CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I haven't been paying as much attention lately but damn that is a pretty sweet h5 look mid month on the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are the best overall pattern we've seen since 09-10 and it begins early week 3. I'll let psu do the detailed analysis but it's cold, blocky (ao and nao), and southern jet undercutting it all. If things broke right inside of the mean height pattern we could pull off a Brady before it's all said and done. I am behind due to work so just looked at it this morning. Nothing to complain about here especially given what we thought we might be heading into just a week ago. Things could indeed get active and interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 We suddenly have a lot to look at. Nice change. This didn't come out of nowhere, rather its been hinted at as the way this pattern might progress for a while now, and it simply is coming into range, combined with the guidance trending better and faster as it gets closer and they "see" the effects of the MJO and strat warm probably, so it seems like a sudden flip. I thought it was actually headed this way a week ago then the MJO surge into warm phases pushed it back, but as soon as the MJO goes into favorable phases the pattern progression resumes with vengeance. The "torch" we were looking at has now morphed into a couple days of slightly above normal temps between threat windows. The 6z GEFS never breaks down the trough in the east actually and we just run the table day 7 on. I thought that was a possibility with the MJO once the time period got into range. Same reason we usually see things go to crap when the long range looks good but the large scale indices say it shouldn't. Last nights weeklies were the king weenie of weenie runs. Develops our classic h5 look of blocking over the top with lower heights centered to our south and northeast and keeps reloading it over and over through March. There are two legit looking windows of opportunity right now and they both look about as good as anything we have had in a long time. The first is day 8-10. For reference I am posting the classic big storm analog mean below again so we can compare. Then below that is the current EPS mean for the period. Its pretty close. The one problem, and it showed up on the 6z GFS op, is there is a bit too much energy diving in on the northern branch behind the 50/50 features and ahead of the STJ energy. That could much things up. We would do better without that. We either want the STJ to eject quicker and be out in front then phase and come up or for that northern energy to get out of the way or not be there completely and the STJ could get it done by itself. Those kinds of details are not going to be worked out this far out. The next window is day 15. Yea its way out but it looks legit. Last night EPS moved towards this and the 6z GFS is about as close to "that" look as you will see 15 days out. Keep in mind how muted and washed out a mean usually looks at day 15. This is a remarkably strong signal for that range. Again compare the look to the analog posted above. Pretty close. Best part is the euro weeklies reload this look over and over for a month. It is just coming into range, so I want to see this hold for the next few runs to really get excited, but I have been talking about this kind of pattern progression for a while because it has been the way things have been headed for a while and hinted at on guidance. Does this mean were getting snow blitzed...no, but it means the game isn't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Wow...yeah those ensemble progs are ripe. I'm still in a wait and see mode for now though given we've been teased before this winter. Get a ensemble mean like that into a day 5-6 range and we should be seeing some storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Wow...yeah those ensemble progs are ripe. I'm still in a wait and see mode for now though given we've been teased before this winter. Get a ensemble mean like that into a day 5-6 range and we should be seeing some storm chances.since we are in a -ao pattern perhaps we will see more stability in the long range guidance. This is the first time all winter we have had a -ao so perhaps we wont be as likely to have the football pulled away as we were earlier in the season. I understand the models are more reliable in blocking patterns. we will see.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I honestly like day 9 look of the euro. Some legit hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I honestly like day 9 look of the euro. Some legit hope. I'm with you. Have been for days. Let's see how it plays out though. Been to many false flag events this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The bowling ball in the SW is a lock in the midrange. It's going to go "somewhere" in the d8-11 period. It's tricky with the northern stream diving down with strong NW upper level flow. We need the bowling ball energy to phase with something in the NS. That kind of timing is beyond unknown at this point. EPS show the idea but support is like 25% or so. As the time gap closes hopefully things break right. That's the only chance at a good event imho. Otherwise, a moisture starved NS vort is the only other option for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The bowling ball in the SW is a lock in the midrange. It's going to go "somewhere" in the d8-11 period. It's tricky with the northern stream diving down with strong NW upper level flow. We need the bowling ball energy to phase with something in the NS. That kind of timing is beyond unknown at this point. EPS show the idea but support is like 25% or so. As the time gap closes hopefully things break right. That's the only chance at a good event imho. Otherwise, a moisture starved NS vort is the only other option for snowfall. Bob, I was just looking at that. I tried to trace it far as far back as I could to see if it made sense/was legit. It shows up in the non-fantasy realm, so I think I kinda believe this threat more than normal. Although I'm still going to mock us all for saying..."it's really coming this time!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Bob, I was just looking at that. I tried to trace it far as far back as I could to see if it made sense/was legit. It shows up in the non-fantasy realm, so I think I kinda believe this threat more than normal. Although I'm still going to mock us all for saying..."it's really coming this time!". Well, it's definitely crossing the country. But man is it muddy right now on how it does it. GFS has shown the phase solution but that doesn't mean much. Last night euro leaves it detached from strong steering flow and it just meanders and weakens across the deep south. But who know. NS vorts zipping along are a blur on guidance. Just gotta watch the ensembles and see if they start picking up on the idea of it getting sucked into the flow and absorbed. It has as much potential to become part of a fairly sig storm in the east as it does just being a lonely little piece of sheared out crap that dissolves on itself. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I honestly like day 9 look of the euro. Some legit hope. welcome aboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The Day 9 pattern looks decent, but on the 6Z GEFS the pattern really gets ripe at about 336 hours when the stars align and there is a strong signal for a 50/50 low and low heights in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Well, it's definitely crossing the country. But man is it muddy right now on how it does it. GFS has shown the phase solution but that doesn't mean much. Last night euro leaves it detached from strong steering flow and it just meanders and weakens across the deep south. But who know. NS vorts zipping along are a blur on guidance. Just gotta watch the ensembles and see if they start picking up on the idea of it getting sucked into the flow and absorbed. It has as much potential to become part of a fairly sig storm in the east as it does just being a lonely little piece of sheared out crap that dissolves on itself. lol The last couple of days have been interesting in the longer range as you see the different possibilities. Have to like our chances. But how many times have we said that this year and yet I am still sitting at 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Some other long range information - wish it came at the start of winter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: welcome aboard... Maybe it's just me, but I hate waiting on a boat never sets sail. At least this time, I see smoke coming from the stacks! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Maybe it's just me, but I hate waiting on a boat never sets sail. At least this time, I see smoke coming from the stacks! lol LOL, GFS bowling ball dug completely into MEX now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: LOL, GFS bowling ball dug completely into MEX now. Yeah, it's going to break right through that wall, LOL!! But seriously, I saw that. Not sure the result will be good here though it is out at ~200 hours and is a deterministic solution, so whatever. Does it shear out to the east or over-amplify and warm up too much here? At least that strong blocking is still showing up. ETA: Not sure we'd much care for that bit of a low over MI, but again, this is out there in time so grain of salt and all that. ETA2: Ha! Well look at that...not a bad showing in the end I suppose. 986 low off the NC/VA coast moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: LOL, GFS bowling ball dug completely into MEX now. It's coming. Not supposed to be hear until day 9. Exactly where it comes to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Well GFS has it still, so I guess that counts for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Well GFS has it still, so I guess that counts for something. d@mn right it does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Consistency at Day 9... Nice to see I guess. Little more delayed then last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Northern stream kicks it out, but not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Northern stream kicks it out, but not bad Right now, that's the equivalent of a blizzard and 50" of snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Right now, that's the equivalent of a blizzard and 50" of snow for us. yep....we suck at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Kinda better than 06Z, but not quite as good as 00Z, or something like that. At this point, the key is that there's something there that has been showing up now...and the overall 500 mb pattern would support something like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Kinda better than 06Z, but not quite as good as 00Z, or something like that. At this point, the key is that there's something there that has been showing up now...and the overall 500 mb pattern would support something like it. Yeah, it's going to wobble around here and there...important thing is, it's still on the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Maybe the euro will throw a bone on the day 9 thing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Maybe the euro will throw a bone on the day 9 thing. Nut gunna be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: gunna be close Real close...So, hypothetically, what would need here? A little more blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Real close...So, hypothetically, what would need here? A little more blocking? You need a phase with the northern stream. The euro is close but doesn't do it. Without a phase the southern energy is going to just meander along and probably just get booted out to sea. Even if it approaches without a phase it would just sorta "bump into" any high pressure to the north. Could it snow like that? Sure. But to get a good storm you need a vort diving down from Canada to suck in the southern energy and go boom. That type of solution is very much on the table but even if ops showed it for 4 runs in a row right now it could easily just go poof in an instant. We'll just have to watch and wait for the next 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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