had To become normal at Some Time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, now that cane season and now winter outlook season is over, I'm out of here until its going to snow.

This is the dumb $hit that get people at each other's throats when the weather blows.

Peace-

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Oh I will take March six ways to Sunday over November

March skiing vs November skiing

We are the minority here but yes, me too. 

[weathafella]

This is my 71st November.  I lost 15 living in LA.   The only contender in the group was one I observed in June Lake,CA in 1986 around Veterans Day and that one was 30 inches.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Since I guess I can't post images this big, here is a neat MJO link from Mike V. The CCKW/MJO stuff is helpful too.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

 

The euro stuff he has is proprietary, but this is why I thought we may see the pattern relax, and it appears it will...and also why I think the dateline ridge rill come back in December. The GFS stuff tells the story too.  If you notice, the purples (or basically divergence aloft) is moving back into the western Pacific. This creates a favorable environment for convection. The convection when anomalous can really excite the jetstream from all the latent heat release, and create a downstream response. In this case we'll likely see troughing in the central and EPAC gradually get replaced with ridging as the wave moves east and all the heat and moisture cause the jetstream to buckle north near the dateline. At least in theory. Back last week when we mentioned that the pattern shown on models seemed like it would be temporary, this was why. The forcing argued for a turnaround despite the models (like the weeklies and extended ensembles) showing otherwise. Over the last 5 days this became true and it looks to relax to some extent.   It's nice to look at things outside the classic box from time to time. The euro products keep the forcing in the maritime continent so that probably argues for dateline ridging and perhaps -PNA in December. It did show the chance for a CCKW to traverse the globe, but seems less of a chance now. This +PNA/-NAO is leftover from the last big MJO passage.

 

IDK if I agree with this overall as forcing is just a piece not the major influence. GEFS wants no part of this theory. With EPS record this month I remain skeptical of either model.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That was the real pattern change.  From 4-6 weeks of literally +10 departures in the means and blowing away warm records, to even near normal temperatures is one heck of a pattern change.  Now that we are getting some good below normal air masses has to bode well going forward.  That switch in later October though was impressive.

Thank you soueaster. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The EPS is a furnace late this month .we can hope it’s wrong I guess 

See this is the kind of posts you make that are not backed  with any facts. Fact is Tolland Ct is at the end of the run forecasted to be climo normal 850s within a degree on EPS, what November is, Mid 40s, rain and meh.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

See this is the kind of posts you make that are not backed  with any facts. Fact is Tolland Ct is at the end of the run forecasted to be climo normal 850s within a degree on EPS, what November is, Mid 40s, rain and meh.

Absolutely correct.

 

And it's his posts like that, that many times confuse and mislead the newer folks trying to learn.  

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

See this is the kind of posts you make that are not backed  with any facts. Fact is Tolland Ct is at the end of the run forecasted to be climo normal 850s within a degree on EPS, what November is, Mid 40s, rain and meh.

Besides that silly voodoo.. the pattern as shown in today’s EPS would clearly yield several WAN days and 50+.. which for late Nov is a furnace. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Regarding the talk in late October of the warmth, November didn’t flip until Nov 7. We have been BN (at least at ORH) since then. -1.3F prior to today.  I only used the idea of a top 10 warm autumn in SNE being 90% of the time an AN temp winter with BN snow. 

It was generally agreed that if November is cold, things could be decent.  I never alluded to it not being possible that November couldn’t be cold.

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that makes sense.  I honestly didn't look at your temps before responding.  Don't know why I read the initial post as saying the ground warmth was eating the snow away despite the cold temps.  But you were 32-35F so that makes a lot more sense.  

 

I'll add that my 8" raised garden beds are still totally snow covered while my lawn is mostly melted. Those upper teens surrounding the beds cool that whole depth relatively quickly down below freezing. 

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK if I agree with this overall as forcing is just a piece not the major influence. GEFS wants no part of this theory. With EPS record this month I remain skeptical of either model.

It broke down quicker AWT thanks to those images. That's my point. I know it goes against the narrative of cold and snow, but it's happening. I'll repeat what I said days ago. The NAO will break down end of month(which it is doing) and hopefully a more dateline ridge/-EPO sets up in December(which some long range guidance has). These graphics aren't voodoo. They are made to look at things differently than traditional Wheeler diagrams. Those diagrams can be contaminated with noise. So far so good. I'm hoping any relaxation is only for a short time, but remember how long it can take if we get that dateline  ridge. It may force a more -PNA at first. We then need it to bleed east. Hypothetically speaking of course.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It seems to me we as a region are a Bit overdue for a region wide 12 incher Even in late november

Will, is it that difficult to Have a bench mark

Track w a polar airmass in late novie

I realize its Not the normal, but given records and anomalous Weather On occasion, it seems we are "overdue"

 

Region wide 12+ is really hard in even late November. Last one was prob 1971 over the interior of New England. We did get some widespread 8-12" amounts in 1987 and as recently as 2014, there was widespread 6-12". 

1989 had isolated 10-12" amounts in SE MA and 2002 and 2012 had some 7-9" amounts...as did 1986. It's really hard though to get 12+ in November. Hardly ever happens on a widespread basis. 

Im not counting the higher mountains of NNE and northern Maine where it's prob a bit more common (though still not all that much even there as powderfreak was just musing). 

Id keep my target at an advisory event if a threat pops up and be pleasantly surprised at something larger.