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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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perhaps the saving grace of this run is how fast the storm speeds up as it makes landfall... either way, that would be a catastrophe. 

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Media hysteria doesnt start with a +Day 10 18z GFS run...lets all relax here. It is entertaining to see, but common folks. 

after Harvey, wouldn't shock me. 

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1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said:

Yes, big spread between the GFS and Euro.

That worse part? Either solution - or anything in-between - is bad news as well.

We can analyze individual solutions til the cows come home but the big takeaway should be that there's an unusually high chance for a landfalling US system with this one.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

We can analyze individual solutions til the cows come home but the big takeaway should be that there's an unusually high chance for a landfalling US system with this one.

Not sure if you were agreeing with my point or disagreeing, but that was basically the point I was trying to make, so it seems we are on the same page here. And it's not a page I wish we were not, because this is not good.

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6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Media hysteria doesnt start with a +Day 10 18z GFS run...lets all relax here. It is entertaining to see, but common folks. 

Disagree. There is already some degree of run-to-run consistency on the GFS. I think if this continues to the 00z ... even if within 200 miles ... you're gonna start seeing/hearing this hyped all over the media tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, larrye said:

Disagree. There is already some degree of run-to-run consistency on the GFS. I think if this continues to the 00z ... even if within 200 miles ... you're gonna start seeing/hearing this hyped all over the media tomorrow.

At least the Houston TV mets are more focusing on the disturbance in the GOM and really trying to downplay Irma (saying it is "weeks away").  Unfortunately no one wants to freak out an already-freaked out Gulf coast crowd.  IMHO we are still outside of its good range.

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This will get picked up by the media. Remember we are in a hyper-news era with immediacy thanks to Twitter.  OC mets can't simply ignore all the hype thrown there way on their social media platforms. Can you imagine what twitter would be like if we had a hurricane decade like the 50s and 60s around the mid Atlantic northeast? Also, this isn't weeks away-if there is a cat 4 possible landfall next weekend you can bet the media and local outlets will discuss this at length beginning this weekend.  There's a big difference between perceptions of storms which already exist and are out there for days vs a cat 4 storm designation a few hours before landfall.  

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2 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said:

Are you referring to this?

 

gfs_mslp_wind_11L_39.png

It's kinda like that but on a smaller scale. Someone posted a pic yesterday and can't for the life of me find it on the site. 

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5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

At least the Houston TV mets are more focusing on the disturbance in the GOM and really trying to downplay Irma (saying it is "weeks away").  Unfortunately no one wants to freak out an already-freaked out Gulf coast crowd.  IMHO we are still outside of its good range.

You're right. But somehow, whether in it's good range or not ... when there is some degree of model consistency, the media usually sinks its teeth in like a ravenous dog. I think the Houston mets are just too weary at this point to focus on anything else. But they may have to soon enough.

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24 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Say good bye Long Island cat 4 hurricane incoming

 

 

IMG_1561.PNG

Bye. 

When is the last time the models locked in on an east coast landfall for a strong hurricane? I mean, do those ever really pan out...

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1 minute ago, larrye said:

You're right. But somehow, whether in it's good range or not ... when there is some degree of model consistency, the media usually sinks its teeth in like a ravenous dog. I think the Houston mets are just too weary at this point to focus on anything else. But they may have to soon enough.

Their take (strategy) seems to be to report its existance but attempt to wait until after Labor Day (it seems) to start really focusing more on it.  If anything, that will bring the LR models showing it, into a bit more clarity (unless Irma starts speeding up like a bat outta hell).

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If you go to TropicalTidbits and check the GFS trend over the last several runs, it has Irma in the same spot over the sw Atlantic, but the pattern over North America flops all over the place.  Expect that to continue.

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10 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Their take (strategy) seems to be to report its existance but attempt to wait until after Labor Day (it seems) to start really focusing more on it.  If anything, that will bring the LR models showing it, into a bit more clarity (unless Irma starts speeding up like a bat outta hell).

that's almost how I would take her, to a T. let's keep an eye on her, be sure she does nothing funny before Labor Day. That way at least Houston will get some time to cope with what has happened, and the east coast as well as the Canadian Maritimes won't go too nuts too early, causing an unnecessarily ruined holiday weekend. But by Labor Day and the day after, we should have a much better idea on where she wants to go. If anything, most vacationers will be headed home at that time from the coastal holiday communities at that time, which might make things easier come evacuation time.

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42 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:
If you go to TropicalTidbits and check the GFS trend over the last several runs, it keeps Irma in the same place over the sw Atlantic, but the pattern over North America flops all over the place.  Expect that to continue.

 

^This. Yes the overall pattern hints at a CONUS threat. But I have seen this pattern before and yet a stronger digging jet stream more intense than modeled a week out ends up obliterating it.

 

Key long range points from the GFS and ECMWF should merely be increased potential threat but with extreme uncertainty where that threat may pan out -- with a decent chance that pattern could still fail altogether if the jetstream isn't where it is forecast to be 5 days from now.

 

Plus you have such a huge variance between how the ECMWF and the GFS evolve the upcoming amplified trough/ridge pattern between each model, at least the Euro has been somewhat more consistent. All I really want to focus on right now is the more immediate northern Antilles threat. In 3-4 days, we'll start getting more clarity on what region of the CONUS is dealing with this, if any region is dealt a landfall at all.

 

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42 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Their take (strategy) seems to be to report its existance but attempt to wait until after Labor Day (it seems) to start really focusing more on it.  If anything, that will bring the LR models showing it, into a bit more clarity (unless Irma starts speeding up like a bat outta hell).

Meanwhile, ABC Network news and CNN are already both starting to hype it - and the fact that it's a cat 3 way before a hurricane normally becomes that strong.

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