NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Starts turning at hr 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Headed NW at 96... going to be close for east side of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 At hr 96 it's a bit ne of 12z position, so will probably skirt Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Will be interesting to see how much latitude Irma gains over the next couple days. The GFS is taking the eye north of Turks and Caicos while the Euro takes the eye well south of T&C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 It seems to me the trough over the NE is deeper this run, I can almost see a hard right turn OTS. In any event, eye misses FL, and heading North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 897 50 miles East of Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Inclusive of every model I'd still would weight the ECMFW operational and ensemble members to be "more" accurate on the track. It's not a beast it's a monster. Intensity wise Irma has already exceeded therefore draw your own conclusion to how strong it will go. One would think with this much data being digested a 12Z for three days going forth will define the goalposts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 From the BW maps the 0z CMC is following the GFS tonight. Big shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Due north, hello NE SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: From the BW maps the CMC maps is following the GFS tonight. Big shift. CMC isn't reliable with tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks headed for a landfall near Charleston, maybe slightly East of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 0z GFS took a step toward the ECMWF and away from its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ridging building in a tad stronger. Going to be another ugly coastal wrecker from FL through SC/NC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, sbos_wx said: CMC isn't reliable with tropical It's noteable because the Euro has been more like the GGEM than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4waresnowcone Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Beginner question sorry - where are you guys looking to see this new data and determining landfall etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 With that big high parked over the NE, this thing isn't going anywhere E of N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The 0z GFS took a step toward the ECMWF and away from its 18z run. Why because it bumped West slightly? Looks to me more like your tropical wiper back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Ridging building in a tad stronger. Going to be another ugly coastal wrecker from FL through SC/NC area. Because of this, just a few miles can mean the difference between rainbands and the eyewall, leading to another Matthew style extremely difficult forecast for the FL coast from a public safety standpoint. I would definitely error on the side of caution but what if it misses to the east like Matthew? That would leave a sour taste in the eyes of the public. Fine line EMs have to walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deaglesnest Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, 4waresnowcone said: Beginner question sorry - where are you guys looking to see this new data and determining landfall etc? www.tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 0z GFS took a step toward the ECMWF and away from its 18z run. But it was a bit E of its 12z run. 18z was an outlier. I expect to see the Euro move toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pretty catastrophic run for Chareleston and most of the rest of the Carolinas. I continue to favor this scenario over the Cuba to Key West track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said: Beginner question sorry - where are you guys looking to see this new data and determining landfall etc? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4waresnowcone Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Back to back GFS runs that doesn't track it to 80w until its north of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Its hard for me to envision this thing still being a Cat 4 if it makes it to SC. Just seems like such an insanely long life cycle and you'd figure a higher shear environment shows up eventually once you get up the FL coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What's the UKMET looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Why because it bumped West slightly? Looks to me more like your tropical wiper back and forth. You may be right. Let's see what happens with subsequent runs. I suspect that the cone of potential landfall possibilities may be starting to narrow. Anywhere from FL to SC still looks like the region of highest risk to me, with NC also having some possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 At least it's holding together a bit better this run post landfall. The Northeast might get some rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Because of this, just a few miles can mean the difference between rainbands and the eyewall, leading to another Matthew style extremely difficult forecast for the FL coast from a public safety standpoint. I would definitely error on the side of caution but what if it misses to the east like Matthew? That would leave a sour taste in the eyes of the public. Fine line EMs have to walk. Yeah, this is tough...know your message was probably referring to MIA / FLL / Space Coast, but can you imagine the decision for the Keys? Hopefully ECMWF and GFS can marry together soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its hard for me to envision this thing still being a Cat 4 if it makes it to SC. Just seems like such an insanely long life cycle and you'd figure a higher shear environment shows up eventually once you get up the FL coast depends on how much interaction with Florida and if it can stay out over the Gulf Stream. If that's the case then it's game on for Sc. Otherwise I would think a weaker low end cane by then. I like a Donna type track still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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