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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

Its an odd evolution that's for sure on the Euro, Taken verbatim, I'm in that .25-.28" contour but i remain skeptical that we see more then a slushy inch.

Could be the type of thing where you are getting white rain or slush balls falling during the height but having trouble sticking...so maybe you technically get 0.35" of QPF that "falls as snow" but don't have much to show for it on the ground.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Could be the type of thing where you are getting white rain or slush balls falling during the height but having trouble sticking...so maybe you technically get 0.35" of QPF that "falls as snow" but don't have much to show for it on the ground.

The problem has been in the H9-H95 area, Its been pretty torched on all these runs, But like you said, If we can rip for a bit maybe we cool it before we lose all the precip and cash in on an inch or two down below 1,200'.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The problem has been in the H9-H95 area, Its been pretty torched on all these runs, But like you said, If we can rip for a bit maybe we cool it before we lose all the precip and cash in on an inch or two down below 1,200'.

Yeah...I mean I'll be honest, if I was where you are, I'd definitely watch it really closely. Sometimes these things go nuclear and you get pasted at 32-33F for 4 hours and end up with a surprise 4-6" of snow...it's happened before. You just need big time UVVs in the snow growth region and you'll get more latent (and upward dynamic) cooling in the 900-950 range than models give credit for.

 

But on the flip side, I've seen scenarios where I become convinced we can overcome the lowest 2000 feet due to a nuking low, and it just never quite materializes or happens too little too late. So I personally would probably remain somewhat skeptical below 1500 feet until the event is basically underway and then watch closely at the nowcast trends. I'd like to see one more tick stronger with all the dynamics.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...I mean I'll be honest, if I was where you are, I'd definitely watch it really closely. Sometimes these things go nuclear and you get pasted at 32-33F for 4 hours and end up with a surprise 4-6" of snow...it's happened before. You just need big time UVVs in the snow growth region and you'll get more latent cooling in the 900-950 range than models give credit for.

 

But on the flip side, I've seen scenarios where I become convinced we can overcome the lowest 2000 feet due to a nuking low, and it just never quite materializes or happens too little too late. So I personally would probably remain somewhat skeptical below 1500 feet until the event is basically underway and then watch closely at the nowcast trends. I'd like to see one more tick stronger with all the dynamics.

Yeah, Its close and will be watching no doubt, I have been burned by a few miles before so i would not be surprised if we can't cool the BL, Its has been mentioned more then once on here, But if this was another 2-3 weeks later, With cooler SST's, We would be discussing jackpots.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yawn.... too bad we couldn’t muster up anything over the last week. Looks totally boring moving forward... wake me up 2nd week of Dec..... see where we are

Well this was pegged by some as the "Snowy" week...and it didn't and not going to happen.   I wouldn't snooze just yet though with regard to next week, models are all over the place-every one of them, with each run as well.   Things could evolve quickly...but like Will said "who knows?"  

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I will say, that was a nice compromise from 0Z to 12z on guidance.  The GEFS ensembles lowered Heights out west and in Western Canada in the 11 to 15 day, and the EPS raised heights in the exact same area.  It was nice to see the EPS go in that direction. 

Thank goodness the wpo remains strong. If we can get rid of the stubborn troughing in w canada/e pac, we would be ready to roll. With all things considered though, it’s not a bad look. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well this was pegged by some as the "Snowy" week...and it didn't and not going to happen.   I wouldn't snooze just yet though with regard to next week, models are all over the place-every one of them, with each run as well.   Things could evolve quickly...but like Will said "who knows?"  

The best pattern possible doesn’t mean it will yield favorable results. Look at the big picture more and stop worrying about individual swings that cause your uncertainy. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If you go back and look at all the seasonal models, They had Nov being a furnace, I place 0 stock in them.

Yeah...woops.

Even on October 31st, the CFS outlook for November was a furnace. Awful. We noted that the EPO/WPO kind of argued for more chill than some of the guidance was initially letting on...it seems to find a way eastward when the CONUS flow buckles a bit or changes.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...woops.

Even on October 31st, the CFS outlook for November was a furnace. Awful. We noted that the EPO/WPO kind of argued for more chill than some of the guidance was initially letting on...it seems to find a way eastward when the CONUS flow buckles a bit or changes.

Not a one of them, Jamstec, Cansips or the CFS even had temps being at normal for Nov never mind that we will probably end up BN.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The best pattern possible doesn’t mean it will yield favorable results. Look at the big picture more and stop worrying about individual swings that cause your uncertainy. 

Lol...I said exactly that Berg, about a good pattern not necessarily yielding results a few days ago.  And it's not only me who is uncertain about the longer range.   And I'm not worrying about individual swings of modeling at all...I don't know where that ever came from either?? 

 

You don't  seem to be understanding my posts..and perhaps that is my fault for not explaining it well enough...I don't know?  I am agreeing with you more than I think you are realizing...so let's just drop this stupidity... I'm on board with the potential...but right now it's just potential. There are some decent signs already..and Im feeling pretty decent for the season going forward as well. 

And yes the CFSV-2 has sucked since that dumb thing came out...what a joke..I never bought in to any of its nonsense.  

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

really ?   ...if you say so.

i saw five consecutive cold-rain-cold, repeaters through the whole 300+ hours of that run. 

not the front-end loaded winter i had in mind.. haha.   

anyway, it's okay for now, but if we get to xmas with this bs ..it's officially a back-ender or bust. 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

really ?   ...if you say so.

i saw five consecutive cold-rain-cold, repeaters through the whole 300+ hours of that run. 

not the front-end loaded winter i had in mind.. haha.   

anyway, it's okay for now, but if we get to xmas with this bs ..it's officially a back-ender or bust. 

Yeah... nice run I guess. Fails to produce a damn thing for just about everyone though.

 

Things can look great.... let’s see it produce something other than rain 

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