Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Key will be getting the cold air in quick and kicking out and warm nose. We've seen it break our way in '14 / '15. Hopefully we get a decent redemption of 6"+ paste Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: DTVaWeatherman @DTVaWeatherman 1m1 minute ago More BIG discrepancy in snowfall amounts between various euro models that you can look at. WXBELL v EUROWX - huge implications for DCA BAL That makes 0 sense. Soundings ppl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I am not sure if we can still use them, but hopefully the EPS look like teh OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, BTRWx said: That makes 0 sense. Soundings ppl! The WxBell one matches almost perfectly with the Euro's QPF output, so I'm assuming the EuroWx one's algorithm is factoring in the surface temps more. The 850s at hr 72 (where the vast majority of the precip falls) are well below 0 for the entire area. 2m temps are 0C right along I-95. So it seems WxBell's algorithm thinks the rates will overcome... which seems plausible given the high rates (.1"/hr along and SE of I-95) and very close to 0C temps (BWI is at 31, DCA is at 32, IAD is at 32, Andrews is at 33 and 34's don't show up west of the bay). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, packfan98 said: DTVaWeatherman @DTVaWeatherman 1m1 minute ago More BIG discrepancy in snowfall amounts between various euro models that you can look at. WXBELL v EUROWX - huge implications for DCA BAL Is there any chance that DT has the wrong map from EUROWX? That's a huge difference! Sleet?? just a matter of when the model decides to call something snow vs a mix or rain. wxbell could say its snowing at 35, while eurowx could say at 32 neither maps should be used as a forecasting tool. going to come down to how the column works out when precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: The WxBell one matches almost perfectly with the Euro's QPF output, so I'm assuming the EuroWx one's algorithm is factoring in the surface temps more. The 850s at hr 72 (where the vast majority of the precip falls) are well below 0 for the entire area. 2m temps are 0C right along I-95. So it seems WxBell's algorithm thinks the rates will overcome... which seems plausible given the high rates (.1"/hr along and SE of I-95) and very close to 0C temps (BWI is at 31, DCA is at 32, IAD is at 32, Andrews is at 33 and 34's don't show up west of the bay). Thank you, I agree assuming your explanations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Does any site provide Euro soundings? The one huge thing that is missing from WxBell is soundings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, caviman2201 said: Does any site provide Euro soundings? The one huge thing that is missing from WxBell is soundings... I believe accuweather does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I believe accuweather does. Yup! I just looked however and the newest run of Euro wasn't out just yet. Was going to look as soon as it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Did anyone else get the impression that DT's eurowx map may have been from a parallel run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 BTW, Windyty.com has fantastic free Euro data. It's surprising cold at 950 HPA, so verbatim would be a pretty fast changeover, and I would think could be colder at the surface if good rates were to develop. https://www.windytv.com/overlays?950h,temp,2017-02-09-09,38.989,-75.773,8 (I know, I'm crazy to be tracking meh storm that won't even effect me, but weather gets boring around here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yup! I just looked however and the newest run of Euro wasn't out just yet. Was going to look as soon as it comes out. great, thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: BTW, Windyty.com has fantastic free Euro data. It's surprising cold at 950 HPA, so verbatim would be a pretty fast changeover, and I would think could be colder at the surface if good rates were to develop. https://www.windytv.com/overlays?950h,temp,2017-02-09-09,38.989,-75.773,8 (I know, I'm crazy to be tracking meh storm that won't even effect me, but weather gets boring around here.) Excellent! Check out the "next 6 days snowfall" map! ~10cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 LWX: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Quote SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...Another round of showers is expected Tue night as cdfnt approaches the area. Cdfnt crosses the area around 12Z Wed, although there are timing differences amongst models on how fast cdfnt clears the area and how far south it gets. There is now growing support for a secondary low to form along stalled out front Wed night with mdt precip moving in again into the area Wed night. Numerical guidance are showing different track solutions with this low with the 12Z GFS the farthest north, the 12Z ECMWF the farthest south and the GFES mean in between the Euro and GFS. What does appear likely is that we'll see a period of rain Wed evening changing to snow before precip ends Thu morning, but exact snow accumulations are still highly uncertain given different track solutions and very warm antecedent conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Without getting too granular with soundings, the 925 and 850 mb temps are colder by a couple degrees compared to 0z for the period of interest. Good trend. The surface seems to be the bigger problem and so it will likely come down to getting decent precip rates, assuming the timing of the arrival of cold aloft is close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Without getting too granular with soundings, the 925 and 850 mb temps are colder by a couple degrees compared to 0z for the period of interest. Good trend. The surface seems to be the bigger problem and so it will likely come down to getting decent precip rates, assuming the timing of the arrival of cold aloft is close to correct. Don't forget the LED street lamps that have been recently installed could be bad for nighttime accumulations too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Excellent! Check out the "next 6 days snowfall" map! ~10cm Pity it doesn't go out to ten days... has anyone seen any p-type maps for hr 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Without getting too granular with soundings, the 925 and 850 mb temps are colder by a couple degrees compared to 0z for the period of interest. Good trend. The surface seems to be the bigger problem and so it will likely come down to getting decent precip rates, assuming the timing of the arrival of cold aloft is close to correct. Just saw that myself. I also love the 700 VV panels on the Euro for HR's 66 and 72. Just looking at the trajectory of the greatest VV's, that would smack NVA and MD square on its progression to the NE. I also checked the soundings for areas just to the NW of DC and the biggest takeaway was that surface temp and the colder look between 800-600mb. Not a bad sounding at all for that run. I really wish I could have Euro Bufkit. That would be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Pity it doesn't go out to ten days... has anyone seen any p-type maps for hr 240? Rain would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Pity it doesn't go out to ten days... has anyone seen any p-type maps for hr 240? Way too warm out this way. Cutter to the west. Looks great for Erie, PA. Edit: Fail on my part. Runs across us the last 2 frames before it truly cuts. That's what I get for looking at a map with no MSLP plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 EPS mostly agrees with the op as it should at 72-84 hours. Control is carbon copy of the op which is a good sign. Nice 12z euro suite for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 EPS looks good, fwiw(getting a bit close in for low res ensembles). Snow mean looks about the same as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS looks good, fwiw(getting a bit close in for low res ensembles). Snow mean looks about the same as 0z. Clicking through the member panels shows an equal split between the misses NW or SE. If I had to pick a bias I would say SE so unless the GFS/GEFS is about to score a coup, I think the GFS/GEFS is too far NW. We'll know more in 90 mins. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Clicking through the member panels shows an equal split between the misses NW or SE. If I had to pick a bias I would say SE so unless the GFS/GEFS is about to score a coup, I think the GFS/GEFS is too far NW. We'll know more in 90 mins. lol Yeah looks like a bit of a war between the GFS and Euro ops. They each have good support. Something has to give. My wag is this ends up a decent event for fall line and NW. The end result will come down to timing and rates, like it so often does around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Just saw that myself. I also love the 700 VV panels on the Euro for HR's 66 and 72. Just looking at the trajectory of the greatest VV's, that would smack NVA and MD square on its progression to the NE. I also checked the soundings for areas just to the NW of DC and the biggest takeaway was that surface temp and the colder look between 800-600mb. Not a bad sounding at all for that run. I really wish I could have Euro Bufkit. That would be sick. got any specifics up my way? i look to be cold enough the whole time, maybe a tad above 32 at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Just saw that myself. I also love the 700 VV panels on the Euro for HR's 66 and 72. Just looking at the trajectory of the greatest VV's, that would smack NVA and MD square on its progression to the NE. I also checked the soundings for areas just to the NW of DC and the biggest takeaway was that surface temp and the colder look between 800-600mb. Not a bad sounding at all for that run. I really wish I could have Euro Bufkit. That would be sick. If you have Accuweather Pro you can also look at cross sections too with the Euro and most of the other models. I did a cross section on a line from the PA/MD border down into a bit of northern VA along I-95 putting DC roughly in the middle. Hour 66 (prior to most precip arriving in the region) obviously a bit too warm under 900mb for about 2/3s of that cross section, but within + or - 1 degree of 0 between 800-900mb on about all of the cross section. Hour 72 def looked good all around. Certainly would be a quick hitter.. pretty much all between 66 and 72hours. Temps below 925mb are going to be the initial issue. Heavy precip should get things changed over in relatively short order if Euro has it's way with the 0.5-0.75" frame centered over DC and surrounding areas at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 EURO: Certainly a shallow cold layer. Even with surface temperatures near 40 at 00 UT at DCA when the precip begins, the 1000-500 hPa thickness is 540, and the 850 temperature just below freezing. Looks like we won't touch 70 until at least Sunday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 What is HM talking about....? "Our new Rapid Update of the ECMWF model shows the snow is backing way off for the Mid-Atlantic Thursday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: What is HM talking about....? "Our new Rapid Update of the ECMWF model shows the snow is backing way off for the Mid-Atlantic Thursday." AccuGuess HM is not the person i'd follow for accurate weather updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: What is HM talking about....? "Our new Rapid Update of the ECMWF model shows the snow is backing way off for the Mid-Atlantic Thursday." Probably he means NYC part of mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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