Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[Typhoon Tip]

Case in point:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/storm/dont-fire-guns-at-hurricane-irma-florida-police/ar-AArBueQ?li=AAroGDU

[moneypitmike]

methinks  next weekend  may present a bit of a painter's canvas in GC.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

I love these wind overlays with vertical particle trajectories ..

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-42.88,23.95,2104

geek out city!

[eekuasepinniW]

Something to track that's a little closer to home.

[powderfreak]

Today was a top 10 day.  

62/42 this afternoon in the valley.

Full sunshine and a high temp sneaking into the low 60s...average high is 73F so another solidly below normal day.  Tomorrow we should finally get above normal.

Last year it was in the 80s up here at this time...20F higher. 

 

[moneypitmike]

42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today was a top 10 day.  

62/42 this afternoon in the valley.

Full sunshine and a high temp sneaking into the low 60s...average high is 73F so another solidly below normal day.  Tomorrow we should finally get above normal.

Last year it was in the 80s up here at this time...20F higher. 

 

nice.  a toasty 67 here at the Pit.  a real beaut.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

nice.  a toasty 67 here at the Pit.  a real beaut.

Even torchy BTV only getting into the mid-60s with 66/42...seems a decent bit below forecast as there was talk of the valleys getting into the low 70s today.  

Yeah this next week should be awesome.  

[dendrite]

Next 3 days at CON via MOS..

81/43

83/47

83/49

can't beat that.

[CoastalWx]

Wow, some good acid dropped in here this morning.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Next 3 days at CON via MOS..

81/43

83/47

83/49

can't beat that.

About time for the 40 degree diurnal ranges to start showing up in spots...tis the season for those high diurnal ranges.

Already down into the 40s by 8pm at SLK/MVL/HIE/BML.  If we can get low enough tonight, we may be able to do a 40 range tomorrow as 925mb temps look pretty mild tomorrow afternoon. 

TAN and MVY down to 54F at 8pm with significant drops in the past 2 hours...poised to go low tonight as they are leading SNE right now.  TAN should hit a 40F diurnal range tomorrow if they can get down under 45F tonight.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

About time for the 40 degree diurnal ranges to start showing up in spots...tis the season for those high diurnal ranges.

Already down into the 40s by 8pm at SLK/MVL/HIE/BML.  If we can get low enough tonight, we may be able to do a 40 range tomorrow as 925mb temps look pretty mild tomorrow afternoon. 

TAN and MVY down to 54F at 8pm with significant drops in the past 2 hours...poised to go low tonight as they are leading SNE right now.  TAN should hit a 40F diurnal range tomorrow if they can get down under 45F tonight.

 

Dropped to 42F.

[powderfreak]

37F last night up here at MVL, 38F at MPV.

32F at SLK.  

34F for both HIE and BML.

[WxBlue]

This upcoming weather pattern could be perfect for solid leaf foliage color next month. Warm, sunny days with chilly nights.

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

This upcoming weather pattern could be perfect for solid leaf foliage color next month. Warm, sunny days with chilly nights.

Yes...this is actually perfect right now for foliage to max out later on. A couple of very light frosts or near-frosts would be the icing on the cake near the end of the month or first couple days of October to really enhance the fiery oranges/reds even better...but they are probably already going to be quite brilliant with the weather we've had and the current forecast. Hopefully we don't get any nasty storms coming up the coast with wind. Save that for mid/late October.  

[tamarack]

30 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

This upcoming weather pattern could be perfect for solid leaf foliage color next month. Warm, sunny days with chilly nights.

About 15% change in the 'hood, a week or more ahead of average  5 mornings in the 30s helped, and the last time I had milder than 73 was August 22, though that run is expected to end today.

Don't get me started on the property tax at Pit 2.  Ugh!

Tidewater frontage = double the price (sometimes quadruple.)

Interesting discussion of downwardly (im)mobile society, here, there and everywhere.  For a taste of the Maine version, try reading anything by Carolyn Chute ("Beans of Egypt, Maine" and others.)  Stephen King's "Cujo" also offers a slice, though for him the culture is a supporting act; for Chute it's the main event.  It's telling that Chute claims that her husband search included a strong preference that he be illiterate.
Not sure where the SNJ examples might be, unless it refers to the "Pineys", from within the state's extensive Pine Barrens area, which is being gentrified by housing developments, especially from the east.  The Barrens are a classic fire-type forest (nearly 200k acres got torched on April 20, 1963), so those homes may be subject to a SoCal-style fire disaster some day.

[WxBlue]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes...this is actually perfect right now for foliage to max out later on. A couple of very light frosts or near-frosts would be the icing on the cake near the end of the month or first couple days of October to really enhance the fiery oranges/reds even better...but they are probably already going to be quite brilliant with the weather we've had and the current forecast. Hopefully we don't get any nasty storms coming up the coast with wind. Save that for mid/late October.  

I've seen several random trees that had turn over already and red/orange leaves are brilliant in color. A very good sign, indeed.

We'll have to see how much ridging we get the rest of this month and pray a storm doesn't blow these leaves down early, but I'm getting excited! Last year's fall foliage was a disaster for me due to drought and wildfires in Asheville area. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes...this is actually perfect right now for foliage to max out later on. A couple of very light frosts or near-frosts would be the icing on the cake near the end of the month or first couple days of October to really enhance the fiery oranges/reds even better...but they are probably already going to be quite brilliant with the weather we've had and the current forecast. Hopefully we don't get any nasty storms coming up the coast with wind. Save that for mid/late October.  

Agreed this is a perfect pattern for foliage.  I hope it slows it down some or the tourists around Oct 1st may be past peak.  I generally see peak here in Oct 1-10 time frame (Columbus Day is always too late here) with town 5-7 days later than the resort.  

However, running like -7 for the past 2 weeks and a lot of cold, dark damp days relative to normal seems to have caused the trees to say "ok, that's it we are packing it in for the winter".  Days like today should slow it with lots of sunshine and finally a warm afternoon in the 70s after 30s last night.  

I think the lack of sunshine this past week with rain everyday played a big roll in the early switch.

[moneypitmike]

48 minutes ago, tamarack said:

About 15% change in the 'hood, a week or more ahead of average  5 mornings in the 30s helped, and the last time I had milder than 73 was August 22, though that run is expected to end today.

Don't get me started on the property tax at Pit 2.  Ugh!

Tidewater frontage = double the price (sometimes quadruple.)

Interesting discussion of downwardly (im)mobile society, here, there and everywhere.  For a taste of the Maine version, try reading anything by Carolyn Chute ("Beans of Egypt, Maine" and others.)  Stephen King's "Cujo" also offers a slice, though for him the culture is a supporting act; for Chute it's the main event.  It's telling that Chute claims that her husband search included a strong preference that he be illiterate.
Not sure where the SNJ examples might be, unless it refers to the "Pineys", from within the state's extensive Pine Barrens area, which is being gentrified by housing developments, especially from the east.  The Barrens are a classic fire-type forest (nearly 200k acres got torched on April 20, 1963), so those homes may be subject to a SoCal-style fire disaster some day.

pit2 is deepwater frontage.   just got the tax bill Saturday so the pain is fresh in my mind.  i read the beans of Egypt Maine yesrs ago.  i need to do so again.  

 

it appears to be a COC day, 1:00pm temp of 68 at the Pit.

[Cold Miser]

On 9/10/2017 at 9:43 AM, Hoth said:

"The Kingdom of the Settlers." James, are you reading? That is the title of a novel. Some almost Nabokovian imagery in there, Tip, just needs a little synesthetic salt and a sprinkle of caustic mordantcy. As an aside, I'd also posit that most rich people are unsophisticated, or rather that they mistakenly equate a NetJets subscription, a black card in their wallet (or valise?), and a $500 bottle of wine at dinner with sophistication. The population of real sophisticates would fit on the head of a pin. 

lol.  I had a feeling what this meant but I looked it up just the same and was correct in my assumption.

This paragraph has much truth to it.

 

[Lava Rock]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed this is a perfect pattern for foliage.  I hope it slows it down some or the tourists around Oct 1st may be past peak.  I generally see peak here in Oct 1-10 time frame (Columbus Day is always too late here) with town 5-7 days later than the resort.  

However, running like -7 for the past 2 weeks and a lot of cold, dark damp days relative to normal seems to have caused the trees to say "ok, that's it we are packing it in for the winter".  Days like today should slow it with lots of sunshine and finally a warm afternoon in the 70s after 30s last night.  

I think the lack of sunshine this past week with rain everyday played a big roll in the early switch.

Will be at Stowe 24-26. Hopefully catch the peak.

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Will be at Stowe 24-26. Hopefully catch the peak.

Nice!  I think that'll be prime time personally. 

Hit me up on PM if you need any recommendations or info.

[Lava Rock]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice!  I think that'll be prime time personally. 

Hit me up on PM if you need any recommendations or info.

Tried sending PM, but says you can't receive them. Odd. Here's what I was trying to send:

We're staying at stowe mtn lodge for two nights. We're pretty good at finding decent eats, but are open to suggestions. Doesn't look like much is open at the mtn? Would be nice to get some good brew and dinner at same or different place, doesn't matter. Don't mind driving, but if there are any shuttles running, then all the better. Thinking of driving over to burlington on monday, then maybe a short hike (suggestions?) tuesday morning. we'll be heading to NH for an overnight on tuesday. thanks.

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Tried sending PM, but says you can't receive them. Odd. Here's what I was trying to send:

We're staying at stowe mtn lodge for two nights. We're pretty good at finding decent eats, but are open to suggestions. Doesn't look like much is open at the mtn? Would be nice to get some good brew and dinner at same or different place, doesn't matter. Don't mind driving, but if there are any shuttles running, then all the better. Thinking of driving over to burlington on monday, then maybe a short hike (suggestions?) tuesday morning. we'll be heading to NH for an overnight on tuesday. thanks.

I just cleaned out my inbox and will try to respond a little later tonight.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Somebody said no more COC? .....

[powderfreak]

Some early foliage...

[yoda]

Perhaps @HarveyLeonardFan should stay in the SNE threads?  Yikes at his post in the Irma thread

[HarveyLeonardFan]

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

Perhaps @HarveyLeonardFan should stay in the SNE threads?  Yikes at his post in the Irma thread

Why? What do you disagree with? Coastal wx is one of the most knowledgeable and friendliest Mets on this site. He diplomatically commented that some of the questions among new and novice posters were in bounds.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Why? What do you disagree with? Coastal wx is one of the most knowledgeable and friendliest Mets on this site. He diplomatically commented that some of the questions among new and novice posters were in bounds.

I disagree with calling Irma a Cat 2 and that wind gust in Naples as false.  Its in the NWS records... so it is true no matter what you claim about it.  I can't say anything about the mod stuff you claim or CoastalWx posts in the main thread because I wasn't in that thread for a majority of the time

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

I disagree with calling Irma a Cat 2 and that wind gust in Naples as false.  Its in the NWS records... so it is true no matter what you claim about it.  I can't say anything about the mod stuff you claim or CoastalWx posts in the main thread because I wasn't in that thread for a majority of the time

I also take issue with calling the NHC forecast a bust. It's going to end up being a successful forecast for them.

Now you can make arguments about just how good a forecast it was (pretty tight model clustering leading to higher than normal confidence), but calling it a bust is an exaggeration. 

I'm also not sure I'll visit the main tropical threads too much anymore. I found a lot of hyperventilating over warm SSTs and a lot of criticism if you didn't believe the worst case scenario would come to fruition. Every couple of pages there was some meteorology and discussion sprinkled in, but it was mostly "bombs away!"

[HarveyLeonardFan]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I also take issue with calling the NHC forecast a bust. It's going to end up being a successful forecast for them.

Now you can make arguments about just how good a forecast it was (pretty tight model clustering leading to higher than normal confidence), but calling it a bust is an exaggeration. 

I'm also not sure I'll visit the main tropical threads too much anymore. I found a lot of hyperventilating over warm SSTs and a lot of criticism if you didn't believe the worst case scenario would come to fruition. Every couple of pages there was some meteorology and discussion sprinkled in, but it was mostly "bombs away!"

How can you call it a successful forecaster? Millions of people were driving from one end of Florida to the other like chickens with their heads cut off.