Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Solid observation of a subtle modeling trend ... I noticed that the low in general has a peaked structural look really early. Like, the 500mb maxes out way SW and the whole trough is filling by the time it pass us.. That's true - All of these may be physically connected to the weakened baroclinicity over the east. This system is has very little low level thickness gradients and as we know that will effect deepening rates for a myriad of feed-back causes. That can be overcome though ... the key difference between the "epicosity" of the earlier runs and these recent trends may come down to correctly sampling that straight zonal impactor that slams into the southern California coast in 36 hours... It may be wishy washy, but I wouldn't be shocked if that thing's strength is missing some as it slices/punches really ...east through the deep south. It could mean a stronger resulting mid level closure like earlier runs and ... then it's a its a different ball game. interesting. I thought this peaked in the Delmarava since the get go but 95% of us will trade winter for some gusty winds anyday. We can save wind storms for the spring. not being without power and having surge damage is just fine and dandy, besides tides are meh and the fetch is only 18 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We get it, you want to retreat the ridge west, Tip will chime in with 5 paragraphs about teleconnections setting up destructive interference and Ryan will see nothing in the next 3 weeks to get excited about. Ray will turn to spring training Kevin orders his lawn fertilizer and Ocean State Wx will fire up the golf thread. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 this could turn out to be a fast moving midland intensity nor-easter... One that more like 'heralds' in the best pattern this winter will offer - I still think there is an additional signal around the 28th and ...there's even one materializing way out there... (almost by inference alone). How about the monster -EPO dome on the extended operational GFS - EE gads.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I had a question about the light precipitation for Friday night. I wanted to ski at Mount Snow on Saturday. Would this be light snow up there or freezing drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Solid observation of a subtle modeling trend ... I noticed that the low in general has a peaked structural look really early. Like, the 500mb maxes out way SW and the whole trough is filling by the time it pass us.. That's true - All of these may be physically connected to the weakened baroclinicity over the east. This system is has very little low level thickness gradients and as we know that will effect deepening rates for a myriad of feed-back causes. That can be overcome though ... the key difference between the "epicosity" of the earlier runs and these recent trends may come down to correctly sampling that straight zonal impactor that slams into the southern California coast in 36 hours... It may be wishy washy, but I wouldn't be shocked if that thing's strength is missing some as it slices/punches really ...east through the deep south. It could mean a stronger resulting mid level closure like earlier runs and ... then it's a its a different ball game. interesting. It's always looked skunked to me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Yeah, i wrote about this early... but this 12z GFS has bitten much more obviously on the 'squirt out' S/W parcel and the ignition of a weak coastal down the way, much more the previous runs. It actually looks a lot more like the GGEM run from two nights ago... Anyway, that helps pull the colder air down south; you can see it on surface PP as the nose of damming descends a bit more in latitude as that lead wave shoots seaward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Possible...but my gut is that if this ends up snowy, it's not gonna be a complete paste job. Maybe for some areas near the transition it could be, but that high sort of screams for take the under on the boundary layer temps...and also maybe more of a sleet zone versus pasty snow and rain. This has a March 2001 air about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I had a question about the light precipitation for Friday night. I wanted to ski at Mount Snow on Saturday. Would this be light snow up there or freezing drizzle? that's a good question ... sometimes in a saturated air mass close to ground you get freezing mist more so than grains/flakes.. I think you need the temperature to be colder than 27 to 32 ... but don't quote me. It seems anecdotally ...when there's like a fog sweat layer at 29 it can be freezing drizzle because it's not quite cold enough to offset the latent heat of phase changes so the the condensates stay liquid. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This has a March 2001 air about it... We do not ever talk about that storm. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: that's a good question ... sometimes in a saturated air mass close to ground you get freezing mist more so than grains/flakes.. I think you need the temperature to be colder than 27 to 32 ... but don't quote me. It seems anecdotally ...when there's like a fog sweat layer at 29 it can be freezing drizzle because it's not quite cold enough to offset the latent heat of phase changes so the the condensates stay liquid. interesting... Burlington NWS has light snow for their zone just north of Mt Snow, while Albany NWS has freezing rain. Hopefully it's too light to affect the skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This has a March 2001 air about it... 2/13 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Well the forecast soundings for PWM cut the warm nose in half (+3.5C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, Zeus said: We do not ever talk about that storm. Ever. When Zeus scorns, I listen- I'll be good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Well the forecast soundings for PWM cut the warm nose in half (+3.5C). Keep bringing 'em down with that closed mid-level anticyclone parked north of CAR. Well assuming that look holds of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2/13 2014? Refresh my memory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Refresh my memory... That might be the one that dropped a pretty uniform 20 spot across the interior . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Ukie rains to Maine. How is that track possible with the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Refresh my memory... 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That might be the one that dropped a pretty uniform 20 spot across the interior . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ukie rains to Maine. How is that track possible with the block? It's the Ukie past 72 hours...it loves to go stemwinder in the long range. We'll see what the Euro says shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He had uniform right................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's the Ukie past 72 hours...it loves to go stemwinder in the long range. We'll see what the Euro says shortly. Hopefully it won't follow suit. Many times it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Maybe buds on some trees by the end of next week for some? Saw a moth 2 nights ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Maybe buds on some trees by the end of next week for some? Saw a moth 2 nights ago. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: He had uniform right................... Crazy storm with the kitchen sink including Tstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully it won't follow suit. Many times it does Debra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Debra He's trying hard not to get sucked into this threat yet...he doesn't want to go all-in with the emotional investment. I cannot say I blame him though. He's remaining disciplined for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Maybe buds on some trees by the end of next week for some? Saw a moth 2 nights ago. I've wondered in the past if it's more about length of time it's cold, more than how cold it gets ...with a lot of these insects. I've noticed that the first time it's 55 F with a dp surpassing 50 the door lamp outside my front door immediately has one or two in orbit around it. Could have been 10, three days earlier.. and I'm like, r u kidding! we haven't really sustained cold this year ...not even close. In 2009... the Forsythias were in bloom in early March... Maple buds cracked by early April...some three weeks earlier than normal for that species... we even had a run at 90 that April which pretty much sealed the deal as the earliest green-up I'd ever seen! In fact, I'd always over heard people talk about earlier or later this or that, and thought...nah, not really true. I remembered the year before and it was always right around the third week of April that green up really took off. Not that year. That was the first time that it was shockingly obvious. Interesting.. It was late in 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, 20" for Albany, that place is a snow lover's dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He's trying hard not to get sucked into this threat yet...he doesn't want to go all-in with the emotional investment. I cannot say I blame him though. He's remaining disciplined for now. That's the approach that I would take in his or even my area...I'm leaning rain with some mixing for most. But I will ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He's trying hard not to get sucked into this threat yet...he doesn't want to go all-in with the emotional investment. I cannot say I blame him though. He's remaining disciplined for now. He also stated this is a nickel and dime season. No biggies allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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