Major Hurricane Irma

[Crazieman]

15 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I'm just glad we are monitoring something with variability. Models have come a long way, it's almost boring short-range forecasting. 

Could get in to a CC fight.

[SN_Lover]

3 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Yeah my two 24-36" blizzard warnings over the last 3 years would like to disagree.


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it's a big argument fest in here tonight. it's almost Friday, it's going to be okay everyone! 

[StormChazer]

Notice the westward wobble. Probably just from the convection exploding on the west side, but still.

 

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, StormChazer said:

She's so beautiful.

[BlunderStorm]

Any thoughts on the NHC's 11 P.M. advisory?

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said:

Any ideas on the NHC's 11 p.m. advisory?

looks almost like she jut came out of an ERC so probs intensifying. (could be wrong but it looked like the eye redeveloped into a pinhole)

[jojo762]

967mb 115mph at 11pm

[SN_Lover]

Has Recon flew into this at all? 

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, SN_Lover said:

Has Recon flew into this at all? 

way too far out unless they can do an refuel in transit.

[ncskywarn]

3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

way too far out unless they can do an refuel in transit.

Fly the G-IV out of PR to do a sample it has a range of 4,220 nmi (7,815 km) that's about 4850 Miles

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, ncskywarn said:

Fly the G-IV out of PR to do a sample it had a range of 4,220 nmi (7,815 km)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml doesn't appear anything is on the schedule.

[ncskywarn]

Just now, Mountain_Patch said:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml doesn't appear anything is on the schedule.

Maybe they will add something for Saturday when tomorrows POTD comes out.

[SN_Lover]

Just now, Mountain_Patch said:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml doesn't appear anything is on the schedule.

This is stupid. We have a major with a possible modeled threat to CONUS and they can't fly out? Just unreal. The GFS didn't get sandy right until they took more sampling and by then it was too late. Crazy the Euro got her right week+ in advance. 

[BlunderStorm]

At this point a recon could (possibly?) be justified for the Lesser Antilles.

[ncskywarn]

7 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

At this point a recon could (possibly?) be justified for the Lesser Antilles.

The Lesser Antilles and the rest of the Caribbean which the US does have some interests in. Besides sampling the environment down there and incorporating it into the model runs may give them a better idea of the eventual track.

[JasonOH]

It's a range issue. They can't just fly out and drop, they need to do a mission around the storm.  The round trip is max 2000miles, since more range is needed for the storm and fuel reserves.

[Mountain_Patch]

Mil folks require 12 hours off for the long of a flight. For all we know they moved a plane down to PR today, and they're currently resting. 

[WhiteoutWX]

I don't see how recon is going to make any discernible difference at this point when the storm is still 4-5 days away from affecting any land areas. Other than to satisfy a few weenies.  

[ncskywarn]

2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I don't see how recon is going to make any discernible difference at this point when the storm is still 4-5 days away from affecting any land areas. Other than to satisfy a few weenies.  

But if they fly Saturday that 4-5 is down to 2-3.

[SN_Lover]

1 minute ago, ncskywarn said:

But if they don't fly until Saturday that 4-5 is down to 2-3.

I know right? All about that $$ in the end. 

[SN_Lover]

4 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Mil folks require 12 hours off for the long of a flight. For all we know they moved a plane down to PR today, and they're currently resting. 

Are they unable to take samples of the ridge or the ULL that wreaking havoc with the models? Don't think so. 

[Mountain_Patch]

2 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

But if they don't fly until Saturday that 4-5 is down to 2-3.

Station 41NT0, Station 41040 are the two buoys to watch. 41139 isn't reporting, and neither is 41300.

[JasonOH]

Remember, NOAA has one GIV, and 2 WP-3D's. That's it.  There are 8 WC-130J's (if I remember correctly). That is 11 aircraft that can fly into/above canes.  The GIV is the only one designed to sample an environment like a ridge, But it doesn't have the range to. Frankly, sending flights over the ridge would be a waste of money based on return at this point. 

[SN_Lover]

Just now, JasonOH said:

Remember, NOAA has one GIV, and 2 WP-3D's. That's it.  There are 8 WC-130J's (if I remember correctly). That is 11 aircraft that can fly into/above canes.  The GIV is the only one designed to sample an environment like a ridge, But it doesn't have the range to. Frankly, sending flights over the ridge would be a waste of money based on return at this point. 

Tell that to the people who lost their lives in Sandy. 

[Mountain_Patch]

We'll be able to watch the hurricane go over guys!!!!!! 41041 has a cam!!

[Windspeed]

Doing flights over the MDR isn't going to improve model resolution at 144+ hours. Calm down. They'll start sampling the environment downstream when we're within 96 hours of any potential landfall so it actually makes a difference in possible narrowing down a forecast track. Right now it makes little difference as the model error would be too great to make a discernable difference.

 

[JasonOH]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Doing flights over the MDR isn't going to improve model resolution at 144+ hours. Calm down. They'll start sampling the environment downstream when we're within 96 hours of any potential landfall so it actual makes a difference in possible narrowing down a forecast track. Right now it makes little difference as the model error would be too great to make a discernable difference.

 

Exactly. There is no reward to doing it now.  And we don't have the range at this point to sample the needed environments. The only possible aircraft to use is the NASA Global Hawk, but it also does other missions besides the long duration hurricane recon.

[NJwx85]

Looks like there may have been an ERC, in any event, it should be a Cat 4 by 11am.

[SN_Lover]

GFS about 10mb weaker at 30. Ridge and ULL about the same if not a tad weaker. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It's virtually impossible to get a Cat 4 in New York.  A 3 is possible but still extremely rare.  CNJ would be worst or somewhere into New York bay.  It's generally hard to get a track that's moving NNW or NW that far north unless you have some sort of deep low capturing it like you did with Sandy.  Generally storms will want to have a slight NNE component in a typical setup which favors Long Island more.  It's probably 5-7 more days before we can seriously worry about a Long Island or New England landfall 

A Category 4 hurricane in New York State (most likely Long Island) would be a very rare, but probably not impossible event.
If one runs a power distribution on land falling hurricane impacts in the Virginia-Maine area, the numbers would suggest approximately a one-in-200-year case. Obviously Virginia would be far more favored than New York.

Although no Category 4 hurricanes affected this area (VA-ME) since 1851, it is plausible that the 1821 Hurricane that made second landfall near Cape May, NJ might have been at Category 4 strength when it moved across the Virginia Capes. 

Moreover, one storm was observed just below Category 4 strength around 40°N latitude. Gerda (1969) had 110-knot sustained winds as far north as 40.1°N, 69.9°W.
The 1635 New England hurricane may have rivaled the 1938 hurricane's intensity (105 knot sustained winds). There is also some sedimentary evidence of an even greater hurricane that impacted New Jersey northward sometime in the 1278-1446 time frame, but other variables e.g., a strike at high tide might offer alternative explanations.