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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1
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3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Step in the right direction. Slower with the system coming out of Texas. It's just not cold enough though. Rain for everyone outside of the mountains.

Are you able to see what happens between 144 and 168?  I'm assuming the cold doesn't get in here quick enough.  From a timing standpoint the storm comes through almost 48 hours earlier on the euro compared to the gfs.

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1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said:

Are you able to see what happens between 144 and 168?  I'm assuming the cold doesn't get in here quick enough.  From a timing standpoint the storm comes through almost 48 hours earlier on the euro compared to the gfs.

Bingo. Gets caught up in the Mountains.

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2 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

We are forecast to go 77 or maybe warmer on Sunday. I have seen many a snow storm come in behind a very warm day. We will see.

In fact its almost seems to be required in good Feb storms.....keep in mind most of NE was in the mid 50's to 60 this time yesterday, Central Park hit 60 yesterday and today they got almost a foot down this morning, my uncle in western Mass has 15-20" right now though they only got to 50 yesterday.

Below is the temps the week of the big Feb 1989 snowstorm we had here, we had 75 on the 21st and 22nd with severe thunderstorms....2 days later on the 24/25th we had 11" snow, the same for Mar 1980. The big Feb hit out west in 2004 had temps in the 60's the week before....it was 70 in RDU 3 days before the sleetfest in 87 where they got 5-8" sleet etc, etc etc....

1989-02-21 76 50 63.0 16.6 2 0 0.12 0.0 0
1989-02-22 M 44 M M M M 0.74 0.0 0
1989-02-23 44 33 38.5 -8.3 26 0 0.02 0.0 0
1989-02-24 33 24 28.5 -18.5 36 0 0.29 2.0 M
1989-02-25 35 13 24.0 -23.2 41 0 0.60 9.0 M

 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

In fact its almost seems to be required in good Feb storms.....keep in mind most of NE was in the mid 50's to 60 this time yesterday, Central Park hit 60 yesterday and today they got almost a foot down this morning

Below is the temps the week of the big Feb 1989 snowstorm we had here, we had 75 on the 21st and 22nd with severe thunderstorms....2 days later on the 24/25th we had 11" snow, the same for Mar 1980. The big Feb hit out west in 2004 had temps in the 60's the week before....it was 70 in RDU 3 days before the sleetfest in 87 where they got 5-8" sleet etc, etc etc....

1989-02-21 76 50 63.0 16.6 2 0 0.12 0.0 0
1989-02-22 M 44 M M M M 0.74 0.0 0
1989-02-23 44 33 38.5 -8.3 26 0 0.02 0.0 0
1989-02-24 33 24 28.5 -18.5 36 0 0.29 2.0 M
1989-02-25 35 13 24.0 -23.2 41 0 0.60 9.0 M

 

My gut was telling me the theory had legs but I didn't have time to research it. Thanks for posting this sir.

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Just now, frazdaddy said:

My gut was telling me the theory had legs but I didn't have time to research it. Thanks for posting this sir.

No problem, its funny you posted that as it had recently been something I had been looking at, to refute all the sun angle and ground temp crap that is surely to pop up this time of year. I was shocked to see just how often it happens that we get good events after well AN periods in Feb. The next few weeks look to be trending in the right direction....if we squeeze a few events out of it it would salvage winter IMBY at least. 

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

A neat look here on the GFS Ensemble mean at day 6.  At this point, each of the big 3 ensembles (GFS, CMC, Euro) essentially have a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO.  Let's go team, we can do this!!

BTqsKbI.gif

Any normal winter this would be a legit threat, deep ull into sw-TX, stout PNA/NAO combo.  And no SER which brings a tear to my eye.

And we don't have to rely on some wave having to dig all the down from Canada and underneath us.

 

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

A neat look here on the GFS Ensemble mean at day 6.  At this point, each of the big 3 ensembles (GFS, CMC, Euro) essentially have a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO.  Let's go team, we can do this!!

 

Well the GPI (Grit Posting Index) is way up into the positive territory so that must mean this is a viable threat.  I'm paying attention! But still worried it's not going to be cold enough.  You would think with the indecies we would score.  The other thing I worry about is the trough being too far east and this slides off the coast out to sea. 

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21 minutes ago, griteater said:

A neat look here on the GFS Ensemble mean at day 6.  At this point, each of the big 3 ensembles (GFS, CMC, Euro) essentially have a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO.  Let's go team, we can do this!!

 

And yet we can't get one single member of the euro (0-51) to spit out a widespread snowy solution in the day 10.....  haha.  I love the look where we are going though.  You have to think we see a look or two in the coming day or three that spits out something fun to look at.

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39 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Well the GPI (Grit Posting Index) is way up into the positive territory so that must mean this is a viable threat.  I'm paying attention! But still worried it's not going to be cold enough.  You would think with the indecies we would score.  The other thing I worry about is the trough being too far east and this slides off the coast out to sea. 

Sadly the WPI (Wow Posting Index) and API (Allan Posting Index) are still negative.

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