ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 There's some ML fronto tomorrow night so it wouldn't be totally surprising to see a little burst of snow. A lot of dry air to overcome though. Could be a good Virga storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We've got the highest North American snow cover since 2003 right now. 2002 was also similar. I posted earlier in this thread my tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We've got the highest North American snow cover since 2003 right now. 2002 was also similar. What are the top 10? Any terds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw. I would wait until the more reliable models show something. \Yeah - that's something though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: What are the top 10? Any terds? Daily data only goes back to 1997 so we don't have a huge sample. But weekly data goes back to 1966. The problem with weekly data is that we've had a lot of snowfall since week 43 which the latest datapoint in the Rutgers set right now. But yeah, some turds were 2006 and 1972. Both El Niño's. Not surprising...as El Niño falls can be cold. The highest was 1981 it looks like. The lowest 3 were 1979, 1980, and 1988. Those were all putrid winters here. 2011 was pretty low too. Overall I think it's a good sign considering how many horrendous winters are near the bottom of the list but there's some noise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: \Yeah - that's something though lol Can someone elaborate just a tad what it showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Daily data only goes back to 1997 so we don't have a huge sample. But weekly data goes back to 1966. The problem with weekly data is that we've had a lot of snowfall since week 43 which the latest datapoint in the Rutgers set right now. But yeah, some turds were 2006 and 1972. Both El Niño's. Not surprising...as El Niño falls can be cold. The highest was 1981 it looks like. The lowest 3 were 1979, 1980, and 1988. Those were all putrid winters here. 2011 was pretty low too. Overall I think it's a good sign considering how many horrendous winters are near the bottom of the list but there's some noise there. Yea, if its the basis of your outlook, then you're probably posting it on accuwxforums, but it certainly makes for some tinsel on the outlook tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Looks like 2011 was high for snow cover to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, if its the basis of your outlook, then you're probably posting it on accuwxforums, but it certainly makes for some tinsel on the outlook tree. Agreed. You'd rather avoid the really low years all else being equal. At any rate...maybe many of us see first flakes tomorrow night. Would be nice to get that monkey off our back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can someone elaborate just a tad what it showed? Accumulating snow for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: \Yeah - that's something though lol The gfs nam and from what I can tell RGEM all have some fronto. But tough to tell if it's virga, some catpaws, or 2" of slanted mush on Kevin's deck rail. The nam is juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We've got the highest North American snow cover since 2003 right now. 2002 was also similar. If I remember correctly too we were under a massive SE ridge during this time in November 03 as well. It was like -10 in Edmonton for the first ever outdoor NHL game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: The gfs nam and from what I can tell RGEM all have some fronto. But tough to tell if it's virga, some catpaws, or 2" of slanted mush on Kevin's deck rail. The nam is juiced up. It's one of those things because we need the dry boundary layer to evap cool to even give us a shot at snow. Looks like the 00z HREF is coming in juiced too. A nice dProg/dt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, if its the basis of your outlook, then you're probably posting it on accuwxforums, but it certainly makes for some tinsel on the outlook tree. Get rid of the black hole and you'll have decent snow cover. On top of that, we've had a very favorable pattern for dumping snow in Canada despite our torch. That's the -EPO/-PNA for ya. Seattle just got a taste of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's one of those things because we need the dry boundary layer to evap cool to even give us a shot at snow. Looks like the 00z HREF is coming in juiced too. A nice dProg/dt I hope that HREF is a decent tool and not hi res gone wild this winter. It's components certainly can go wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I hope that HREF is a decent tool and not hi res gone wild this winter. It's components certainly can go wild. Yeah - it will be hires GW. But I think trends will be important - plus it's only within 36 hours. So if the synoptics are agreed upon it will probably be a useful mesoscale tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah - it will be hires GW. But I think trends will be important - plus it's only within 36 hours. So if the synoptics are agreed upon it will probably be a useful mesoscale tool. Yeah true. You at least can you trend analysis. I'm still pissed about NCAR ensemble. I thought that was handy. Now we'll have to see how these handle synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah true. You at least can you trend analysis. I'm still pissed about NCAR ensemble. I thought that was handy. Now we'll have to see how these handle synoptics. These are models already out there - just sort of put together as an "ensemble" - so they have some physics and IC differences. If nothing else an easy way to view our mess of hires stuff. Member ICs/LBCs Microphysics PBL Grid spacing HRW NSSL NAM/NAM -6h WSM6 MYJ 3.2 km HRW NSSL -12h NAM/NAM -6h WSM6 MYJ 3.2 km HRW ARW RAP/GFS -6h WSM6 YSU 3.2 km HRW ARW -12h RAP/GFS -6h WSM6 YSU 3.2 km HRW NMMB RAP/GFS -6h Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3.2 km HRW NMMB -12h RAP/GFS -6h Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3.2 km NAM CONUS Nest NAM/NAM Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3 km NAM CONUS Nest -12h NAM/NAM Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3 km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: These are models already out there - just sort of put together as an "ensemble" - so they have some physics and IC differences. If nothing else an easy way to view our mess of hires stuff. Member ICs/LBCs Microphysics PBL Grid spacing HRW NSSL NAM/NAM -6h WSM6 MYJ 3.2 km HRW NSSL -12h NAM/NAM -6h WSM6 MYJ 3.2 km HRW ARW RAP/GFS -6h WSM6 YSU 3.2 km HRW ARW -12h RAP/GFS -6h WSM6 YSU 3.2 km HRW NMMB RAP/GFS -6h Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3.2 km HRW NMMB -12h RAP/GFS -6h Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3.2 km NAM CONUS Nest NAM/NAM Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3 km NAM CONUS Nest -12h NAM/NAM Ferrier-Aligo MYJ 3 km Yeah I saw that. I like the postage stamp viewer to see the different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah I saw that. I like the postage stamp viewer to see the different models. Yeah I do too. Pretty cool stuff with a great UI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Well the RGEM has a similar look with a finger of precip knifing into SNE. It's not as aggressive as the NAM, but maybe enough cooling for some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 In my opinion just given to the long Jevity and magnitude of this warmth we've had this autumn to even have snow in any sense for tomorrow night is incredible. Just to even have a couple of mangled flakes in the street light would be just amazing really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like 2011 was high for snow cover to me. Yeah what are we doing wrong with that chart interpretation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Yeah what are we doing wrong with that chart interpretation? I think Will was looking at 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed. You'd rather avoid the really low years all else being equal. At any rate...maybe many of us see first flakes tomorrow night. Would be nice to get that monkey off our back. Will, is that Cornell site that you use for snowfall climo data down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah what are we doing wrong with that chart interpretation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Can't believe that Cornell site is down...hope its temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can't believe that Cornell site is down...hope its temporary. Rutgers snowlab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Rutgers snowlab They have reliable snowfall climo for the major cities? This is really going to impede my progress on the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They have reliable snowfall climo for the major cities? This is really going to impede my progress on the outlook. Can’t wait to read that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.