franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS Ens looks the best of the 3...then CMC Ens...then Euro Ens. Euro Ens still has a strong nino look to it...southern stream, but it's more west to east zonal, so it's cool, not cold...it does retrograde the N Pac low west in time, but it doesn't have the W Canada / AK ridging like the GFS Ens. Thanks, hopefully this will be a score for the gefs. Didn't the weeklies on Monday look similar to the gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out. Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm. Right now the GFS is doing just that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Thanks, hopefully this will be a score for the gefs. Didn't the weeklies on Monday look similar to the gefs? Yes, the weeklies got to the GEFS look by end of Feb / 1st week of Mar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: As far as op runs, GFS is slowly trending cooler for the last couple of runs, and Euro slightly as well. Thought I heard one time the GFS has been doing better with pattern recognition , atleast this year, and wasn't it the 1st to move this current storm to the NYC bomb we have today? We will see Mack, the 'GFS storm' (and Digex) is the only game in town right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 The GEFS still looks good in the LR. Although I continue to post the 384 image, it arrives at this general look earlier in the run. The Aleutian low is still present, along with very western robust ridging. This continues to direct the flow out of the arctic and allows the PV to drop and build into eastern Canada, keeping a general ridge west/trough east pattern in the US. I also like the trough east of HI. This should help counteract any tendency for the PNA to drop into negative territory. Storm threats will depend on timing, as always, but this is not a torchy look. It should be below average in the SE, if the GEFS is correct. The GEPS somewhat agrees. Sounds like the EPS is not onboard. But you have to like the consistency we've seen in the GEFS over the last week. Like I said, this isn't a snowstorm pattern, per se, but it does put a lot of the players in our field. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The GEFS still looks good in the LR. Although I continue to post the 384 image, it arrives at this general look earlier in the run. The Aleutian low is still present, along with very western robust ridging. This continues to direct the flow out of the arctic and allows the PV to drop and build into eastern Canada, keeping a general ridge west/trough east pattern in the US. I also like the trough east of HI. This should help counteract any tendency for the PNA to drop into negative territory. Storm threats will depend on timing, as always, but this is not a torchy look. It should be below average in the SE, if the GEFS is correct. The GEPS somewhat agrees. Sounds like the EPS is not onboard. But you have to like the consistency we've seen in the GEFS over the last week. Like I said, this isn't a snowstorm pattern, per se, but it does put a lot of the players in our field. We'll see.... Stylin and profilin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The GEFS still looks good in the LR. Although I continue to post the 384 image, it arrives at this general look earlier in the run. The Aleutian low is still present, along with very western robust ridging. This continues to direct the flow out of the arctic and allows the PV to drop and build into eastern Canada, keeping a general ridge west/trough east pattern in the US. I also like the trough east of HI. This should help counteract any tendency for the PNA to drop into negative territory. Storm threats will depend on timing, as always, but this is not a torchy look. It should be below average in the SE, if the GEFS is correct. The GEPS somewhat agrees. Sounds like the EPS is not onboard. But you have to like the consistency we've seen in the GEFS over the last week. Like I said, this isn't a snowstorm pattern, per se, but it does put a lot of the players in our field. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Lol... great stuff as usual Cr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Interesting divergence between euro/GFS MJO for late Feb into March. Phase 7 is warm east and phase 1 is cold though Euro is heading for cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6z Para looks good...nice snow hole right over Wake County. Suck at fantasy snows now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... great stuff as usual Cr Thanks man. And Lol NSFY. Pack, I don't follow you... So phase 7 is warm. Good deal. Both models go into phase 8 and eventually into the COD, but the Euro actually takes it into phase 1 before going into the COD. So it looks like it would present the preferable outcome here between the two models. I have noticed that the GFS (and even the other models to an extent) often tends to weaken the pulse too quickly, which would make me inclined to lean towards the Euro (which is why I have been posting the Euro MJO plot every day as opposed to the GFS). Now, going into the COD after being in a cool phase may not be a bad thing. I remember that Larry presented some stats on that which concluded (if memory serves) the SE did well in the temp department when the MJO was in the COD on the left side. Now that said, I don't recall if this was independent of ENSO, QBO, Solar Wind, Bovine Wind, bean curds, moose turds or whatever. And I'm sure if there's a way to screw it up, we'll take that path in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Thanks man. Pack, I don't follow you... So phase 7 is warm. Good deal. Both models go into phase 8 and eventually into the COD, but the Euro actually takes it into phase 1 before going into the COD. So it looks like it would present the preferable outcome here between the two models. I have noticed that the GFS (and even the other models to an extent) often tends to weaken the pulse too quickly, which would make me inclined to lean towards the Euro (which is why I have been posting the Euro MJO plot every day as opposed to the GFS). Now, going into the COD after being in a cool phase may not be a bad thing. I remember that Larry presented some stats on that which concluded (if memory serves) the SE did well in the temp department when the MJO was in the COD on the left side. Now, I don't recall if this was independent of ENSO, QBO, Solar Wind, Bovine Wind, bean curds, moose turds or whatever. And I'm sure if there's a way to screw it up, we'll take that path in a hurry. Well GEFS is showing it looping back into Ph7. I think your right on Euro being preferable with high amplitude cool phase that dives into COD. The GEFS was first to show the high amplitude ph8 and Euro followed. Doesn't mean it's right here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Isn't that cutoff low a thing of beauty!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: 6z Para looks good...nice snow hole right over Wake County. Suck at fantasy snows now. No fantasy the 18th is my bday. Snowed north of Danville 7 years ago before I moved to FL....book it as my welcome back north gift lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well GEFS is showing it looping back into Ph7. I think your right on Euro being preferable with high amplitude cool phase that dives into COD. The GEFS was first to show the high amplitude ph8 and Euro followed. Doesn't mean it's right here though. Ok, I see what you're saying now. Interesting that the LR GEFS H5 doesn't reflect what you'd expect to see based on its MJO prog, and the LR EPS H5 doesn't reflect what you'd expect to see based on its MJO prog. Haha! I looked at all of the other model MJO plots as well. Here's what I observed: GFS Camp: TCWB (whatever that is) Euro Camp: CMET, JMAN, EMON (which I think is the Euro suite), and BOMM The UK doesn't go out far enough to tell. Anyway, the Euro has more support, but the GFS could very well be right. We'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 ULL west of the 6z position at 138. 1026 HP dropping out of central Canada a little faster than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 ULL still slightly west of 6z at 150. 1028 HP 1 mb stronger than 6z and in virtually the same position as 6z. Vortex in the NE a bit stronger and thus slightly more of a cold press into the SE....going by H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 GFS continues to improve with the 12z. A little more stream separation (this year's buzzword)...and colder. May or may not yield a snow fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Low in the Gulf significantly SW of 6z at 162. HP sliding in a tad quicker and the NE vortex stronger and thus stronger with the cold press. If the system is not squashed, it will produce some pretty snow maps. Get ready.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Probably squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Vortex in the NE in a really good 50/50 position at 168. HP slightly stronger, just north of MN, moving slowly ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Low in the Gulf significantly SW of 6z at 162. HP sliding in a tad quicker and the NE vortex stronger and thus stronger with the cold press. If the system is not squashed, it will produce some pretty snow maps. Get ready.... Thinking it will be squashed south, but some nice features...W Canada ridge, 50/50 low, sfc high over Midwest...big wave in TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Yay, play by play is back. At least we have that right? My focus is having the EPS cave to the GEFS in the long range. Should see it happen about 3:30 today right? Who's doing the PBP for that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I agree, Grit. Looking like it's going to move too far south. BUT, there are some really good things about this run. Stronger NE vortex, in a better position, and a nice western ridge. It won't take very much to change things for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Thinking it will be squashed south, but some nice features...W Canada ridge, 50/50 low, sfc high over Midwest...big wave in TX May not be a terribly bad thing at this point in time as it always seems to come back N or NW. Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I agree, Grit. Looking like it's going to move too far south. BUT, there are some really good things about this run. Stronger NE vortex, in a better position, and a nice western ridge. It won't take very much to change things for the better. yeah we can crank the play by play back up with this kind of look....need more 'other model' support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Compare. 6z 186: 12z 180: Notice the HP building in nicely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I agree, Grit. Looking like it's going to move too far south. BUT, there are some really good things about this run. Stronger NE vortex, in a better position, and a nice western ridge. It won't take very much to change things for the better. Storm moving NW to us is a given. Not worried about suppression. The trick is getting the storm to move NW, without the cold/Vortex ALSO moving NW with it. That's the bugaboo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 low going through central fl, exactly what we want to see at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Probably squashed. Yep, on this run. But we can work with this right?! Thick Blue Line: 850 Freezing Thin Blue Line: 2 M Freezing Thin Red Line: 925 Freezing Image from AM/WX Model Center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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