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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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54 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

3:AM on April 1st, 1997. Would love a repeat, but I think if you're very lucky you get one of these in lifetime. I'll settle for plowable.

IMG_20170330_0001_NEW.jpg

That's awesome.

I know I have never seen a storm like that where its feet of pure paste.  The moisture in that thing was incredible.

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

WTF GFS won't back down, still amazed the warm bias model is still the coldest, what the hell

That high position in Quebec has been trending better and better with respect to the approaching storm since last night. I mentioned it this morning, and the trend has continued. It's a wonder what this season would have looked like if we had more or of these well-placed stubborn highs. They didn't really start showing up until mid march with the blizzard. That's a great look now for eastern MA, north of the pike. No worries regarding easterly flow anymore either. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

#1 on my list....still unrivaled.

Yeah that would be on mine too.  I even had a foot back SW of ALB and I remember that taking down some branches.  Can't even imagine 3 feet of that type of snow. 

The photos from that are just incredible.  Lake Tahoe type snowstorm.

 

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Welcome aboard, pope!

Hah. Listennnnnnn. You got me from Boston up along the north coast. But I had a pretty damn good handle on where the accumulation gradient would set up a few days out, excluding the north coast.

Seeing last night's guidance this morning with that HP trend made me lose confidence in BL issues. I'm caving now, based on the euro and gfs. That's a fantastic position--really doesn't get any better for eastern MA.

Now if I could forecast if my 830 pm  Friday flight out of Logan will be canceled, that would be fantastic...

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The Extended HRRR is a complete torch in the low levels tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow 4pm.

hrrrx_ref2_neng_27_zpsx8xntfzw.png

 

I posted this earlier for 4pm but now that its run out to the full 36 hours it is very snowy for Eastern Mass.  It flashes everyone over in the late evening hours tomorrow night even SE of BOS.

There's definitely some longitudinal benefit to being further east with this...as the HRRRX has all of northern CT staying basically all sleet/zr while further east at the same latitude its ripping snow closer to BOS.

hrrrx_ref2_neng_36_zpsqv4jqamt.png

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3 hours ago, wxsniss said:

For eastern SNE:

This is shaping up to be another mesos (RGEM, NAM) vs. globals (Euro, GFS)... I missed the negative sentiments all morning, but going through guidance now, 12z GFS and Euro both held their ground. Euro even ticked slightly east. Net stable or positive trends for eastern SNE on both, at least for CCB portion.

 

What would be the main driver of a further northwest track?

In the March 14 debacle, it was at least in part intense convection / pumping heights downstream --- something the mesos seem to have a better handle of.

In this setup, it is timing and degree of interaction with northern stream --- something the globals may have a better handle of?

Just glanced at 18z...

Mesos vs. Globals... and the point about mechanisms that could shift guidance northwest in this setup vs. March 14 is holding. (apologies for the self-quote rather than re-writing) For eastern SNE, let's hope this continues to hold up.

So far 18z RGEM and 18z NAM shifted colder towards globals (though still not as cold as Euro), 18z GFS even colder than before... And 18z GFS soundings in Boston are pretty damn close to sub-zero above 950mb throughout most of the event (warmest 3z Sat 850T 0.8˚C).

Always wary of a collective blind spot like March 14, but the trends objectively continue to be favorable for eastern SNE today, especially for the CCB portion Saturday.

I'm increasing my expectations 3-6" in Boston, and likely to go higher if we continue to converge on Euro/GFS combo at 0z tonight.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's awesome.

I know I have never seen a storm like that where its feet of pure paste.  The moisture in that thing was incredible.

Yeah that was something I'll never forget.  We had hours more to go too.  Surprised everyone including myself, I looked out the window and saw about 12-15" on the ground and ran out there to start the trucks which promptly became stuck :o . City  normally would have declared a snow emergency, but as you can see we have cars parked on both sides of the road.  Almost all gone within a week too.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was going to say....temps during the daylight hours on Friday are pretty useless..

Yeah, but I'd rather this start earlier than later.  Though up here it looks to move in during maximum daily temps so probably starting as rain below 1,500ft.

You want to get clouds and precip in earlier to stop the rise.  With H85 temps as they are, any filtered sunshine earlier in the day will cause temps to shoot into the 40s pretty easily.

Part of me knows it will quickly go to snow with any consistent precip rates...but it would be better to not have to wait for it to drop is all I'm saying.  Just a brief aspect.  For eastern Mass the real deal is from like 10pm onward.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, but I'd rather this start earlier than later.  Though up here it looks to move in during maximum daily temps so probably starting as rain below 1,500ft.

You want to get clouds and precip in earlier to stop the rise.  With H85 temps as they are, any filtered sunshine earlier in the day will cause temps to shoot into the 40s pretty easily.

Part of me knows it will quickly go to snow with any consistent precip rates...but it would be better to not have to wait for it to drop is all I'm saying.  Just a brief aspect.  For eastern Mass the real deal is from like 10pm onward.

It will be cranking before dawn...I'm glad it wait until after sunset Friday.

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