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Mar 10 Clipper


ORH_wxman

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40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think that's where you guys have to use your knowledge and experience to make a call on what you think will happen....you and Scott have been making comments about how you feel the heavier precip should be a little north of where the models are showing it...I think you go with your gut on this one and forecast what you feel should happen..since the models cant seem to agree on anything at such a short lead time.  What does the Meteorology of the whole thing say??

They had their weenie goggles on, it was never going to come north.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

HA. Well I'll laugh if it holds.

Funny thing is the ukie wasn't that amped last night so it's not like it just held serve or something. It actually trended the opposite direction of the rest of 12z guidance so far. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Too much info/guidance around which results in so many solutions. I know you guys use it as a tool and the more info the better, but sometimes it can be too many chefs cooking the soup. 

Exactly this!!    That's why one has to use their skills and experience especially in a case like this.  What's the old saying... "Meteorology not Modelology."

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It's a little better than the other models, but still a fairly substantial shift south. 2" line is now in far northern CT as opposed to in northern MA on the 0z run. Knowing how the Euro is often slow to make large adjustments, I'd say that run makes it game over for north of the CT/MA border to see anything more than an inch or two.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. Ukie was tell tale sign. Game mf'n on.

 

Just now, CT Rain said:

Euro is bone dry. I'd take under on that QPF.... 925mb doesn't look great.. 850 is a disaster on Mass broder.

hmmm, who is going to win this forecast battle? lol

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Exactly this!!    That's why one has to use their skills and experience especially in a case like this.  What's the old saying... "Meteorology not Modelology."

I by no means was calling out the vets on this. They know what they are doing. It is more for us weenies who end up picking and choosing the guidance that supports out thoughts. TauntingFlizzard would pick the rpm and the meh ncar members, for example. Or Snow88 finding a SREF that shows a roof collapsing at a Brooklyn man bar. 

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