Whineminster Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think that's where you guys have to use your knowledge and experience to make a call on what you think will happen....you and Scott have been making comments about how you feel the heavier precip should be a little north of where the models are showing it...I think you go with your gut on this one and forecast what you feel should happen..since the models cant seem to agree on anything at such a short lead time. What does the Meteorology of the whole thing say?? They had their weenie goggles on, it was never going to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Does the ukmet have a wet bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Did it look wet for this clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Does the ukmet have a wet bias? If it's wet.. Euro will be similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro will come south now that it sobered up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 What the hell...Ukie is really amped...it looks like last night's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro will come south now that it sobered up. Not if it follows bias of following Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro will come south now that it sobered up. Stumbles out of the strip club at 1 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Stumbles out of the strip club at 1 PM. Like CoastalWx in DFW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, mreaves said: Like CoastalWx in DFW? Now that Romo is cut, might be the two of us. One depressed because he's tissue paper, the other missing a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What the hell...Ukie is really amped...it looks like last night's Euro. HA. Well I'll laugh if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z german looks a lot like the uk for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: HA. Well I'll laugh if it holds. Funny thing is the ukie wasn't that amped last night so it's not like it just held serve or something. It actually trended the opposite direction of the rest of 12z guidance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What the hell...Ukie is really amped...it looks like last night's Euro. This is funny. I stay the course for CT. You guys north of the border have a tougher call, gonna be a nowcaster there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Funny thing is the ukie wasn't that amped last night so it's not like it just held serve or something. It actually trended the opposite direction of the rest of 12z guidance so far. Euro double down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Euro double down. And then you have the 15z RPM that just came in...even more suppressed than the 12z run...it gives the northern half of CT zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Too much info/guidance around which results in so many solutions. I know you guys use it as a tool and the more info the better, but sometimes it can be too many chefs cooking the soup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like euro will come in south a bit, but not like the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro still pretty good. Hopefully a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Too much info/guidance around which results in so many solutions. I know you guys use it as a tool and the more info the better, but sometimes it can be too many chefs cooking the soup. Exactly this!! That's why one has to use their skills and experience especially in a case like this. What's the old saying... "Meteorology not Modelology." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 LOL, still pretty wet, but not like 00z. Good hit from MA/RI/CT border east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like euro will come in south a bit, but not like the other guidance. It's pretty darn similar to the GFS with respect to the heaviest axis of snow. I think we have our general solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 See euro in my mind is sort of how I envision it. That QPF field makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro looks pretty healthy still....yeah, not like 00z, but that's a good little event for most of SNE. It gets the good fronto well into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Yup. Ukie was tell tale sign. Game mf'n on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro is bone dry. I'd take under on that QPF.... 925mb doesn't look great.. 850 is a disaster on Mass broder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's a little better than the other models, but still a fairly substantial shift south. 2" line is now in far northern CT as opposed to in northern MA on the 0z run. Knowing how the Euro is often slow to make large adjustments, I'd say that run makes it game over for north of the CT/MA border to see anything more than an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 met fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. Ukie was tell tale sign. Game mf'n on. Just now, CT Rain said: Euro is bone dry. I'd take under on that QPF.... 925mb doesn't look great.. 850 is a disaster on Mass broder. hmmm, who is going to win this forecast battle? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Exactly this!! That's why one has to use their skills and experience especially in a case like this. What's the old saying... "Meteorology not Modelology." I by no means was calling out the vets on this. They know what they are doing. It is more for us weenies who end up picking and choosing the guidance that supports out thoughts. TauntingFlizzard would pick the rpm and the meh ncar members, for example. Or Snow88 finding a SREF that shows a roof collapsing at a Brooklyn man bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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