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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I would not rule out some flakes tonight across the region..obviously higher elevations favored. While we should not be surprised the NAM backed down...that finger of moisture shown on the QPF fields seems indicative of decent H7-H5 forcing. Almost all guidance has this. Basically from Berks to ORH into hills of CT may get at least some flakes..perhaps some minor acc overnight if things come together. I could see just inland from BOS getting flakes as well.  It is fighting some drier air just off the deck...but that also will help with evaporational cooling if the rates are heavy enough. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

06 gfs... let the countdown begin...blizzard for all.f312.gif

That would not be good for us fwiw, which is nothing at this stage. it’s pointless to disect but Miller Bs from a sharp nw to se dive rarely transfer and bomb out in time for west of the river folk. 

Still nice to see winter storms in fantasyland over massive ridges.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Rgem has a tenth or two tonight of QPF. Pretty marginal temps and I still think a lot of dry air to overcome. Might be Tip's flakes in the street light and not a whole lot more but who knows...maybe there's a slightly heavier burst in a band or two with the ML fronto that can whiten things up. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem has a tenth or two tonight of QPF. Pretty marginal temps and I still think a lot of dry air to overcome. Might be Tip's flakes in the street light and not a whole lot more but who knows...maybe there's a slightly heavier burst in a band or two with the ML fronto that can whiten things up. 

That's all I would expect/hope for at this point.  Maybe someone gets hit with a heavier batch and a few flakes make it to the ground.   Tolland mulch piles buried

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

As per Ray's info, East based Nina is a pretty solid thing

That Ben guy is probably over-simplifying the reasoning. However, from a physical standpoint...an east based Nina can allow for the WPAC forcing to be a little further east..thus less of a chance for a terrible Pacific pattern. It doesn't always happen...but that certainly is one aspect of it.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We hope the layers won’t affect your aim. 

Doub't it will, Where we hunt its all ridges and valleys, Would be very difficult for another hunter to be in your line of fire, Temps look to be in the low teens on the models here Saturday morning.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

MEX doubling down. 4F CON, 21F BOS, and 13F ORH/TAN/BDL. 

Brian,  what's it have for us up here?  With those kind of numbers and Newfound Lake being 50f something degrees those lakes are sure going to be smokin'.  I just can't believe temps in the single numbers even up here without a snowcover.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That's all I would expect/hope for at this point.  Maybe someone gets hit with a heavier batch and a few flakes make it to the ground.   Tolland mulch piles buried

Yeah it's warm...not gonna be much more than a few rogue mangled flakes I don't think...there could actually be some brief sleet too given how dry the column is in the low levels at the onset. There's gonna be a lot of virga.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  what's it have for us up here?  With those kind of numbers and Newfound Lake being 50f something degrees those lakes are sure going to be smokin'.  I just can't believe temps in the single numbers even up here without a snowcover.

I'm only expecting teens...probably upper 10s for you on the 1k hilltop. Those numbers seem a little low for CON...I'd err more toward 10F.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That would not be good for us fwiw, which is nothing at this stage. it’s pointless to disect but Miller Bs from a sharp nw to se dive rarely transfer and bomb out in time for west of the river folk. 

Still nice to see winter storms in fantasyland over massive ridges.

I betcha that would be ...  I mean, just for schits and giggles speaking: 

That particular solution, ...as is?  That's so enormous it would probably over-come the typical limitations associated with physical geography/atmospheric coupling. 

What you're saying is often true with events that do a "systemic jumps" ..where it seems the primary low just vanishes and the new one detonating seaward balloons a new CCB head and so forth...  We used to call that an RH jump.. and you're right - it seems like you got a nice solid moderate plume on radar and it just gets under way in White Plains NY ...then, the kid looks out the window two hours later and it's utterly stopped.  The radar plumes ... just seemed to mysteriously decay. 

Really what is going on there is that the CAD playing a role in limiting cyclonic motion in that tucked region(s) east of the cordillera; it stops the primary from moving (the topography out west also does play into that).  Then, as the mid-lvl forcing encroaches farther eastward upon the coastal plain and near-by ocean, there is far less resistance to cyclonic motion there, and BOOM!  New low... effectively, abandoning the mechanics for lift back further west. 

It looks like an RH/systemic jump ...but what is really happening there is abandoning the primary surface low in lieu of one that has less kinematic limitation..Plus, with the CAD there, that cold into the back side even enhances the seaward "new" low that much more, while the strengthening warm inflow E out of the ocean is supercharged. 

I know you didn't ask for all this ... just sayin'     Anyway, that whole model can be overwhelmed by bigger deeper bombs though.  Just because of their shear size alone and the "backing" of the CCB/common head region ...think February 1978 as a great example in how PHL eventually even snowed in that - no analog of course.  The fact that the solution we are musing over takes 18 hour to psuedo-close and move out, that means there's probably a lot of that banding penetrating west through the area.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

I get what you’re saying. Of course we just babble now over a fantasy system. There are different mechanics at play with, for example, Jan 11 and Jan 15. It’s not just the track.

I’d still like to see the mid level low track through the ohio valley, the further south the better, on a more west to east trajectory than dive through the great lakes region southeastward. You guys out east and northeast have more wiggle room. In the end, as long as CC mixes or rains, that’s usually a decent sign for us. :lol: 

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