CT Valley Snowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 If the Euro was the furthest west I would be more concerned in the western zones at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 No one should be worrying about anything right now for this one either way, There is still going to be fluctuations with the OP runs, The Ensembles are holding steady i would be placing positives in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: yup...since I moved up here December 2014, it seems to be the case. Nah, I wouldnt worry here. I just had time to look at the euro on meteocentre, which can be a bit better than TT for it, and it deff moved in the right direction from 0z. We wouldnt want gfs huggy solution either, though it isnt bad. So if we can get the two to move to each other, which I believe is a pretty decent bet at 4 days out....we got it. Even if we hedge euro 70/30 to gfs, that is a ridiculous endgame. Yes, if you look at weenie map printouts from the euro run it seems like they are stealing our snow but I would not sweat those maps yet, or even at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro ensembles really liking the 3/18 threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles really liking the 3/18 threat too. Could be bigger than even the Tuesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: No one should be worrying about anything right now for this one either way, There is still going to be fluctuations with the OP runs, The Ensembles are holding steady i would be placing positives in that. both eps and gefs have been rock solid, have not wavered. 12z gefs were east of op too which is good for the rain worriers. I mean, at this juncture, it is getting silly with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good, Some of us do have lives outside AMWX...............lol LOL. Thanks for reaching out folks--it's nice to be missed. All is okay. I've been swamped of late and have been able to do little more than look at the NWS forecast recently. I managed to have a work-from-home-day today. It seems like the first in a long time that I haven't been driving to Boston. I have been able to lurk a little over the last couple days, and I hear a rumor we may get a little snow next week.....I'll keep my fingers crossed we do better than the 4 flakes I saw today. Of course, now I wonder where I may be better off: Pit1 or Pit2. I'm inclined to think here at this point, but if this ends up being an eastern special with wind, I might need to find an excuse to go up there. Thanks for checking in on me. I feel like the great aunt that you needed the police to make a 'well-being' visit to. 29/16 clearing. 4 flakes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah, I wouldnt worry here. I just had time to look at the euro on meteocentre, which can be a bit better than TT for it, and it deff moved in the right direction from 0z. We wouldnt want gfs huggy solution either, though it isnt bad. So if we can get the two to move to each other, which I believe is a pretty decent bet at 4 days out....we got it. Even if we hedge euro 70/30 to gfs, that is a ridiculous endgame. Yes, if you look at weenie map printouts from the euro run it seems like they are stealing our snow but I would not sweat those maps yet. Oh i know...No worries here, just nice to see this threat at the 4 day point and still on all of the models. I will be happy with a foot of wind driven snow in the middle of March. However, deep down I would be upset missing out on an extra foot 100 miles to the east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Could be bigger than even the Tuesday storm? Well considering Tues hasn't happened yet...sure it could. But as modeled, it is not nearly impressive as Tuesday's. It is still a very good sig this far out though for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 I dunno .. the targeted ignoring seems to be pretty evident in here. That Euro synoptic evolution, while certainly not impossible... is waaaaay less than that which should be instilling any confidence whatsoever. That's a hugely complex handling there, of dumbbelling those U/A features, while simultaneously using convective/cyclogenic feed-backs to deepen the lead like that... That is incredibly fraught with reasons not to be confident, actually. I can just see this thing turning into some for or another of a major anti-climatic disappointment, and people acting surprised ... just don't be if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Spanks45 said: Oh i know...No worries here, just nice to see this threat at the 4 day point and still on all of the models. I will be happy with a foot of wind driven snow in the middle of March. However, deep down I would be upset missing out on an extra foot 100 miles to the east.... Jan 15 haunts me, I admit. Maybe why I still harbour ill will to the euro like an abuse victim. Point is, it is not perfect so anyone that latches onto it, even inside 48hrs can get stucked into the blackhole. I learned my lesson with that one and while the ghost follows me around from Dec to Mar, I know how to better deal with it nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Well considering Tues hasn't happened yet...sure it could. But as modeled, it is not nearly impressive as Tuesday's. It is still a very good sig this far out though for a mean. It's funny how we were pretty meh for a lot of the winter and now this happens. March 1956 sounds like a good analog for multiple events to track and it was a la nina. March 1958 perhaps also, although that was an el nino. Although with what the Euro is showing in terms of totals and wind, a more appropriate analog for the next storm might be March 1960 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: both eps and gefs have been rock solid, have not wavered. 12z gefs were east of op too which is good for the rain worriers. I mean, at this juncture, it is getting silly with it. And that right there is telling enough to know that this is more then likely coming, Now, Its just a matter of seeing what direction the mean moves as to what side the members are favoring which will give you the indication of track until we get in OP range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno .. the targeted ignoring seems to be pretty evident in here. That Euro synoptic evolution, while certainly not impossible... is waaaaay less than that which should be instilling any confidence whatsoever. That's a hugely complex handling there, of dumbbelling those U/A features, while simultaneously using convective/cyclogenic feed-backs to deepen the lead like that... That is incredibly fraught with reasons not to be confident, actually. I can just see this thing turning into some for or another of a major anti-climatic disappointment, and people acting surprised ... just don't be if that's the case. Someone will always be disappointed though, right? Anyway, what are your concerns? mucked up phasing? too much causing an inland runner? What would you weigh more at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: LOL. Thanks for reaching out folks--it's nice to be missed. All is okay. I've been swamped of late and have been able to do little more than look at the NWS forecast recently. I managed to have a work-from-home-day today. It seems like the first in a long time that I haven't been driving to Boston. I have been able to lurk a little over the last couple days, and I hear a rumor we may get a little snow next week.....I'll keep my fingers crossed we do better than the 4 flakes I saw today. Of course, now I wonder where I may be better off: Pit1 or Pit2. I'm inclined to think here at this point, but if this ends up being an eastern special with wind, I might need to find an excuse to go up there. Thanks for checking in on me. I feel like the great aunt that you needed the police to make a 'well-being' visit to. 29/16 clearing. 4 flakes down. Good to see your ok Mike, I had the search party a week or so back looking for me as well as i was kicking off some new products to market for a two week stretch, Just so happend to be the time we torched anyways............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Well I say it's time to have a Panic Party! Panic that the whole I 95 corridor shuts down and Vlad parachutes into DC with a million Russki marines in winter whites Panic that my supermarket runs out of milk before I get to it Panic that this things whiffs Panic that it runs up the Hudson Valley Panic that its a mega blizzard and the huge old maple outside my study crashes in on my while I'm typing in temperatures Celsius and measurements in cm to tick the English measurement crew off... So much to panic about and only 4 days left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good to see your ok Mike, I had the search party a week or so back looking for me as well as i was kicking off some new products to market for a two week stretch, Just so happend to be the time we torched anyways............lol That was convenient. I'm heading up to Bath tomorrow. The last time I was there there were 3 feet of snow on the ground. What a difference a couple weeks will have made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well considering Tues hasn't happened yet...sure it could. But as modeled, it is not nearly impressive as Tuesday's. It is still a very good sig this far out though for a mean. Is the setup cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good to see your ok Mike, I had the search party a week or so back looking for me as well as i was kicking off some new products to market for a two week stretch, Just so happend to be the time we torched anyways............lol We have to check on the Elderly from time to time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Someone will always be disappointed though, right? Anyway, what are your concerns? mucked up phasing? too much causing an inland runner? What would you weigh more at this point? well... what I'm concerned about is what I just said; that handling of those two mid level features is exceptionally complex; it's an odd sort of total evolution as I pointed out, and at day 5+ it's not in the euro's wheelhouse (btw -) my biggest "fear" (for lack of better word) ... is that the N-stream comes bullying down to subsume/phases more ..but, because the wave length argument is in fact position westerly biased, it takes advantage of that and results in one of those hooks left into the upper cordillera of the Apps. That's how those types happen... This Euro run just fails capture.. If does, this idea is in trouble. guys - This run is just lucky really... seriously, in that it keeps the N-stream sort of out of the way while the southerly wave goes mad along the EC and rides up like a cometary trajectory ..on up and out... then, the N-stream's core comes sort of lollygagging through on as a caboose consideration. Norlun - ...I mean wow, there's other things... What if we got a light to midland fast mover, followed by a 12" of fluffy norlun thump... oh m g the possibilites.. Frankly, ... though the time distance makes almost irrelevant, the latter system actually is the one with the far better wave spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Is the setup cold enough? Verbatim yeah...but it's def a more marginal airmass though than this one. But I think it would be snow for just about everyone on that setup....maybe south coast would struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We have to check on the Elderly from time to time A couple of years ago, one of the elder statesmen at our golf course was killed cutting down a big maple tree. He was 85. I could see that being MPM, if he doesn't accidentally get strangled by his shawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... what I'm concerned about is what I just said; that handling of those two mid level features is exceptionally complex; it's an odd sort of total evolution as I pointed out, and at day 5+ it's not in the euro's wheelhouse (btw -) Tip it's not 5+ days out anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We have to check on the Elderly from time to time lol, Man oh man, Am i having some fun with the folks that thought winter was over, I told them its the groundhogs fault.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 EPS gets pretty cold this month. Torch fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Tip it's not 5+ days out anymore. By day 5+ storm is well underway. @48h we have the pieces over W Dakotas and S Louisiana. @72h C IA and just off W FL. @96h 2 streams are merging off HAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Tip it's not 5+ days out anymore. oh, 4.5 ...okay - that changes everything - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh, 4.5 ...okay - that changes everything - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Large bump west though with the all important QPF....tickle tickle. By doing that it brings more snow to everyone. Don't fear the west trend ;). thanks for posting this PF, i am optimistic about this one ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh, 4.5 ...okay - that changes everything - First flakes fall in CT by hour 96. Day 4. That is 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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