CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I mentioned this a few days back, we go back to I Niña base state. Tropical forcing goes near the Maritime continent to a bit further east. I am just concerned that our window of opportunity may be short again, but we shall see. No need to swallow an Uzi yet.just bringing it up in the spirit of a weatherboard. Not canceling anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Day 15 GEFS versus EPS, yea lets see what happens although GEFS is a snowier look Day 10 for the 00z GEFS and EPS are very similar. We will see what transpires after that. At least the cold will be there to tap so I agree that the look is far better than the **** we are in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned this a few days back, we go back to I Niña base state. Tropical forcing goes near the Maritime continent to a bit further east. I am just concerned that our window of opportunity may be short again, but we shall see. No need to swallow an Uzi yet.just bringing it up in the spirit of a weatherboard. Not canceling anything. I am concerned more about dryness, hopefully we can get a STJ impulse while we have cold source available. The pattern will probably relax and it will be at that time we should have a chance. Next weeks storm is a lost super chance. Way the cookie crumbles but would have been a contendah during our classic big storm week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 There's even a closed 850 mb HP north of Maine...lol. You rarely see that. Gosh, that high though...I can't help but think this is a big deal for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned this a few days back, we go back to I Niña base state. Tropical forcing goes near the Maritime continent to a bit further east. I am just concerned that our window of opportunity may be short again, but we shall see. No need to swallow an Uzi yet.just bringing it up in the spirit of a weatherboard. Not canceling anything. MJO phase spaces monitoring certainly would agree with this .. The PNA rise ..."seemed" to really preceded a sudden re-emergence/coherency of the MJO wave in Phase 1 --> Phase 2 per forecast. (Phase 1 + Phase 2) /2 ~= western ridge; eastern trough as the longer term correlation. What's interesting is that the longer lead index is forecast to slip out of coherence ever attempting to propagate beyond Phase 2 ... only to again re-emerge out there around week 2 on the cusp of Phase 6 and 7 ... Well, 7-8-1-2 all tend to correlate better with some form or another of the western ridge/eastern trough couplet. So, fwiw - it may add additional confidence of some sort of modal change in the handling of the Hemsiphere between the Marine sub-continent and the Americas and how that integrates with the westerlies. Word to the uneasy stability "appeal" of it... the WPO is going the wrong way -- I'm not sure that the whole of the thing is really sustainable with the Asia to NP handshake brokering diametrically opposed deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I really could do without all that ice, Don't need another 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Think we have to come to the realization that this winter is about small windows of opportunity. That seems to be the recurring theme. December went that way(pattern flip to cold-but only lasted about 10 days spanning the mid month period..then back to warmer). January was colder for the first week or so with a snow event-now has flipped to AN and losing most of the month. I was never buying anything Epic for Feb in my mind, so what Scott is saying makes sense as far as the tenor of the season seems to be setting up so far. There will be a window of opportunity for us, but I think that window will close sooner rather than later as it has both times this season. And if you're thinking something Epic...I think that is a recipe for disappointment in my opinion. Hope I'm completely wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I don't mean to increase toaster sales...I was only bringing up a concern. If we get blitzed even in a short window...nobody will care. It's better than this BS we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't mean to increase toaster sales...I was only bringing up a concern. If we get blitzed even in a short window...nobody will care. It's better than this BS we have now. Nope...point well taken for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There's even a closed 850 mb HP north of Maine...lol. You rarely see that. Gosh, that high though...I can't help but think this is a big deal for the interior. That would be such an odd set up for ice, with well developed lows south of New England. The forecast soundings totally support it across the interior up here, but it would definitely be an outlier upper air pattern I would think. Based on my study anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 They way i look at patterns, I consider them favorable or not favorable, Epic is term that gets used out of context i think as i have not found a pattern that was to that extent, I think you would have to have winter go wire to wire for that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That would be such an odd set up for ice, with well developed lows south of New England. The forecast soundings totally support it across the interior up here, but it would definitely be an outlier upper air pattern I would think. Based on my study anyway. I was thinking if the lower levels are modeled to warm too quickly (very likely) it may very well be a big scalpfest for a big area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nope...point well taken for sure. The other good thing is that is we due get srn stream action involved with antecedent cold...Feb is as good a month as any for that. 00z GFS sort of showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't mean to increase toaster sales...I was only bringing up a concern. If we get blitzed even in a short window...nobody will care. It's better than this BS we have now. I can name some that think Winter is supposed to be wall-to-wall cold and snow w/ snow cover the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't mean to increase toaster sales...I was only bringing up a concern. If we get blitzed even in a short window...nobody will care. It's better than this BS we have now. Nah, it's living in reality. I mean, I am slightly bummed because I have missed out on many big ones, last one was Oct 11 for me yet that winter was still awful. Ive been patient knowing that eventually "my time" will come. So it just sucks that most of west zone folk have waited for a slow moving hugger and its finally here but.....I knew this one was climbing an uphill battle with the lack of cold air, its like we have been chucking up air balls for several years and now we clank it off the rim. I guess that is progress though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, dryslot said: I really could do without all that ice, Don't need another 1998 I'd take it so you could get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'd take it so you could get snow You would until one of your oaks would make your sofa into a luv seat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 It's an immensely complicated pattern.. For one, it's a changing pattern (to what, and how ever long it lasts notwithstanding). The NAO is going to fall and go negative (most probably so..) and it WILL have an effect on the circulation and features in said circulation between 96 and 200 hours. Beyond that... it probably collapses... For one, what part of the NAO's recent decadal history lends us to believe the f'er ever is going to stay negative... However, the PNA (possibly rooted in what Scott and I were just hashing..) "should" demonstrate a bit more persistence ... So, where all this leads us is to a probable Archembault type precipitation event (again ..that doesn't say 'Archembault snowy precipitation event') coming up here near the apex of this recent PNA rise. The tandem fall in the NAO supplying cold air is both exquisitely fortunate for winter weather enthusiasts ...but also, magnitude dependent. It could supply blocking and force things S of us like the GGEM/Euro trend, and still only supply enough marginal cold for the elevations and NNE mountains and so forth. Or, it could work together with dynamics and be that all important 1 dec C colder enough to create a (tongue in cheek) entirely different sensible impact. Or in between... That's the general headache. The details are a whole 'nother nightmare. The wave dynamics that really govern whatever transpires are still over the Pacific. Details within those dynamics are also contributory to the complexion of the event... Take a look at the 06z (highly trustable..) NAM at 84 hours.. The example is actually mimicking the GGEM and Euro runs from yesterday; those models 'split' the S/W into two distinct maxims ... -- The GGEM puked out a strong enough lead wave to spin up just enough surface reflect to help pull more cold down into the interior coastal plain of the upper M/A and SNE regions. -- The Euro did not ... Although, it did still show that tendency to dumb-bell the dynamics into two centers of max. (the GFS operational runs have the spit out lead S/W fragment too ...but has been less pronounced) Either or both could be wrong for a cornucopia of reasons (duh) but, suppose for a moment the split/dumb-bell S/W has merit: For one, it would distract from the overall power of the main spin up. You could end up with that little wave like the GGEM and more code, but sacrifice for a slow moving midland coastal low (still meaningful for duration alone). Or, less lead wave like the Euro, but it still "robs" some dynamic power from the main coastal low due to less jet mechanics being less concertedly focused. Before even getting that far, I think this thing is about as good of a candidate for wanting ...if not needing physical soundings to sample that beast out there. It's coming in on a very unusual trajectory..lt impacts the west coast at or S of the latitude of Los Angeles ... careens through the SW to the Arklotex and then breaks as it slams into residual far west Atlantic SE ridging.. I know Scott and I were discussing the Nina -like appeal to the pattern changes...but that whole behavior is ironically Nino -like. The whole temporal evolution is unusual ... it comes into southern California and like 24 hours later the zygote low is already developing in the TV... It's unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't mean to increase toaster sales...I was only bringing up a concern. If we get blitzed even in a short window...nobody will care. It's better than this BS we have now. We get it, you want to retreat the ridge west, Tip will chime in with 5 paragraphs about teleconnections setting up destructive interference and Ryan will see nothing in the next 3 weeks to get excited about. Ray will turn to spring training Kevin orders his lawn fertilizer and Ocean State Wx will fire up the golf thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That would be such an odd set up for ice, with well developed lows south of New England. The forecast soundings totally support it across the interior up here, but it would definitely be an outlier upper air pattern I would think. Based on my study anyway. not sure what the total history of this discussion sub-stream is ... heh, but, the giant new england ice storm in the 1920s (reanalytics) was a coastal nor-easter from what i read. just mentioning - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We get it, you want to retreat the ridge west, Tip will chime in with 5 paragraphs about teleconnections setting up destructive interference and Ryan will see nothing in the next 3 weeks to get excited about. Ray will turn to spring training Kevin orders his lawn fertilizer and Ocean State Wx will fire up the golf thread. WRONG! ...it was 7.5 paragraphs...and it was subtly more optimistic than that - nyuk nyuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: not sure what the total history of this discussion sub-stream is ... heh, but, the giant new england ice storm in the 1920s (reanalytics) was a coastal nor-easter from what i read. just mentioning - That's a good point about the origins of this thing. Passing south of LA and then traversing gulf. Definitely not a nina look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was thinking if the lower levels are modeled to warm too quickly (very likely) it may very well be a big scalpfest for a big area. My gut would say that well developed lows tend more towards transitioning areas of mixed precip, rather than sustained and extended periods of it. Like you get FZRA or PL on your way to SN or RA, not hours and hours of FZRA. But with that kind of NE flow, you won't see rapidly warming surface temps for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 LOL, holy frontogenesis over SNE on the NAM. I mean look at the 850mb HP funneling cold air in like that. You never see that. Usually it's maybe a 850mb ridge or some antecedent cold that starts to get wrapped into the low. That's super impressive to me right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, holy frontogenesis over SNE on the NAM. I mean look at the 850mb HP funneling cold air in like that. You never see that. Usually it's maybe a 850mb ridge or some antecedent cold that starts to get wrapped into the low. That's super impressive to me right there. those charts are awesome when things set up like that... It's like watching to giant freight trains careening toward one another on television ... you have a pretty good idea that something interesting is about to take place but you're far less certain what it will look like - hahahaha. Yeah, just on the surface ...there's no way that low can go west of us despite how intense it looks... Once that cold gets involve, ...it doens't uninvolve - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: not sure what the total history of this discussion sub-stream is ... heh, but, the giant new england ice storm in the 1920s (reanalytics) was a coastal nor-easter from what i read. just mentioning - I'm trying to find a good surface map of that one, but that is what I've read as well. 2008 developed into a fair coastal as well. All I was saying is that it's a rare evolution for an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: You would until one of your oaks would make your sofa into a luv seat It's a risk I'm willing to take to experience even just 1" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, holy frontogenesis over SNE on the NAM. I mean look at the 850mb HP funneling cold air in like that. You never see that. Usually it's maybe a 850mb ridge or some antecedent cold that starts to get wrapped into the low. That's super impressive to me right there. And you can clearly see if that block is not there, this thing is cutting to DET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I get the feeling that the interior N of Pike W of ORH is not seeing all rain from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.