ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro actually shows -850 east inflow into the Berks and Greens prior to the cut throwing some decent amount of snow into those areas. Trend graphics are pretty interesting at 12Z, would be nice to see that keep up tomorrow. Getting close to running out of time. If we get one more tick robust on that block, it's gonna be a major snowstorm for someone in the interior...but you're right, the clock is rapidly ticking. The block forms around 84-96 hours, so there isn't a ton of time to trend, even though the storm itself is more like 120 hours and beyond. The block is what allows that sneaky cold to get shoved down into Maine and eventually the rest of NE prior to the storm's arrival....there's little nuances that can affect how efficiently that cold is utilized such as when Tip was mentioning the GGEM sort of pulls it down a little better with that lead lobe on the trough....but without the block, none of that matters, so it would be really nice to get one more bump. At least there's a reason to model watch right now. Sometimes crappy longwave patterns can stay interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Mean is 980 is from the Delmarva over the BM then East of CC. However 850 mean is well inland but the Berks and Greens are under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 EPS mean precip is 1.5 to 2.5 inches up to NVT including the majority of NH Maine with snow mean a half foot in the Berks Greens Whites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 One more big rainer for most of us..and then the one on the 28th looks to be the first region wide snowfall since the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: One more big rainer for most of us..and then the one on the 28th looks to be the first region wide snowfall since the 8th I wouldn't sell the 23-24th just yet...it's not a high probability, but there's definitely still a fighting chance for that to be a good interior snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: One more big rainer for most of us..and then the one on the 28th looks to be the first region wide snowfall since the 8th nickle or dime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't sell the 23-24th just yet...it's not a high probability, but there's definitely still a fighting chance for that to be a good interior snow event. I don't see how that happens . Not enough cold air in time. Was that sort of how Dec 92 evolved? Things looked bleak but cold appeared last minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't see how that happens . Not enough cold air in time. Was that sort of how Dec 92 evolved? Things looked bleak but cold appeared last minute? Not the same exact evolution, but they did both involve downstream blocking in Canada with marginal cold...the Dec '92 block was a bit further east which made sense because the ULL came in from a more due westerly angle and sort of just plowed underneath us...this current system is more swinging up from the deep south and will need the block further west to push the ULL under us rather then up through NY State. But the block also solidifies some marginal cold if it is able to hold ground. It would be cold enough for the interior for snow if that happened. It's not a great chance, but I would say it's enough of a chance that it warrants watching. Obviously the further north, the better in the interior, but even down where you are it could produce something if the setup trends a little more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 there's also another signal for around the 27th - 30th, too - but we'll do 'em one at a time I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS mean precip is 1.5 to 2.5 inches up to NVT including the majority of NH Maine with snow mean a half foot in the Berks Greens Whites Yeah I hadn't been paying attention...playing in the pow today...but that's pretty interesting when I just looked through WxBell. That storm at Day 10 on the Euro looks like it would be an absolute monster. Good to see some of this stuff even in fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Mean is 980 is from the Delmarva over the BM then East of CC. However 850 mean is well inland but the Berks and Greens are under the gun. That will produce an ENE wind trajectory, which is much worse for coastal flooding than yesterdays solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Amped said: That will produce an ENE wind trajectory, which is much worse for coastal flooding than yesterdays solution. tides are low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: tides are low That'll help a bit. I'm still impressed with the pressure gradient the GFS is showing, it rivals April 2007 and March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Looks like some pretty impressive PWATs with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 No comments on the 18z GFS tells you just about all you need to know. It looks like garbage... lots of rain for a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: No comments on the 18z GFS tells you just about all you need to know. It looks like garbage... lots of rain for a lot of people Actually it trended better than 12z. You're pretty much out of the game anyway there, but for interior it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: No comments on the 18z GFS tells you just about all you need to know. It looks like garbage... lots of rain for a lot of people There's a decent front end thump for MPM-Hubb and parts of NH/VT. H8 is a little iffy but wetbulbs are near 0C in that warm layer before the warm air overtakes the entire column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: There's a decent front end thump for MPM-Hubb and parts of NH/VT. H8 is a little iffy but wetbulbs are near 0C in that warm layer before the warm air overtakes the entire column. The clown map shows it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: there's also another signal for around the 27th - 30th, too - but we'll do 'em one at a time I suppose It's a general model thread, so have at it by all means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 I almost think that first affair next week is the sort of the A. result of pattern realigning, ...but then once established, we see the bigger event around 28th or so materialize as the "more probably" colder scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: No comments on the 18z GFS tells you just about all you need to know. It looks like garbage... lots of rain for a lot of people There's more to SNE than SE Mass. Most folks don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 It's a wintry mix for a lot of people even on the GFS. I thought it was better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There's more to SNE than SE Mass. Most folks don't live there Well he poo poos things and then will mention an impossible Canadian solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well he poo poos things and then will mention an impossible Canadian solution. He downplayed his way to a foot in that last snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Its definitely worth watching for some, And definitely thereafter, Looks like changes are inbound to more of a wintry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: He downplayed his way to a foot in that last snowstorm. 16"... and idk... I thought it looked a bit icy to start in ORH to Pitt area...and then quickly transitioned.... it did look a bit better than 12z overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually it trended better than 12z. You're pretty much out of the game anyway there, but for interior it's worth watching. I'm not expecting anything here... but I mean... it doesn't look great for anyone at the moment. It did look better than 12z... but still a lot of work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well he poo poos things and then will mention an impossible Canadian solution. I don't think he really even looked at when he posted it . Remember how he thought the Jan 8 storm was a bust and he got like 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I'm not expecting anything here... but I mean... it doesn't look great for anyone at the moment. It did look better than 12z... but still a lot of work to do Well I don't think anyone is going to get too worked up over a 120+ hour solution. Mostly looking at trends right now. It's definitely an uphill climb, but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 It may be a heck of a storm regardless. Tight gradient with lots of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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