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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

You need a phase with the northern stream. The euro is close but doesn't do it. Without a phase the southern energy is going to just meander along and probably just get booted out to sea. Even if it approaches without a phase it would just sorta "bump into" any high pressure to the north. Could it snow like that? Sure. But to get a good storm you need a vort diving down from Canada to suck in the southern energy and go boom. That type of solution is very much on the table but even if ops showed it for 4 runs in a row right now it could easily just go poof in an instant. We'll just have to watch and wait for the next 4-5 days. 

So, the EURO comes close to doing that...and the GFS solution does?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah, I see. So what you need is one of the two to slow down in order for them to phase?

I'm definitely not the guy to be answering too many questions - I'm probably the least educated dude in the forum when it comes to this stuff :), but yeah I think you'd need the northern stream to dig further south and merge with that southern stream energy so to the storm doesn't get shunted off to the east.  That would allow it to slow down and come up the coast while dragging cold air down into the system.  The 500mb maps would likely illustrate this more clearly.  One of the smart guys please correct me if I'm wrong on any of this!

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23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah, I see. So what you need is one of the two to slow down in order for them to phase?

The best panels to use for judging how close to a phase are actually the vort panels and not the height panels. It's much easier visually (I'm a very visual person when it comes to this stuff). It's why I tend to ignore numerical indices but that's another discussion. 

Look at this hr222 vort panel on the gfs. See the nice orange swirlies (this is a very technical met term) between the 2 streams? They aren't touching and there's a pretty big gap between them.

gfs_z500_vort_us_38.png

 

If you click the next couple panels you can see they just miss each other overhead and then a partial phase well off the coast. Imagine if the nice swirlie in the northern stream energy was digging down just a little bit more towards the TN valley. The 2 swirlies would get married and have a big giant orange swirlie ball baby right over our heads. Another very technical met term we use are around here would describe the outcome:  BOOM

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The best panels to use for judging how close to a phase is actually the vort panels and not the height panels. It's much easier visually (I'm a very visual person when it comes to this stuff). It's why I tend to ignore numerical indices but that's another discussion. 

Look at this hr222 vort panel on the gfs. See the nice orange swirlies (this is a very technical met term) between the 2 streams? They aren't touching and there's a pretty big gap between them.

gfs_z500_vort_us_38.png

 

If you click the next couple panels you can see they just miss each other with a partial phase well off the coast. Imagine if the nice swirlie in the northern stream energy was digging down just a little bit more. They would get married and have a big giant orange swirlie ball baby right over our heads. Another very technical met term we use are around here would describe the outcome:  BOOM

 

Haha awesome description!  Glad I wasn't too far off.

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS went from 25% agreement that the SW bowling ball effects us to 50%. About 10 significant hits in the mix. Nice trend. I'm rooting for an orange swirlie ball baby. I think I just like saying that. It's catchy. I officially declare it the swirlie ball baby storm. 

*taking studious notes*

So, orange swirly babies...got it! :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS went from 25% agreement that the SW bowling ball effects us to 50%. About 10 significant hits in the mix. Nice trend. I'm rooting for an orange swirlie ball baby. I think I just like saying that. It's catchy. I officially declare it the swirlie ball baby storm. 

Definitely a strong signal for that threat. Then another modest spike in snow starts day 15 and that's supported by a good h5 look setting in there too. We have some chances coming up. 

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The best panels to use for judging how close to a phase are actually the vort panels and not the height panels. It's much easier visually (I'm a very visual person when it comes to this stuff). It's why I tend to ignore numerical indices but that's another discussion. 

Look at this hr222 vort panel on the gfs. See the nice orange swirlies (this is a very technical met term) between the 2 streams? They aren't touching and there's a pretty big gap between them.

gfs_z500_vort_us_38.png

 

If you click the next couple panels you can see they just miss each other overhead and then a partial phase well off the coast. Imagine if the nice swirlie in the northern stream energy was digging down just a little bit more towards the TN valley. The 2 swirlies would get married and have a big giant orange swirlie ball baby right over our heads. Another very technical met term we use are around here would describe the outcome:  BOOM

You have a way w/ words. 

You feeling better about where we're headed?  MJO/NAO to the rescue?

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16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sweey mercy! If this stays on the radar a few more days...I'm gonna nickname this the almanac storm! Both Farmer's (to the exact date) and Old Farmer's have a storm in this exact date range, lol

@Bob Chill Btw...I beat ya to it in naming this storm--I dub it...the Almanac storm! (Because both Almanacs call for a snowstorm in this exact date range, lol)

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Definitely a strong signal for that threat. Then another modest spike in snow starts day 15 and that's supported by a good h5 look setting in there too. We have some chances coming up. 

We just need to get a surface high further east and it's a great setup.  Otherwise, we're probably looking at another anafront kind of deal. 

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31 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You have a way w/ words. 

You feeling better about where we're headed?  MJO/NAO to the rescue?

I'm not bored at least. The clock is ticking but considering it starts getting harder to snow late in our climo period, then blocking showing up in the LR is becoming a requirement to get anything to happen. 

I'll just take it as it comes. The closed low ejecting from the SW has my interest. It's a way to get a bigger storm. By the time that is resolved (for better or worse) hopefully we have something on the heels to watch. 

I'd be lying if I said I didn't like today though. It was really nice outside. I can get used to that pretty quick. lol

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS went from 25% agreement that the SW bowling ball effects us to 50%. About 10 significant hits in the mix. Nice trend. I'm rooting for an orange swirlie ball baby. I think I just like saying that. It's catchy. I officially declare it the swirlie ball baby storm. 

Those upper level lows coming out of the southwest are the old "money in the bank" storms as coined by JB. I might have to pony up for Wxbell after all.  Of course,  every time I've said that this year the models killed the great look. But I have to admit that I'm finally getting a feeling that things have taken a turn for the better. Just a little uncertain whether it's too little, too late for us. 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Those upper level lows coming out of the southwest are the old "money in the bank" storms as coined by JB. I might have to pony up for Wxbell after all.  Of course,  every time I've said that this year the models killed the great look. But I have to admit that I'm finally getting a feeling that things have taken a turn for the better. Just a little uncertain whether it's too little, too late for us. 

It's our first real chance at a big storm this year. Ops are going to tease the F out of us the next 5 days. I guaranty we get the phased monster solution sometime in the next 5 days. Probably sooner. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's our first real chance at a big storm this year. Ops are going to tease the F out of us the next 5 days. I guaranty we get the phased monster solution sometime in the next 5 days. Probably sooner. 

Can you imagine if we had a full phase...we need a nice nrn stream vort to show up and dig

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't even have to read usernames anymore. Whenever I see the almanac mentioned I know it's you. 

Ah, I remember you! Yeah, that's me...lol Given the total lack of snow so far, hard not to hope it's right (especially since they both have it!) I say we give em' their props when they are correct!!! (And they have nailed a few events nationwide this year. I just find it fascinating when they pin something down to a 5-6 day window months in advance. What formula are they using? Lol) We got a long way to go...it's just funny this happened to pop up at this range, lol

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's our first real chance at a big storm this year. Ops are going to tease the F out of us the next 5 days. I guaranty we get the phased monster solution sometime in the next 5 days. Probably sooner. 

dammit, now I'm going to be checking every single run like a full blown autist.  Both the GFS and euro this afternoon have a strong southern stream low over the gulf states somewhere around next wednesday.

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28 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

dammit, now I'm going to be checking every single run like a full blown autist.  Both the GFS and euro this afternoon have a strong southern stream low over the gulf states somewhere around next wednesday.

Nah, no need for that until we get inside of 5 days. Some runs may be perty as hell but they won't mean much. Neither will the heart breakers. 

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