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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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Should we start a "bust" "screw zone" thread? I guarantee there will be some folks sitting in bulls eye that get hosed somewhere. No bulls eye here in NW SC be lucky to get our 1-3".

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1 minute ago, oconeexman said:

Should we start a "bust" "screw zone" thread? I guarantee there will be some folks sitting in bulls eye that get hosed somewhere. No bulls eye here in NW SC be lucky to get our 1-3".

Something will go wrong. It always does whether it be a warm nose, lack of qpf due to convection at the gulf coast, ground temp issues, etc. 

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3 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Should we start a "bust" "screw zone" thread? I guarantee there will be some folks sitting in bulls eye that get hosed somewhere. No bulls eye here in NW SC be lucky to get our 1-3".

Isn't that what the "Sanitarium" thread is for?

I expect to be there anyway. ;p

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

NW wave coming in stronger.  18z NAM vs. RAP valid 0z 1/6 (which is in about 45 min)

UNADI6C.gif 

Good or bad thing that it's coming in stronger than the models predicted? 

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Latest RPM has all of the Atlanta metro from I 20 north in 2-5". The snow line is well south of CLT and RDU. CAE rain, GSP close but snow.

Is it showing the hartwell warm bubble screw zone?

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7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Latest RPM has all of the Atlanta metro from I 20 north in 2-5". The snow line is well south of CLT and RDU. CAE rain, GSP close but snow.

CAE all rain through the duration?

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Just now, Cary_Snow95 said:

For you maybe. Bad for people east

Not necessarily. Could slow down and allow more HP to build in.

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Just now, Wow said:

Not necessarily. Could slow down and allow more HP to build in.

Yeah if it slows down. Nam had it super early it seemed like. RGEM and GFS seem to be identical 

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Man, our forecast in NE SC has gone from snow to mix but I'm starting to think we get nothing but rain...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Not necessarily. Could slow down and allow more HP to build in.

I'd imagine a stronger SW would speed it up right or keep it constant when it comes to speed. Regardless, I don't think a HP would help people closer to the coast in SC/NC once this thing begins to ramp up in the Atlantic if it's too close to them.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Liquid Equiv amounts....razor tight

2qbexwi.gif

Verbatim that would really stink for those of us NW of 85, but remember, this is just a model run. Precipitation placement is probably the worst modeled of all aspects of a storm, no model knows where precious and banding will be. I'm way more concerned about the stinking warm nose.

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Some good news on the ICON is it moved heavier precip back NW, although you can see some lee side minimums show up

EGj0W7Z.png

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49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Agreed! I think 1-3" is a good call for GSP metro! When local Mets and GSP, are going 3-6", I would be very leery!

Mack, you and Dr. Franklin and I are on the same wavelength. Been thinking about the 2014 and 2015 storms all day. Both trended bigger  the last 48 and had totals rising, but both came in with way more mixing and tougher warm nose. Instead of big snow totals we got a couple inches of slop both times. This has that written all over it. 1-3 W of Greenville, 2-5 East  if we're lucky. 

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Some good news on the ICON is it moved heavier precip back NW, although you can see some lee side minimums show up

 

To my eye temps looks good from CLT-RDU along I-85 west, right?

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If there is a warm nose modeled, in most cases in the recent past, it is stronger than the modeled soundings show.   A couple of other things.  There were some posts of the Euro 00z and 12Z and it shifted west a hair and the angle also shifted.  It will be telling to see if we get any more shift or if the GEFS seemingly shifting back a bit shows the end of the NW trend.  And that sharp cut off to the west on most models is killing me.  Got to say I am pulling for the hires NAM.  

Congrats to all on the board too.  You made the NCEP look faster than TT for a while today :lol:



    

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