dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 That's almost all snow here. This has the look of a big weenie deformation band way up into upstate NY/NNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 holy sh it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I was on Long Island for Dec '92. It was one hell of a wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's almost all snow here. This has the look of a big weenie deformation band way up into upstate NY/NNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 meh, there goes the wind threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. I will agree. If the storm remains intense in the MLs this has isothermal snow bomb written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 That H7 low is way east this run. It goes from like MTP to IZG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. Was gonna say. Those are awfully wrong . That's 32 paster in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. The maps from pivotal are a little more realistic as they don't add sleet or zr into the mix i have found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine. What would you think would be ceiling snow amounts on this in jack zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those snow maps are gonna puke on themselves in this. That's a good man storm just inland. Of course they always tend to spit the bit because they are crap to begin with. I'll be curious to see what the Bufkit soundings look like for that near coast area where it could be a blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Big Euro run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine. And seeing the GFS look like this is a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And seeing the GFS look like this is a positive. Usually sketchy in the BL, So yes, Big positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Of course they always tend to spit the bit because they are crap to begin with. I'll be curious to see what the Bufkit soundings look like for that near coast area where it could be a blue bomb. PWM is all snow through 120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What would you think would be ceiling snow amounts on this in jack zone? Too early to worry about that...it could be a huge storm though if it is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: PWM is all snow through 120hr. Blue bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: PWM is all snow through 120hr. Got to +6C in the warm nose on the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Blue bomb It's pretty cold in the low levels. I'm deep into the 20s for the brunt of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Too early to worry about that...it could be a huge storm though if it is all snow. Man the GFS is awfully close to snow at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Got to +6C in the warm nose on the 06z run. Quite a different look this run. -5C around 1500ft toward the tail end. Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z TUE 24 JAN 17 Station: 43.65,-70.32 Latitude: 43.65 Longitude: -70.32 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 50 SFC 999 55 -1.9 -2.7 94 0.8 -2.2 21 25 271.3 271.9 271.0 279.8 3.13 2 950 456 -5.1 -5.2 99 0.1 -5.1 27 40 272.0 272.5 270.8 279.5 2.73 3 900 881 -2.7 -2.8 99 0.1 -2.8 55 45 278.7 279.3 275.7 288.3 3.44 4 850 1338 -0.3 -0.4 99 0.2 -0.3 79 40 285.9 286.6 280.6 298.3 4.36 5 800 1823 -0.2 -0.4 99 0.2 -0.3 94 35 290.9 291.7 283.1 304.3 4.64 6 750 2339 -1.5 -1.6 99 0.1 -1.6 107 33 294.9 295.7 284.7 308.2 4.52 7 700 2888 -3.1 -3.2 99 0.1 -3.1 119 33 299.1 299.8 286.0 312.0 4.31 8 650 3477 -2.5 -3.0 96 0.5 -2.7 147 39 306.1 307.0 288.9 320.6 4.71 9 600 4110 -5.1 -5.9 94 0.8 -5.5 158 44 310.2 310.9 289.7 323.0 4.09 10 550 4789 -9.0 -9.7 95 0.7 -9.3 160 46 313.4 314.0 290.0 324.1 3.34 11 500 5521 -13.4 -14.0 96 0.5 -13.6 160 48 316.7 317.2 290.3 325.2 2.60 12 450 6315 -18.7 -19.3 95 0.6 -18.9 161 47 319.7 320.1 290.5 325.9 1.84 13 400 7182 -25.1 -25.8 94 0.7 -25.2 164 44 322.4 322.6 290.7 326.4 1.17 14 350 8138 -32.2 -32.4 98 0.2 -32.3 167 53 325.3 325.4 291.1 327.9 0.72 15 300 9208 -40.1 -40.5 96 0.4 -40.1 172 68 328.9 328.9 291.8 330.3 0.37 16 250 10421 -51.6 -51.6 100 0.0 -51.6 174 78 329.4 329.4 291.7 329.9 0.13 17 200 11847 -54.8 -60.1 52 5.3 -54.9 173 63 346.0 346.0 295.8 346.2 0.06 18 150 13704 -51.4 -80.7 2 29.3 -52.0 199 34 381.5 381.5 302.5 381.5 0.00 19 100 16279 -59.7 -83.1 3 23.4 -60.0 204 19 412.4 412.4 306.8 412.4 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GGEM looks pretty snowy for interior...though for some reason it is a torch in the low levels...despite a high sitting just north of Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 this had the potential to be a bruiser for the coast. now it's just a pretty ordinary nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's pretty cold in the low levels. I'm deep into the 20s for the brunt of the event. I may be a bit warmer here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Too early to worry about that...it could be a huge storm though if it is all snow. Could we be talking like April '97 type consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Close to 1.0"+ qpf for the region, Qpf won't be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Could we be talking like April '97 type consistency? Possible...but my gut is that if this ends up snowy, it's not gonna be a complete paste job. Maybe for some areas near the transition it could be, but that high sort of screams for take the under on the boundary layer temps...and also maybe more of a sleet zone versus pasty snow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 So toss all this and forecast "man" snow blue bomb? Quote Although warming will continue aloft and limit the amount of snowfall Monday night, enough cold air will remain in the lower levels to allow for the whole gambit of mixed precipitation. Sleet and freezing rain will be possible over the interior with mainly rain falling along the coast. This mixed precipitation will retreat to the far north on Tuesday with rain falling in most other areas. There will be strong gusty winds Monday into Tuesday, especially along and near the coastline. Expect areas of heavy rain as well which may lead to rises on area rivers, potentially producing ice jam issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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