CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Well next up RGEM which I would put more weight on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, db306 said: we crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 James not gonna be too happy with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, db306 said: James not gonna be too happy with this run. He doesnt believe it, then he does, then he doesnt. its what gives CC MA USA the most. I kid, I love you james! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Verbtaim that is 9-14 over most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well next up RGEM which I would put more weight on. Yup. Need it not keep that se tick it did from 0z to 6z. wont matter for you lol but MPMs and CodFisherman lives are at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well next up RGEM which I would put more weight on. Agreed. While a solid solution, the NAM still seems to be wavering back and forth. Looks like it went wild with that lead piece of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Verbtaim that is 9-14 over most of the region. Ya nice solid event for most. Good to see that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Ct DEHS DEMHS External Winter Storm Update 2-8-17 815 AM.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Agreed. While a solid solution, the NAM still seems to be wavering back and forth. Looks like it went wild with that lead piece of energy Circled for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 James would rip on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Circled for reference. Yeah that's what hi res models can do...get weird with those little vorts. I'd wait to see what the others do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that's what hi res models can do...get weird with those little vorts. I'd wait to see what the others do. 6z GFS had it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that's what hi res models can do...get weird with those little vorts. I'd wait to see what the others do. Without out, all the snow in western areas becomes more mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The 12z nam brought the banding further back to the NW this run, 06z Nam was a couple tics east of there, Just based off the clown map you can see the better banding 06z & 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Crusher http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Glad to see most everyone in for something good. Magical thinking now is some monster bands over ORH county into NE CT, NWRI, up into Merrimac Valley/Cape Anne, with secondary bands over Berks. Minimal subsidence outside the bands. (Note: I did say magical thinking, my new term of the week). Reality looks pretty good as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Yeah you can see how the high res stuff gets cute with bands. It's tough to take verbatim though as the hi res models can shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well next up RGEM which I would put more weight on. Hoping its a bit W of 6z run. I thought 6z was pretty paltry W of Framingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hoping its a bit W of 6z run. I thought 6z was pretty paltry W of Framingham. Yeah can afford some west ticks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 a 10" storm is good, but it's still a bit of a pooper compared to some recent winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah you can see how the high res stuff gets cute with bands. It's tough to take verbatim though as the hi res models can shift around. I was just looking and didn't realize how fast this thing moves through... that 12z NAM is like 6-9 hours of snow. Holy crap its going to nuke for those hours...should be like a 6 hour orgasm lol. The big amounts on those snow maps though give me pause. Its gotta go bonkers to get 12-16" in that period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 That's why western guys especially in orographically to inflow prone areas jumped too early. ORH hills to TOL to mpm will jack with a secondary jack over interior SE MA and most of NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: I was just looking and didn't realize how fast this thing moves through... that 12z NAM is like 6-9 hours of snow. Holy crap its going to nuke for those hours...should be like a 6 hour orgasm lol. The big amounts on those snow maps though give me pause. Its gotta go bonkers to get 12-16" in that period of time. The key is to see how the band slows the eastward movement as low pressure develops. Where that happens is where best snow will be. So it does not close off and pivot like classic KUs...but where it slows is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Whineminster said: a 10" storm is good, but it's still a bit of a pooper compared to some recent winters. lol. Tell that to Eastern NY up through BTV. This is an awesome event for one that sort of snuck up. The alternative was a cape scrapper like 72 hours ago. I'd be very stoked in SNE for anything over 6" that falls in this. And its not like some 8-12" in 18 hours deal... this should be pretty exciting while it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I put little faith in the NAM wrt jackpots... as mentioned, what it is doing with the tight vorticity is so tenuous. Who really knows where that sets up We await the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The key is to see how the band slows the eastward movement as low pressure develops. Where that happens is where best snow will be. So it does not close off and pivot like classic KUs...but where it slows is key. Yeah makes sense. I was just looking at that 4km NAM run and it seems to do it over western Mass. The band shoots out ahead of the system and then slows and sort of almost pivots but then picks up steam moving East again. Then almost does it again over Eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Normally NAM is too far west in the end and the EURO dumps on me so I am satisfied with 20" the EURO shows. NAM is definitely stronger than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That's why western guys especially in orographically to inflow prone areas jumped too early. ORH hills to TOL to mpm will jack with a secondary jack over interior SE MA and most of NE MA. Going Climo is always a safe bet. Red-flag I'm noticing as 11th hour approaches is the diverge between NAM (usually higher QPF) is much lower than the GFS. Still much to be resolved IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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