40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Up all night? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Ukie cooled quite a bit, though that isnt a surprise considering how warm it was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: GFS caves. Looks pretty similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 GFS, Its a few tics warmer over most of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Looks pretty similar to me. Def warmed some, though still colder than most guidance. With the warm Ukie from 12z cooling, it looks like we're starting to finally narrow the goalposts a bit...except maybe the NAM model. I'm expecting a lot of pellets here with maybe a decent shot of snow on the front and back ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Obs thread is up Rick Logan has moderate in Knox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Def warmed some, though still colder than most guidance. With the warm Ukie from 12z cooling, it looks like we're starting to finally narrow the goalposts a bit...except maybe the NAM model. I'm expecting a lot of pellets here with maybe a decent shot of snow on the front and back ends. Yeah I agree, looks like small ticks either way at this point. The NAM is off its azz but otherwise everything else seems to be heading to a consensus. Looks like the consensus is similar to what the Euro has been showing for several runs now. I'm happy for my latitude for this one. I wouldn't rule out tainting but I'm thinking I dance with the devil but come out mostly unscathed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Nice ramp up on the qpf on the 0z RGEM from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nice ramp up on the qpf on the 0z RGEM from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Conservative clearly was the wiser call tonightAt the moment not much support for going higher than 3-6" in Boston, and we definitely will need good dynamics in the CCB to achieve higher. Still time for that to trend more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 GGEM way colder than 12z...it actually looks colder than the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 The colder solutions ticking a bit warmer as we close in is the least surprising news of all time. significant snow (6+) I think will be confined to the ma nh border on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Conservative clearly was the wiser call tonight At the moment not much support for going higher than 3-6" in Boston, and we definitely will need good dynamics in the CCB to achieve higher. Still time for that to trend more robust. Who gives a rats a $$ what looks better tonight, all I care about is what verefies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2" BOS is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Def narrower goalposts (sans NAM) at 00z. Though Canadian got pretty darn cold. Not staying up for Euro but I'd expect it not to move too much. My hunch is still that the CCB offers the best chance for a positive bust and the front end stuff is the most likely to disappoint. But nothing in this system has been easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The colder solutions ticking a bit warmer as we close in is the least surprising news of all time. significant snow (6+) I think will be confined to the ma nh border on north No way. You won't see it,though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way. You won't see it,though We've never been in the game down here. I'm happy to keep it that way, don't need sand and salt littering the roads again after it just washed away. Either way, more often than not, these late season events disappoint. A much smaller margin for error every single day that passes. Maybe someone in N ORH over to you cashes in, but I'm skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We've never been in the game down here. I'm happy to keep it that way, don't need sand and salt littering the roads again after it just washed away. Either way, more often than not, these late season events disappoint. A much smaller margin for error every single day that passes. Maybe someone in N ORH over to you cashes in, but I'm skeptical It certainly could end up a nuisance, but claiming victory for any side on a boderline event 36 hours out ia silly. Won't know until Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 For the 3 am get up to possibly crowd. Clown map and precip type maps and oh yeah CNE and NNE get crushed day 5 to 7 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I promise you, I will Kill a living organism if this 2002 Christmas Storm type gradient of Me 4" Close Friends 12"-20" happens. Kill I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: For the 3 am get up to possibly crowd. Clown map and precip type maps and oh yeah CNE and NNE get crushed day 5 to 7 again Nice. BOX going for an advisory inside 128 for 2-6". Going conservative to ramp up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Nice. BOX going for an advisory inside 128 for 2-6". Going conservative to ramp up? I mean if the Euro's really a foot for BOS (and not just on the pretty maps which can include sleet or non accumulating snow), then yeah I guess you take 'em up. I still like: 3-6" BOS, 4-8" ORH/ASH/North Shore, 8-12" for the Monadnocks into Central NH and SW ME, 12-16" in southern Vermont. That guy's (Mitch?) hippy plot in southern VT at like 2000' near Route 100 could get a jackpot. Definitely a good southern VT storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, nzucker said: I mean if the Euro's really a foot for BOS (and not just on the pretty maps which can include sleet or non accumulating snow), then yeah I guess you take 'em up. I still like: 3-6" BOS, 4-8" ORH/ASH/North Shore, 8-12" for the Monadnocks into Central NH and SW ME, 12-16" in southern Vermont. That guy's (Mitch?) hippy plot in southern VT at like 2000' near Route 100 could get a jackpot. Definitely a good southern VT storm. That's a good call. I could envision 2" at Logan that ramps up to 6-8" near Winchester. 10" for Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: That's a good call. I could envision 2" at Logan that ramps up to 6-8" near Winchester. 10" for Ray. The one thing that's really encouraging for BOS is that this starts out as like a SWFE. You can see that my house in NE PA at the same latitude (and far more elevation) as POU gets no snow whereas POU gets 2-3" on the Euro..at that same latitude in SE MASS it's 3-6". Likewise, the 6" line is near the Adirondacks in NYS but flirts with NE CT 100 miles east. The position of the high and the WAA from the initial overrunning energy to the Southwest means there will be a bigger longitudinal gradient than most storms. That's why places like Ray and near Portsmouth could get a lot. I'm still kind of skeptical somewhere like Logan. They always get so much less in late season events though 950s are pretty cold. If this is a long duration event places that upslope on east winds could get FAR more than valley locales. Being just a little northwest of BOS w a few hundred feet could help. WaWa may get crushed w that long Erly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Love the 2' the 12km NAM drops on ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 The fact precipitation has already begun for some and that there have only been two posts in this thread in the last half hour says a lot. I'm feeling a bit more optimistic for tomorrow morning's drive to Boston if I go via the Pike. Pain in the ass time-wise, but conditions will likely be a lot better than Route 2. Temp tickled down a little with the sn- 33.3* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 RGEM, ftl http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017033106&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=748 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 38 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The fact precipitation has already begun for some and that there have only been two posts in this thread in the last half hour says a lot. It says people typically are asleep between 3:30AM and 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 38 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The fact precipitation has already begun for some and that there have only been two posts in this thread in the last half hour says a lot. I'm feeling a bit more optimistic for tomorrow morning's drive to Boston if I go via the Pike. Pain in the ass time-wise, but conditions will likely be a lot better than Route 2. Temp tickled down a little with the sn- 33.3* I think the lack of posts is due to most of them not going to bed until a few hours ago. What time do you have to drive tomorrow? Even Rt 2 should be ok by later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I'm worried about sleet getting into S VT and SW NH. The GFS is cold, but I wouldn't touch it with a 10ft pole right now. RGEM/EC blend and call it a day. NCEP needs to go tabula rasa and start anew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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