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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

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2 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

Lol at the NAM map ColdRain posted. Looks like someone purposefully took out SE Wake County from the 12" contours

It's just cause I live here.

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I am stunned...I really never considered us to get this much rain, or really any rain.  I have big puddles everywhere.  Nothing had this.  Tracking snow sucks, LOL.

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I am stunned...I really never considered us to get this much rain, or really any rain.  I have big puddles everywhere.  Nothing had this.  Tracking snow sucks, LOL.



I opened the back door in Durham/Southpoint a little while ago and got a blast of *wet* coldish air in the face. So weird. It didn't even feel that cold, although it's supposedly just above 32 around here.

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I also feel really bad for the slopes in NC, although this is a great weekend for them, its been a struggle for a few years now.  The end of this month may just do them in.

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Honestly at this point I don't really want any winter precip, a 33F rain would be fine with me.  With the temps coming in on the backside I'll be stranded here until Tuesday and will miss getting to eat dinner with a friend visiting the area on Monday that I haven't seen in three years.  12"+, that's worth being shut-in for, much less than that, especially this glop... eh, pass.

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Compared to the mets and others on this board i don't know anything about the weather.  But here in Charlotte this feels like deja vu.  Sitting here waiting for the rain to change over to snow.  Watching a stronger than expected warm nose give us sleet.  Wondering why the radar returns don't look good any more (maybe not an issue with this particular storm).  It just seems like no matter how good things look leading up to the event we revert to climo.  It's snowing in the mountains.  It's snowing north of 85.  85 (maybe 40 to the east) is the rain/snow line.  We can watch models for days but is all seems to always come back to this.  

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41 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I don't think we will have to worry about that.  The good news I think we will either be snow or rain and from the looks of things it seems like the latter.  The only models showing rain was the 4km NAM and its not pretty.

Maybe some freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon.  Some more good news we won't be holed up in our houses this weekend, roads will be fine.

Our climo has changed, we just can't get snow.  

I wouldn't necessarily say our climo has changed. We went through terrible snow droughts in 1990-1995, 1997-1999, and 2005-2008. We're just not very good at getting snow.

Of course I have hit the bottle tonight to celebrate (read: forget) this event so perhaps I missed your sarcasm in that statement.

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9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Where the heck is the sleet?

Pack, let us know how far the RGEM ticks SE.  It will.  That is a Cold Rain Guarantee.

I'm ashamed to admit it but the latest HRRR and NAM have sucked me back into this. We can still do it!

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11 minutes ago, Supercane said:

I'm ashamed to admit it but the latest HRRR and NAM have sucked me back into this. We can still do it!

I wouldn't get sucked in too hard.  The surface temp profile is abysmal.  The cold air feed is weak and what looked like a sure all frozen event in the low 20s a couple of days ago is going to end up being mostly rain or sleet with temps in the low to mid 30s for a long time.

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Seriously, this might be the worst storm yet over the last 5 years when it comes to teasing me about a good snow, then having nothing but a 33 degree cold rain. At least the other ones had sleet or freezing rain mixed in. That being said, not nearly as dissapointed because I had a huge reality check last night when the 0z Euro came in and it agreed with the NAM and RGEM. Just 24 hours ago, 100% of GEFS members had me getting at least 3 inches...I'm not even sure if I'll get a dusting at the very end.

 

Note to Self in the future: When the Euro and NAM agree, lock that solution in.

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5 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Seriously, this might be the worst storm yet over the last 5 years when it comes to teasing me about a good snow, then having nothing but a 33 degree cold rain. At least the other ones had sleet or freezing rain mixed in. That being said, not nearly as dissapointed because I had a huge reality check last night when the 0z Euro came in and it agreed with the NAM and RGEM. Just 24 hours ago, 100% of GEFS members had me getting at least 3 inches...I'm not even sure if I'll get a dusting at the very end.

 

Note to Self in the future: When the Euro and NAM agree, lock that solution in.

And a corollary to that: if any model or person says "no p-type issues, plenty of cold", they're just wrong. Totally wrong, every time.

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I thought February 2015 was bad, but this is pathetic. At least back then the snow line was three miles to my north and I saw some snowflakes; now I don't even know when the RA/SN line will even make it to I-85, much less McDonough, before the whole thing is over.

What I fear is that people around here (the public, not the great people at AmWX) will say, "Oh, we had a winter storm warning and the weather people said we'd get 3" of snow, but instead I got half an inch of ice and no snow! Why should I ever listen to them again? They have no idea what they're talking 'bout!"

 

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We all should have saw this coming once it was known that we had to depend on the cold air coming over the mountains. That will not cut it for a good many of us. I'm shocked that the rain snow line is as far south as it is. 

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11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I wouldn't get sucked in too hard.  The surface temp profile is abysmal.  The cold air feed is weak and what looked like a sure all frozen event in the low 20s a couple of days ago is going to end up being mostly rain or sleet with temps in the low to mid 30s for a long time.

Yeah the usual NW trend really screwed us over. The HRRR and NAM are interesting enough to keep watching in the very slim chance this overperforms -- but no reason to expect more than an inch of snow (and extra sleet) in the southern half of Wake given the issues you outlined, imo.

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3 minutes ago, Supercane said:

Yeah the usual NW trend really screwed us over. The HRRR and NAM are interesting enough to keep watching in the very slim chance this overperforms -- but no reason to expect more than an inch of snow (and extra sleet) in the southern half of Wake given the issues you outlined, imo.

I think the GFS just put any hopes of overperforming to bed.

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1 minute ago, Supercane said:

Yeah the usual NW trend really screwed us over. The HRRR and NAM are interesting enough to keep watching in the very slim chance this overperforms -- but no reason to expect more than an inch of snow (and extra sleet) in the southern half of Wake given the issues you outlined, imo.

These winter storm systems rarely rarely overperform. It's funny. After these types of storms are over, more often than not, people are complaining that they were dryslotted or precip. ended much earlier then modeled.

 

It's just amazing how we can get so much precip. in the winter(December - Feb averages over 12 inches here in the Atlanta area), yet the occurance of a snowstorm actually giving you big numbers(12+ inches) is so incredibly, incredibly rare....in fact, it's not happened once in Atlanta in the last 100 years.

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