ScottGridley Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I just have to ask the experts: The open ocean low at 43N53W is deepening and maybe retrograding....must have an impact on the evolution here. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: All joking aside, the dynamics in this thing are the elephant in the room...and in a good way. I would say anyone forecasting minimal impact should have Bruce Willis caution flags in the back of their mind...even for your area. It's hard to actually forecast gung ho, but I would be quite uncomfortable. Seeing that bowling ball going right under us is asking for positive bust....but we'll see. I never wish bad on good mets but some narcissistic Mets need their arse handed to them this time. Oh how I pray for a positive bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ScottGridley said: I just have to ask the experts: The open ocean low at 43N53W is deepening and maybe retrograding....must have an impact on the evolution here. Thoughts? That's my key, it's a cold air funnel, been watching it like a hawk. Great pickup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I never wish bad on good mets but some narcissistic Mets need their arse handed to them this time. Oh how I pray for a positive bust. I think some are feeling burned by the March 15 storm. Some pretty big busts in that by hyping big totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's my key, it's a cold air funnel, been watching it like a hawk. Great pickup We kinda need that vort lobe swinging around that associated ULL to keep the heights aheadof this system down and increase confluence aloft. If that storm wasn't there we'd probably have too much downstream ridging and this would be a torchfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: All joking aside, the dynamics in this thing are the elephant in the room...and in a good way. I would say anyone forecasting minimal impact should have Bruce Willis caution flags in the back of their mind...even for your area. It's hard to actually forecast gung ho, but I would be quite uncomfortable. Seeing that bowling ball going right under us is asking for positive bust....but we'll see. For sure. I'm definitely concerned I'm too low and seriously considered going higher, but I decided to hedge a little bit on the map as it goes both ways - a small shift colder and we're looking at widespread warning level totals even down to Scooter/Kevin, but a small shift the other way and it's little/nothing south of route 2. I tried to outline the solutions and uncertianty in the discussion and did show what a GFS solution would look like, so I'd hope that if we do verify colder and I end up having to raise totals tomorrow morning there's at least an understanding that it's a possibility. Tough forecast for sure - fun challenge to close out the season with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I never wish bad on good mets but some narcissistic Mets need their arse handed to them this time. Oh how I pray for a positive bust. Everybody needs to get burned once in a while to stay honest. Nobody can claim a perfect record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 12 hours ago, Matthew Gross said: Another key to watch is going to be that huge ocean storm southeast of Newfoundland. If that goes any further west, you're probably talking about an even colder solution here with the Quebec High further west / more entrenched. In many ways, the ocean storm is driving / setting the table for this event. The ocean storm is absolutely a factor in maintaining confluence... this poster above I believe was first to mention it Again I wonder if this is something globals handle better than mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 He made it sound like model charts you ninnies. And what part of that meant I didn't know about the technology. That's an azzholey leap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: For sure. I'm definitely concerned I'm too low and seriously considered going higher, but I decided to hedge a little bit on the map as it goes both ways - a small shift colder and we're looking at widespread warning level totals even down to Scooter/Kevin, but a small shift the other way and it's little/nothing south of route 2. I tried to outline the solutions and uncertianty in the discussion and did show what a GFS solution would look like, so I'd hope that if we do verify colder and I end up having to raise totals tomorrow morning there's at least an understanding that it's a possibility. Tough forecast for sure - fun challenge to close out the season with. Yeah I would stay conservative for sure, but definitely highlight the bust potential...which in this storm I feel has a long distribution tail to the positive side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: We kinda need that vort lobe swinging around that associated ULL to keep the heights aheadof this system down and increase confluence aloft. If that storm wasn't there we'd probably have too much downstream ridging and this would be a torchfest. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Everybody needs to get burned once in a while to stay honest. Nobody can claim a perfect record. It's not even that, it's the condescending cocky attitudes that some exhibit. Thank God not here but being a social butterfly I see and hear things that make me cringe. Like I said earlier many blamed the Euro for their bust last storm when in fact it was their wrong interpretation of model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: It's not even that, it's the condescending cocky attitudes that some exhibit. Thank God not here but being a social butterfly I see and hear things that make me cringe. Like I said earlier many blamed the Euro for their bust last storm when in fact it was their wrong interpretation of model output. There's a Bruce Willis flag right there. Own your bust, don't blame it on a model. Especially the GFS, that's just an easy target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: There's a Bruce Willis flag right there. Own your bust, don't blame it on a model. Especially the GFS, that's just an easy target. Back on subject, what do you think of the GFS and it's odd cold solutions this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 #inthegfswetrust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I'm really interested in seeing if this next NAM run brings the QPF hammer again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Back on subject, what do you think of the GFS and it's odd cold solutions this time Given the mid level tracks, it's possible it stays that cold aloft. I have my doubts that some warmth doesn't sneak in though. But I am rooting for the GFS. Zero QPF for my first week of the honeymoon according to the meteogram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 NAM is still a torch well aloft. Pingers up to C VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 NAM def cooled on the front end though...but it is a mess around 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM def cooled on the front end though...but it is a mess around 09z. NAM still wants to center the warm tongue around H8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: NAM still wants to center the warm tongue around H8. Yeah it has been insistent on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 NAM scoring a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Ugh not what we wanted to see... slightly warmer 850s at 15z Saturday during CCB Hedged conservative until 0z suite with this fear but it's just the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it has been insistent on that. It's really weird to see the differing models not backing down from their major differences so late in the game. Something has to give soon. Date: 24 hour NAM valid 0Z SAT 1 APR 17 Station: 42.27,-71.88 Latitude: 42.27 Longitude: -71.88 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 140 SFC 1000 140 0.6 -0.3 94 0.8 0.2 82 8 273.7 274.3 273.4 283.9 3.75 2 950 549 -2.5 -2.8 97 0.4 -2.6 95 24 274.7 275.2 273.2 283.6 3.26 3 900 978 -2.3 -2.9 96 0.5 -2.6 116 27 279.1 279.7 276.0 288.7 3.44 4 850 1432 -1.2 -1.5 98 0.3 -1.3 153 25 284.9 285.6 279.7 296.3 4.02 5 800 1919 1.5 1.2 98 0.3 1.4 208 36 292.8 293.7 284.5 307.9 5.23 6 750 2439 1.1 0.8 98 0.3 0.9 221 30 297.7 298.7 286.6 313.7 5.40 7 700 2992 -1.7 -2.1 97 0.4 -1.9 227 20 300.6 301.5 287.0 314.7 4.70 8 650 3579 -4.8 -5.8 92 1.1 -5.2 234 15 303.6 304.3 287.2 315.3 3.81 9 600 4205 -8.0 -9.3 90 1.3 -8.5 249 14 306.9 307.5 287.6 316.7 3.15 10 550 4876 -11.7 -13.2 89 1.5 -12.2 246 20 310.2 310.7 288.2 318.2 2.51 11 500 5600 -16.5 -18.3 86 1.8 -17.0 251 22 312.9 313.3 288.3 318.9 1.81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM def cooled on the front end though...but it is a mess around 09z. Cooler or warmer..which is It ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cooler or warmer..which is It ? It's cooler early on but warmer Sat AM...the thermals look so weird though, like these pockets of cooler air and they don't even match with the best omega. The mid-levels still look awesome and they go nuts early Sat...but the warmth just rots there and I'm not sure what the mechanism is for it. It takes a long time to cool back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's cooler early on but warmer Sat AM...the thermals look so weird though, like these pockets of cooler air and they don't even match with the best omega. The mid-levels still look awesome and they go nuts early Sat...but the warmth just rots there and I'm not sure what the mechanism is for it. It takes a long time to cool back. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Jerry will like the new RPM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tossed. I'm leaning that way, but we'll see. It's kind of annoying that each model isn't really budging much. Hopefully the RGEM goes more on the colder side and then I'll feel better about tossing the NAM. At least all the mesos aren't going lockstep like the trend leading up to 3/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Sleet biatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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