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Tropical Season 2017


40/70 Benchmark

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hmm, guess they feel they have no choice?  

this thing is some 1,500 miles away from the northern Gulf shores ...and they are certain even to pull Warning triggers. interesting..

I realize the models are reasonably if not better, clustered around a strike there in that vicinity where their various warnings and so forth are posted..  i wonder if their proactive tact is in part hand-cuffed to the idea that his thing is moving fairly fast, and may develop as quickly...  yeah, that's troubling - plan for the worst, hope for the best' may be the course of least regret.  

which that should probably always be the case with tc's...  if this RI cycles passing across the Gulf at cometary closing velocity...   'Wait - dare's a hurritane comin'?' 

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something just doesn't look right about this Nate on satellite...  then I thought to check TPC's discussion and, well - duh...

 

"...Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nate lacks an inner wind core at the present time, with the maximum winds located about 50 n mi from the center..."

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

something just doesn't look right about this Nate on satellite...  then I thought to check TPC's discussion and, well - duh...

 

"...Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nate lacks an inner wind core at the present time, with the maximum winds located about 50 n mi from the center..."

That's changing.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's changing.

yup... quite a bit in the last couple hours actually.   It's getting those insidious black 'off-the-scale' type IR displays too.  

the water is still quite warm everywhere along it's best perceived forecast track.  the only limitation appears to be the amount of upper level outflow/shearing, but it's moving smartly along which reduces the latter. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basically my thoughts exactly. Remember what Katrina did in a similar area. (Obviously not expecting that) but the fact that it's forming an inner core it's about to go boom!

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mm. i'd almost argue overachieving intensity has always been the case with tc's . i've noticed this every year, particularly during those years with abundance in activity..

granted, my memories are, like everyone else, constructed as a mash up between some degree of facts with personal biases, sure.. but from my experience, the ballast of error has always has been on the weak side of verification with tropical entities. this year that 'error' may be uniquely exposed due to the glaring specter of so many examples.

indirectly related subject matter: ..i've noticed a shift in the tact of NHC over (particularly) the last five years with predictions made by that office.  they've become increasingly more model-reliant across the SDLC (storm development life cycle, ...heh, I like that - borrowed from software development life cycle). 

take 91L out there...  that's formulated its self along an old baroclinic axis', which erstwhile was nothing more than the usual SW-NE motion in mediocre cold temperature cloud top elements.  at some point a couple few days ago ...models demonstrated a kink, then eventually that kink closing a circulation - which we see now. bravo for the models! about mid way from then, until now, NHC threw up an X out there and gave it 5%/40% ... 10/50 ...--> 70/70 for short term/long term development chances. However, when it was initially 5/40, there was at that time 0 indication of any kinking verifying in that axis just yet.  so again, that eventuality was nailed by the models ... but, clearly NHC assessed that region in the middle Atlantic based solely upon that source for prospecting.

it's been treating them well, that philosophy this year. the models have actually done pretty good a initialization/genesis. they've done this by spraying more whirls on the depictions than have verified, whereby at least one feature in swarms would tend to succeed.  it's then been up to NHC to really pick the one that's correct ... which isn't hard actually.  you have some ensemble members that spin up every cumulus cloud into a tempest, while others barely dent the PP... but in all that, you have a kind of lowest-common-denominator feature - pull that one out, package an X ...viola! 

this is just an observation - there is no critique/abjection intended by this. if anything, it's remarkable to me that we have crossed a technology threshold ...where the prediction side of Meteorology has evolved tools capable of predicting future emergence of order from the seemingly infinite uncertainty of chaos - at least, the process outlined above strongly suggests that skill is improving.  it used to be ...well, no tools of course, if we go back far enough.  but as far as modeling goes, they always sort of picked up on objects in the atmosphere after the fact, then ran with them out in time.  but this is like approaching the ability to pull system's out of the nebular uncertainty of future. 

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man this thing really is haulin' ass ...it's going to land fall today at this rate...

looks like after struggling to find a core identity early yesterday, this thing has formulated tight nucleus version of one. TPC doesn't elaborate on that specific facet ... just from the appearance on various satellite channels.  it looks like 40 to 60 miles radii of 30 to 45 mph wind gusts, with a small ring of 80 mph wind demarcating a diminutive core.  

with the fast motion and small scope of hurricane circumvallate like that, that 'should' limit the impact ...  unlike predecessors storms this season, that both moved slower and were larger/more intense. 

 

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47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

975

I don't know..systems moving this fast just can't strengthen that much. Could get down another 5mb..  we will see.   that main tropical thread getting me crazy.  Whatever it is I'm excited that the track has shifted north enough up here that I get some 1-2" rain.  Not good for everyone having Monday off but I'll take it.  The kids want water in my pond for skating so got to start the process of filling her up!

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah meh.

Yeah, meh,  very very meh.  A small area east of landfall should have some gusty winds but I hate storms like this and what they do to forecasters.  New Orleans is basically shut down this Saturday night with city wide curfew.  Big financial hit.  Being on the west side of Nate I think the winds will stay very light.  So a storm like this makes the NHC look like idiots as far as Joe Public is concerned especially for the large population center of NO. 

 

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