Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowbelt said: I usually keep my mouth shut as I can't read models etc but had to chime in with a 'thumbs up' in response to this post. I'd miss reading your analysis to threats Typhoon Tip but man, lately, you have really come across as condescending and frankly, annoying. Lighten up! If the as depicted doesn't come to fruition then life goes on and all the snow/storm lovers in here know that. Welp - as they say in journalism, if you're not pissing someone off you are probably not writing something important no, no deeper seeded intents/regards over this way that require condescension - perhaps if you are interpreting things that way, you should be more specific. I admit to pedantic style with some of this stuff, but that's because I enjoy it - that's not lording anything over anyone. weather has a science behind it - if there's something specific you don't understand, just ask - i'll explain my self differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 No dedicated thread, or am I jinxing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 54 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I always thought convective feedback was more of an easterly thing...like convection running out ahead causes the model to focus on that area of lift instead of where the best upper level support is? More that than less..sure. I nice generic definition for convective feedback is how the models incorporate the vertical profile of changes in temperature and moisture, more importantly how it handles those inputs from latent heat of condensation off of convective processes at grid points.. This may have been corrected for, but the models use to overlap at those and end up with surpluses that went on to vorticity production ... next thing you know, it's got a way to carve the whole thing east in time. Not sure if that's true any longer - perhaps Ocean' or someone with inside into the modelers may know more. Either way, you still get some of that effect from convective processing. Not sure who brought it up but they were spot on (earlier) re the southern wave possibly going nuts because ... once we get deeper into March and we're talking the Gulf interface region, ...that's like just floating a match over an accelerant - ...all that latent heat liberation and uvm will likely do some additional feedback into trough morphology - the problem, how much. interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Re the 18z GFS operational...I'd like to see this vortex under LI, not overhead - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you didn't ask me but I'd say the NAVGEM has an existence bias - sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 camps on the GEFS Inland and west of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2 camps on the GEFS Inland and west of the BM Strong signal but inland runners I am skeptical about since eps did not have any. Im talking HV runners. running over Ginx and JCs yard is certainly possible. Its a track that we havent seen in a very long time but that doesnt mean it cant happen. Unless the system is related by blood to Jan 05 or 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The Ukie was offshore at 0z. A hugger, but not inland. Check the 120 hr depiction, which shows it S of LI. To get from there to where you show it @ 144 hr means it went over E RI and SE MA. You can call it a hugger, but it still went inland. Why do people argue over things like this, and overlook the main point of the comment? My original point was that the Ukie and the Euro, among others, are tracking much differently in how the outcome of this storm will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Check the 120 hr depiction, which shows it S of LI. To get from there to where you show it @ 144 hr means it went over E RI and SE MA. You can call it a hugger, but it still went inland. Why do people argue over things like this, and overlook the main point of the comment? My original point was that the Ukie and the Euro, among others, are tracking much differently in how the outcome of this storm will play out. You'd be fine with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The 18z GFS moved towards a EURO track, not surprising, given that it was on the other side of the guidance envelope. It will be interesting to see the NAM and SREF get the storm in range which should be entirely in their runs by 00z Sunday. I would say a mega storm possibilities lie at 65%, while an out to sea solution is around 5% and an inland track is about 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I don't think this storm cuts across SNE, I think it is a Benchmark or east track to be honest, I was looking forward to the Blizzard of 2005 sexy talk earlier this afternoon while the EURO came in. The EURO has been consistent now for the past two runs with this benchmark track showing a full blown blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And then it runs up over Ginxys roof. Unless I moved to Narragansett Bay,no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2 camps on the GEFS Inland and west of the BM The mean is virtually unchanged from 12z @ 102 hr and 108 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z GEFS for those curious. Its a live link so you can copy it and change the time for panels before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm liking a canal track or benchmark track. EPS is the best ensemble model and looks to be benchmark or slightly west of it. EPS >GEFS for me at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm sticking with the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 18z GFS moved towards a EURO track, not surprising, given that it was on the other side of the guidance envelope. It will be interesting to see the NAM and SREF get the storm in range which should be entirely in their runs by 00z Sunday. I would say a mega storm possibilities lie at 65%, while an out to sea solution is around 5% and an inland track is about 30% This is all completely worthless but the NAM at 84 hours was ridiculously amped. The DGEX (which is an extension of the NAM, and that shows how reliable it should be, ha ha) at 18z went from the NJ Coast to northern New Hampshire for a track. Its no surprise though that the NAM gets amp happy and will phase that thing into a bomb most likely once it gets into its range. Hours 60-84 on the NAM are sure to be wild as we get into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z GEFS for those curious. Its a live link so you can copy it and change the time for panels before and after. Most of these look like crap for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm sticking with the canal. That would be where my money is at right now, too, or a bit east of there. Over the Cape/Elbow is my lean right now...though may kick that eastward after 00z if the EURO holds rock steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Briz600 said: Most of these look like crap for me. But this doesn't. Hypothetically speaking, say the GFS is the "worst-case" scenario for you as a snow lover. It still drops a widespread 10-15" prior to a dry slot. We are at the point where 10-15" looks like crap. The inflow and WCV is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I'm liking a canal track or benchmark track. EPS is the best ensemble model and looks to be benchmark or slightly west of it. EPS >GEFS for me at the moment I'm roughly splitting the difference between the Euro and GFS and putting it over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 49 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: "Yea tide goes in tide goes out never a miscommunication"-Bill Orielly Feb 10 it went in and didn't go out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, Briz600 said: Most of these look like crap for me. Just ignore the EPS east of CC? Almost every member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just ignore the EPS east of CC? Almost every member I think he was saying he wasn't impressed with the GEFS that he quoted...nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just ignore the EPS east of CC? Almost every member The EPS looked great, but the GEFS worries me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just ignore the EPS east of CC? Almost every member 5 Euro runs left in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 5 Euro runs left in the period I do wish we had less model runs, haha. Twice a day is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Briz600 said: The EPS looked great, but the GEFS worries me a bit. I wouldn't even bother looking at that nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I do wish we had less model runs, haha. Twice a day is nice. I remember when there was only one euro run per day at 12z and it didn't come out until 8pm. That was around 2001 or 2002. I think they added the 00z run in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I remember when there was only one euro run per day at 12z and it didn't come out until 8pm. That was around 2001 or 2002. I think they added the 00z run in 2002. Yes lol I remember the first real Dr No run in 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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