moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Riding the fence here, The Euro has been steadfast with a more eastern track which holds the cold and snow further to the coast, It has been locked on this solution for days, The other model guidance has shifted back and forth, Should be an interesting day on the models, But i can see a bust in either direction. I was suprised to see the extent of the taint up your way. Hopefully, things will nudge colder today. I'm toast on the coast but you can still come away with a big event--I'm thinking you will. We'll know more in a couple hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: It was about 10F warmer than MOS here last night...barely went below freezing imby. Yeah I can't believe how warm it has been the last day. It has been a meltapalooza! Thank God we have a storm coming just-in-time to ensure that our continuous snow-covered continues. I'm down to around 3 inches in the yard and there's probably 5 to 6 inches in the woods . There's actually spots opening up on the sunny hay fields round here which is truly disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Totals certainly have been trimmed closer to the coast. http://www.weather.gov/images/gyx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I was suprised to see the extent of the taint up your way. Hopefully, things will nudge colder today. I'm toast on the coast but you can still come away with a big event--I'm thinking you will. We'll know more in a couple hours though. The euro has stayed the course here now for 3 days, Its either going to score a coup or it may slide towards the other guidance, I just don't see that happening, It has been consistently 12+" for 3 days or so, The other guidance has wavered from run to run with the GFS being the warmest, We may know today or this may end up even going to nowcast for here, I think areas back the the NW are a lock for the higher totals, The wildcard will be here to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Surprised at how high BOX is estimating for my area. 2-4 during the day tomorrow and 5-9 at night. A little overdone, I suspect. The gradients are tight, though. Fitchburg is 1-3 day and 8-12 at night. Must have something to do with northward progression. Meanwhile Webster, about the same distance south from me as Fitchburg is north is expected to get 3-5 total. I'd move the Webster total north to about my area and maybe ORH totals up to Fitchburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: Surprised at how high BOX is estimating for my area. 2-4 during the day tomorrow and 5-9 at night. A little overdone, I suspect. The gradients are tight, though. Fitchburg is 1-3 day and 8-12 at night. Must have something to do with northward progression. Meanwhile Webster, about the same distance south from me as Fitchburg is north is expected to get 3-5 total. I'd move the Webster total north to about my area and maybe ORH totals up to Fitchburg. Right! What model is BOX,& Gray maine using?, I am under 12-16" for my county, some calling for 5-7" total here in my city, just wondering what model they are locked into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 They are probably blending and you are far enough inland. I would be forecasting 8-12 for you with a concern for dryslotting for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm confident in the 8-12" being progged here. That confidence drops precipitously (no pun intended) over short distances as you go south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, 512high said: Right! What model is BOX,& Gray maine using?, I am under 12-16" for my county, some calling for 5-7" total here in my city, just wondering what model they are locked into GYX has us down to 6" in our "most likely" and places like wunderground now have us down to 1-4" totals. It's still December and thankful for anything, but come on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just expecting a bit of meh here. Good look for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: They are probably blending and you are far enough inland. I would be forecasting 8-12 for you with a concern for dryslotting for a time ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 On the BOX maps, I notice there is a wider disparity between "most likely" and "lowest potential" than there is between "most likely" and "highest potential". I think that suggests there is less likelihood it will bust high and more that it comes in lower than the 'most likely' scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: On the BOX maps, I notice there is a wider disparity between "most likely" and "lowest potential" than there is between "most likely" and "highest potential". I think that suggests there is less likelihood it will bust high and more that it comes in lower than the 'most likely' scenario. I thought it was reckoning in the 25%, 50%, and 75% range (or 10%, 50%, 90%) meaning about 25% or 10% in the upper/lower ranges. This might support the "bust" rationale in terms of range, but I can't see the rationale for weighting one end or the other in terms of likelihood. Of course, statistics was not my forte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 15 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: GYX has us down to 6" in our "most likely" and places like wunderground now have us down to 1-4" totals. It's still December and thankful for anything, but come on man! doesn't make sense when nashua is 12-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 46 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yeah I can't believe how warm it has been the last day. It has been a meltapalooza! Thank God we have a storm coming just-in-time to ensure that our continuous snow-covered continues. I'm down to around 3 inches in the yard and there's probably 5 to 6 inches in the woods . There's actually spots opening up on the sunny hay fields round here which is truly disturbing. Has been; yesterday was spring-like. But what I was getting at is this colder airmass seems to be setting in nicely (finally). It took its time after the fropa, but it's here. It feels like winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 you guys seem way too nervous lol. frantically looking at every nws update, questioning which model they are using, comparing their snow maps to see which way your yards are trending....holy moly new englanders. just track it, get crushed or bust, and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: doesn't make sense when nashua is 12-16". came into my phone at 420am, said for my county, granted, It covers some high elev. but 12-16... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: you guys seem way too nervous, frantically looking at every nws update, questioning which model they are using, comparing their snow maps to see which way your yards are trending....holy moly new englanders. just track it, get crushed or bust, and enjoy it. You are absolutely right! With that, I'm going to breakfast and not fretting over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: you guys seem way too nervous lol. frantically looking at every nws update, questioning which model they are using, comparing their snow maps to see which way your yards are trending....holy moly new englanders. just track it, get crushed or bust, and enjoy it. I understand I am a wennie, however, for plow operations, manpower, etc. I'm just trying to get an idea, I understand some model runs will change again and again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: I thought it was reckoning in the 25%, 50%, and 75% range (or 10%, 50%, 90%) meaning about 25% or 10% in the upper/lower ranges. This might support the "bust" rationale in terms of range, but I can't see the rationale for weighting one end or the other in terms of likelihood. Of course, statistics was not my forte. Correct in that it's showing probability. What I'm saying is that within the same range of variability, there's more room on the downside than there is on the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 28 minutes ago, 512high said: Right! What model is BOX,& Gray maine using?, I am under 12-16" for my county, some calling for 5-7" total here in my city, just wondering what model they are locked into Well, They don't split counties, So if your in the southern part and you are being in Nashua and the folks in the northern part are going to see those accumulations you will be included, This system has a real sharp gradient to where the heavy snow and snow/rain will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: you guys seem way too nervous lol. frantically looking at every nws update, questioning which model they are using, comparing their snow maps to see which way your yards are trending....holy moly new englanders. just track it, get crushed or bust, and enjoy it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, 512high said: came into my phone at 420am, said for my county, granted, It covers some high elev. but 12-16... I think they can split the eastern part of the zone off, but its a pretty big county. I would feel pretty good about 12" in the WNW part of the county. Further east remains to be seen at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: LOL. We know what side of the gradient he is on.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I think they can split the eastern part of the zone off, but its a pretty big county. I would feel pretty good about 12" in the WNW part of the county Just like in most cases, West is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: We know what side of the gradient he is on.................. You're walking the line there as well, correct? See if things go to town in time to help your cause. i'm looking forward to my drought busting rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You're walking the line there as well, correct? See if things go to town in time to help your cause. i'm looking forward to my drought busting rains. Yup, Its the low track, Euro keeps it to the east, Rest of the guidance tracks it overhead, I have been beat by 20 miles before, Quite sure it will happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Well, They don't split counties, So if your in the southern part and you are being in Nashua and the folks in the northern part are going to see those accumulations you will be included, This system has a real sharp gradient to where the heavy snow and snow/rain will fall. The NWS has split counties in the past. PHI did it with Burling, Chester, Montgomery, & Bucks. LWX did it with Baltimore, Harford, Montgomery, Howard, Loudoun and Fairfax counties. CTP did it with Clinton, Lycoming and Centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah, Gray splits Hillsborough into Eastern and Central/Western. "Eastern" Hillsborough is basically along Route 3/Everett Turnpike from Nashua to Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The NWS has split counties in the past. PHI did it with Burling, Chester, Montgomery, & Bucks. LWX did it with Baltimore, Harford, Montgomery, Howard, Loudoun and Fairfax counties. CTP did it with Clinton, Lycoming and Centre. Quite sure its easier down there, But when your in an area like i am and many here that sit at 200' elevation and you have towns 20 miles to your west that are at 1,500'+ You get lumped in, That where knowing your climo comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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