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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Posted at the same time as you but I am kind of the thought maybe there might be something more in regards to Friday. More so for the northern portions of MD then the southern portions. If there are no objections from anyone I wouldn't mind starting the thread though it has been years since I have.

I really don't think its needed. Only a few of us would see anything accumulate. We can post that in the obs thread. 

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Not trying to throw cold water on the sudden clipper hype, but I can't imagine this is an event in the Baltimore area or south of there. It's just way too warm. Maybe some snow on the grass, and maybe those closer to PA can get some road accumulation if it snows hard enough overnight, but temps and ground temps are just way too warm.

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I just checked the forecast discussion on NWS. Sounds promising....




Attention then turns to potential for rapid cyclogenesis induced
by digging shortwave that amplifies coincident with elongated
baroclinic zone stretching across the Gulf of Mexico into
Florida and eastward into the Atlantic. The evolution of the
surface low will ultimately determine impact across the Mid-
Atlantic and will need to be watched very closely as the
potential for accumulating snowfall exists beginning late Monday
into perhaps early Wednesday (depending on timing of shortwave
and track of surface low). Latest 00z ECWMF/GFS ensemble
guidance indicates ~40-70% chance of 24-hr snowfall greater than
one inch across much of the area...with the operational ECMWF
slightly more bullish than the GFS counterpart
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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Me either. I know my area for jumpers. And that type of storm has suck written all over it for me.

Per the thread Fozz made, there have only been two Miller Bs since I moved to Parkton. One failed, the other did okay. So... I'm not sure what to expect. 

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It depends on where the primary is and how much cold there is in front of a jumper.  Cold doesn't seem to be an issue, so I think if we could keep a primary in Tn/Ky before it jumps we could get a good storm.  Regardless, I just want something to throw a massive slug of precip in here.

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6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not trying to throw cold water on the sudden clipper hype, but I can't imagine this is an event in the Baltimore area or south of there. It's just way too warm. Maybe some snow on the grass, and maybe those closer to PA can get some road accumulation if it snows hard enough overnight, but temps and ground temps are just way too warm.

I agree but a couple hrs of cold rain can do wonders to a warm ground! It definetely needs to trend alittle colder to see any real accumulation though! 

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16 minutes ago, mappy said:

Per the thread Fozz made, there have only been two Miller Bs since I moved to Parkton. One failed, the other did okay. So... I'm not sure what to expect. 

There were two that I could think of.... there may have been others. It wasn't a complete list.

As far as this storm, it will probably fail (let's be honest, the chance of us getting 6"+ is no more than 30% at this point), but it's a good enough chance to stay interested and keep watching.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

There were two that I could think of.... there may have been others. It wasn't a complete list.

As far as this storm, it will probably fail (let's be honest, the chance of us getting 6"+ is no more than 30% at this point), but it's a good enough chance to stay interested and keep watching.

I mean, while not the same type of set up, some people got 6+ in 13/14 from the mid-month system. Hell, there were two systems in March (5th, 17th) that dropped 6+ for many. 

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

For those, per usual, whining about warm ground, it was an icebox last weekend, and it's going to be an icebox this weekend. IF we get snow in the general area on Tuesday/Wednesday, it will accumulate just fine. For godssake, shut up about warm ground.

I think the warm ground was in reference to tomorrow morning :ph34r:

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40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been pretty much just following the snowfall mean on the ensembles thus far in regards to Friday and nothing more. After all the models have been showing a weak disturbance riding along the boundary only amplifying after passing well east of our region and with bigger fish to fry it was an afterthought. But your comment above had me looking back at the projected radar images on the different NAM's and I noticed something that stood out right away. For days now the models have been showing the typical look of an boundary over running event with the light snow on the north and the lighter rain to the south with all for the most part moving due west to east. The last two cycles of the NAM suite has shifted away from this and we now see the more typical look of a strengthening storm with the comma head shape of the precip as it moves through the region. Went back and looked at the GFS op runs and within the last two cycles they have done the same thing. We have also seen this as well on the Euro.

Makes you wonder of what we may see on future runs. I for one will be following this much closer from now on because you never know.

Yeah I have noticed this too. 12z NAM looks like it wants to give coastal NJ a decent snow event.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I mean, while not the same type of set up, some people got 6+ in 13/14 from the mid-month system. Hell, there were two systems in March (5th, 17th) that dropped 6+ for many. 

I think the warm ground was in reference to tomorrow morning :ph34r:

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Not to mention @Fozz people like HighStakes pulled out 8" at the end of March in 2014. 

... so its possible. 

I'm not saying it can't happen, all I'm saying is that with this much uncertainty and with still being 5 days away, the chance of this becoming a big storm is less than 50%. Maybe I should've worded it better. I'm definitely not cancelling this like BaltWxguy, so no worries :) 

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I'm not saying it can't happen, all I'm saying is that with this much uncertainty and with still being 5 days away, the chance of this becoming a big storm is less than 50%. Maybe I should've worded it better. I'm definitely not cancelling this like BaltWxguy, so no worries :) 

All good buddy! :) 

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

More intrigued with the snow squall potential tomorrow evening than anything that falls during the day.

Yes, very interesting.

Counties over the PA line have this NWS wording, granted it is up North,  but not that far for those in the North sections of our area.   

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
648 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

PAZ035-036-063>066-101200-
Fulton-Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
648 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a significant threat for dangerous snow squalls during the
late morning and afternoon hours Friday that could cause brief
whiteout conditions and flash freezing of roads and bridges.

 

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43 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For those, per usual, whining about warm ground, it was an icebox last weekend, and it's going to be an icebox this weekend. IF we get snow in the general area on Tuesday/Wednesday, it will accumulate just fine. For godssake, shut up about warm ground.

can we complain about sun angle??  :D.  You'd think that as many times as the mid atlantic has seen march snows....this fallacy would be put to rest.

 

Nut

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