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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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12 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

That makes 0 sense.  Soundings ppl!

The WxBell one matches almost perfectly with the Euro's QPF output, so I'm assuming the EuroWx one's algorithm is factoring in the surface temps more.  The 850s at hr 72 (where the vast majority of the precip falls) are well below 0 for the entire area.  2m temps are 0C right along I-95.  So it seems WxBell's algorithm thinks the rates will overcome... which seems plausible given the high rates (.1"/hr along and SE of I-95) and very close to 0C temps (BWI is at 31, DCA is at 32, IAD is at 32, Andrews is at 33 and 34's don't show up west of the bay).

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19 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

BIG discrepancy in snowfall amounts between various euro models that you can look at. WXBELL v EUROWX - huge implications for DCA BAL

C4AOaw4WEAE6aYm.jpg:large

Is there any chance that DT has the wrong map from EUROWX?  That's a huge difference!  Sleet??

just a matter of when the model decides to call something snow vs a mix or rain. 

wxbell could say its snowing at 35, while eurowx could say at 32 

neither maps should be used as a forecasting tool. going to come down to how the column works out when precip arrives. 

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1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

The WxBell one matches almost perfectly with the Euro's QPF output, so I'm assuming the EuroWx one's algorithm is factoring in the surface temps more.  The 850s at hr 72 (where the vast majority of the precip falls) are well below 0 for the entire area.  2m temps are 0C right along I-95.  So it seems WxBell's algorithm thinks the rates will overcome... which seems plausible given the high rates (.1"/hr along and SE of I-95) and very close to 0C temps (BWI is at 31, DCA is at 32, IAD is at 32, Andrews is at 33 and 34's don't show up west of the bay).

Thank you, I agree assuming your explanations!

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BTW, Windyty.com has fantastic free Euro data. It's surprising cold at 950 HPA, so verbatim would be a pretty fast changeover, and I would think could be colder at the surface if good rates were to develop. https://www.windytv.com/overlays?950h,temp,2017-02-09-09,38.989,-75.773,8 (I know, I'm crazy to be tracking meh storm that won't even effect me, but weather gets boring around here.)

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4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

BTW, Windyty.com has fantastic free Euro data. It's surprising cold at 950 HPA, so verbatim would be a pretty fast changeover, and I would think could be colder at the surface if good rates were to develop. https://www.windytv.com/overlays?950h,temp,2017-02-09-09,38.989,-75.773,8 (I know, I'm crazy to be tracking meh storm that won't even effect me, but weather gets boring around here.)

Excellent!  Check out the "next 6 days snowfall" map! ~10cm :)

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LWX:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
244 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017
 

Quote

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...Another
round of showers is expected Tue night as cdfnt approaches the
area. Cdfnt crosses the area around 12Z Wed, although there are
timing differences amongst models on how fast cdfnt clears the
area and how far south it gets. There is now growing support for
a secondary low to form along stalled out front Wed night with mdt
precip moving in again into the area Wed night. Numerical guidance
are showing different track solutions with this low with the 12Z
GFS the farthest north, the 12Z ECMWF the farthest south and the
GFES mean in between the Euro and GFS. What does appear likely is
that we'll see a period of rain Wed evening changing to snow
before precip ends Thu morning, but exact snow accumulations are
still highly uncertain given different track solutions and very
warm antecedent conditions.

 

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Without getting too granular with soundings, the 925 and 850 mb temps are colder by a couple degrees compared to 0z for the period of interest. Good trend. The surface seems to be the bigger problem and so it will likely come down to getting decent precip rates, assuming the timing of the arrival of cold aloft is close to correct.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Without getting too granular with soundings, the 925 and 850 mb temps are colder by a couple degrees compared to 0z for the period of interest. Good trend. The surface seems to be the bigger problem and so it will likely come down to getting decent precip rates, assuming the timing of the arrival of cold aloft is close to correct.

Don't forget the LED street lamps that have been recently installed could be bad for nighttime accumulations too. :yikes:

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Without getting too granular with soundings, the 925 and 850 mb temps are colder by a couple degrees compared to 0z for the period of interest. Good trend. The surface seems to be the bigger problem and so it will likely come down to getting decent precip rates, assuming the timing of the arrival of cold aloft is close to correct.

Just saw that myself. I also love the 700 VV panels on the Euro for HR's 66 and 72. Just looking at the trajectory of the greatest VV's, that would smack NVA and MD square on its progression to the NE. I also checked the soundings for areas just to the NW of DC and the biggest takeaway was that surface temp and the colder look between 800-600mb. Not a bad sounding at all for that run. I really wish I could have Euro Bufkit. That would be sick. 

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4 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Pity it doesn't go out to ten days... has anyone seen any p-type maps for hr 240?

Way too warm out this way. Cutter to the west. Looks great for Erie, PA.

 

Edit: Fail on my part. Runs across us the last 2 frames before it truly cuts. That's what I get for looking at a map with no MSLP plot. 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS looks good, fwiw(getting a bit close in for low res ensembles). Snow mean looks about the same as 0z.

Clicking through the member panels shows an equal split between the misses NW or SE. If I had to pick a bias I would say SE so unless the GFS/GEFS is about to score a coup, I think the GFS/GEFS is too far NW. We'll know more in 90 mins. lol

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Clicking through the member panels shows an equal split between the misses NW or SE. If I had to pick a bias I would say SE so unless the GFS/GEFS is about to score a coup, I think the GFS/GEFS is too far NW. We'll know more in 90 mins. lol

Yeah looks like a bit of a war between the GFS and Euro ops. They each have good support. Something has to give. My wag is this ends up a decent event for fall line and NW. The end result will come down to timing and rates, like it so often does around here.

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18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just saw that myself. I also love the 700 VV panels on the Euro for HR's 66 and 72. Just looking at the trajectory of the greatest VV's, that would smack NVA and MD square on its progression to the NE. I also checked the soundings for areas just to the NW of DC and the biggest takeaway was that surface temp and the colder look between 800-600mb. Not a bad sounding at all for that run. I really wish I could have Euro Bufkit. That would be sick. 

got any specifics up my way? i look to be cold enough the whole time, maybe a tad above 32 at onset. 

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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just saw that myself. I also love the 700 VV panels on the Euro for HR's 66 and 72. Just looking at the trajectory of the greatest VV's, that would smack NVA and MD square on its progression to the NE. I also checked the soundings for areas just to the NW of DC and the biggest takeaway was that surface temp and the colder look between 800-600mb. Not a bad sounding at all for that run. I really wish I could have Euro Bufkit. That would be sick. 

If you have Accuweather Pro you can also look at cross sections too with the Euro and most of the other models. I did a cross section on a line from the PA/MD border down into a bit of northern VA along I-95 putting DC roughly in the middle. Hour 66 (prior to most precip arriving in the region) obviously a bit too warm under 900mb for about 2/3s of that cross section, but within + or - 1 degree of 0 between 800-900mb on about all of the cross section. Hour 72 def looked good all around. Certainly would be a quick hitter.. pretty much all between 66 and 72hours. Temps below 925mb are going to be the initial issue. Heavy precip should get things changed over in relatively short order if Euro has it's way with the 0.5-0.75" frame centered over DC and surrounding areas at hour 72. 

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