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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Here's an interesting question.  When looking back at temperatures anomalies (either for a month or multiple months) what is theoretically the "best" base period to choose?  For example, say you're looking at temperature anomalies for like DJF of 1954.  On this site:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ they don't have a 30-year base period which would see to fit well.  I mean you don't want to necessarily compare to the 1981-2010 average as the results will be slightly skewed due to warming and such.  The earliest period they really have is 1950-1995 but that as well would slightly skew things.  I guess in the end you could argue that the differences aren't all that much but in the end the results are still skewed.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dendrite said:

How much for West Chesterfield so far? 


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1217 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017

MAZ001-VTZ013-014-141000-
Northern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida,
North Adams, Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal,
Stratton, and Londonderry
1217 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017

...Snow of varying intensity will fall at elevations above 1500
feet overnight across the northern Berkshires and southern Green
Mountains...

Temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 30s tonight across
the northern Berkshires and southern Green Mountains at elevations
above 1500 feet and as a result the precipitation has turned to
snow. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected.

There could be locally slippery travel especially across the
highest terrain.
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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I love your AFD out of Taunton! Wish i could be up there to jebwalk in your windy mid 40s rain!!!!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 

000
FXUS61 KBOX 140214
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1014 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A late season coastal storm will bring moderate to heavy rain
tonight into Sunday morning. Scattered showers and gusty winds
will persist Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon as the storm
system will be slow to move away from the region. Thereafter, a
significant warming trend begins Tuesday and peaks on Thursday
ahead of an approaching cold front. More seasonable air returns
by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

1030 pm update...

Widespread light to moderate rain with embedded heavier showers,
maybe a rumble of thunder, continues. With the more moderate to
heavy rain, already observing lower visibilities. No issues with
regards to flooding, however the nuisance flooding issues are
more than likely with ponding of water on area roadways during
periods of heavier rain, this in addition to lowered visibility.
Focus within typically prone locations to flooding (i.e.,
culverts).

The storm track more offshore and progressive than originally
led to believe, rainfall amounts with the 4p forecast update
were lowered. Anticipating a 1-inch average rainfall across the
region with locally higher amounts perhaps up to 2-inches over
E/SE portions of MA, perhaps into CT. Though radar exhibiting
some high reflectivity (dBZ) and subsequent radar-estimated rain-
fall amounts this is in error. Contamination ongoing as the
radar beam is intercepting areas where precipitation aloft is
mixed between frozen and liquid precipitation types. Ground-
truth is essential during the overnight period in interpreting
the rainfall impact.

With deep layer cyclogenesis occurring beneath the bulk of mid to
upper level synoptics, the atmosphere is responding accordingly.
Already observing surface pressure falls on the order of 1 mb
per hour, and with balance trying to restore, winds are beginning
to accelerate with gusts 25 to 30 mph being reporting along the
S-shoreline of New England beneath the H925-85 jet max from the S.

As the deepening of low pressure continues, both the tightened
pressure gradient and isallobaric response of the wind should
deliver stronger NE flow along E MA into the morning hours. WIND
ADVISORY still in effect for gusts in excess of 45 mph mainly
during the early into mid morning hours for Sunday.

Rest of the forecast is on track and hats off to the day-crew
for doing a great job. Mild overnight with lows in the 40s.
Otherwise, a Happy Mother`s Day to all the Mom`s out there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Low pressure not quite as deep as previous model runs, but
still lowers to 990-995 mb by Sunday morning. Noting 50 kt H925
jet passing close to the S coast tonight then, as the low passes
E of Cape Cod Sunday, winds back to N-NW with another jet
wrapping around the low. While the low level mixing it not that
good, still have tight pressure gradient so should see gusts up
to 25-30 kt. At this point, sustained winds and gusts remain
below advisory criteria but will continue to monitor this
aspect.

As the low moves NE on Sunday, heaviest rain moves with it.
Have forecasted QPF amounts of 1-2 inches, with bullseye of 2.5
inches possible across E coastal Mass through 8 PM Sunday.
Showers will linger into Sunday evening as the low slows down
as it moves into the western Gulf of Maine.

 

I LOVE YOUR WEATHER SO MUCH!!!!!!!! Whats not to like?

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Here's an interesting question.  When looking back at temperatures anomalies (either for a month or multiple months) what is theoretically the "best" base period to choose?  For example, say you're looking at temperature anomalies for like DJF of 1954.  On this site:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ they don't have a 30-year base period which would see to fit well.  I mean you don't want to necessarily compare to the 1981-2010 average as the results will be slightly skewed due to warming and such.  The earliest period they really have is 1950-1995 but that as well would slightly skew things.  I guess in the end you could argue that the differences aren't all that much but in the end the results are still skewed.  

Not sure of a "best" way to look at that.  When I've done it for the local co-op. I've chosen the 30-year period in which the subject year is most nearly centered; for 53-54 it would be 41-70.  However, at that time the normal would've been based on the most recent full 30, that being 21-50.

GYX had a report of 4" at 1,700' somewhere in SW NH.  Mt. Monadnock would be an interesting climb this morning.

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