wxeyeNH Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Jeez. Up here I'm in that 18" plus zone. Even taking the 2/3 theory since that is the NAM what a dump in a 6 hour period. Better head to bed now and be well rested for that bowl of Popcorn and the spotlights tomorrow eve. It's like the night before a Pats SuperBowl. Love it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I mean the mid level tracks are much more in line with the Euro now. EE rule in effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 NAM is a smoker out here. I think N ORH Co. gets crushed. Glad I canceled a work trip to Shirley tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean the mid level tracks are much more in line with the Euro now. EE rule in effect? The Euro has been locked for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Jeez. Up here I'm in that 18" plus zone. Even taking the 2/3 theory since that is the NAM what a dump in a 6 hour period. Better head to bed now and be well rested for that bowl of Popcorn and the spotlights tomorrow eve. It's like the night before a Pats SuperBowl. Love it.... id be worried then....heavy favorites ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The Euro has been locked for days Unfortunately it is still pretty much toast for me, but at least I'll be working it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Unfortunately it is still pretty much toast for me, but at least I'll be working it. What are you expecting at the WFO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Unfortunately it is still pretty much toast for me, but at least I'll be working it.Just read the GYX discussion. Is it a sure thing we're changing to rain tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: NAM is a smoker out here. I think N ORH Co. gets crushed. Glad I canceled a work trip to Shirley tomorrow. Yeah--it's doubled down for us. Let's see if the RGEM rises to the occassion. It's been pretty steady the last couple of runs with its amounts for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Unfortunately it is still pretty much toast for me, but at least I'll be working it. Yep, looking forward to a slightly colder rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: What are you expecting at the WFO? We're saying around 3-6", that seems fair at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Just read the GYX discussion. Is it a sure thing we're changing to rain tomorrow night? Maybe not slam dunk, but still we're close enough that we may trade rain for dry slot instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We're saying around 3-6", that seems fair at this point.Damn that's horrible. What could have been. Maybe a late Xmas miracle??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like you and I are riding the gradient for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Looks like you and I are riding the gradient for this one No one exhale...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Looks like you and I are riding the gradient for this one On the chalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: snow maps dont do the 0z nam justice south of pike.., thats a pretty strong stinger in NCT from litchfield to windham counties as it swings thru. ill take the para and run!! went back and forth with this storm, hopefully nowcast is a better solution than the 4" I'm still sticking with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 slightly confused why it struggles to snow back this way. at hr 23 on nam, im like -12c at 700 and -3c at 850 so i would have to assume 925, which i cant see, is too torched? but if 925 seems to be the key why even look at levels above it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: slightly confused why it struggles to snow back this way. at hr 23 on nam, im like -12c at 700 and -3c at 850 so i would have to assume 925, which i cant see, is too torched? but if 925 seems to be the key why even look at levels above it? Perturbations in the fine tuning on some of the mesos, you'll bust to the high side on snow totals I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 RGEM looks nice--even south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We're getting a bit faster cyclogenesis on the 00z suite...not by much, but it's enough to make a difference in places that are riding the line like ORH-ASH...and it's shifting things just a pinch east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: slightly confused why it struggles to snow back this way. at hr 23 on nam, im like -12c at 700 and -3c at 850 so i would have to assume 925, which i cant see, is too torched? but if 925 seems to be the key why even look at levels above it? Here's the sounding for Waterbury at that time: Torched from 1600 feet on down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: RGEM looks nice--even south of the Pike. I'm no met or algorithmic modeler , but that hole in the heart of VT may suggest something is going on with that particular model- no other model has that. that's extremely odd, and should be considered as a WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're getting a bit faster cyclogenesis on the 00z suite...not by much, but it's enough to make a difference in places that are riding the line like ORH-ASH...and it's shifting things just a pinch east. For the ones riding the gradient even 10-20 miles makes a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 And then comes the GFS to turn the excitement of the meso's to a bunch of 'meh'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, ono said: I'm no met or algorithmic modeler , but that hole in the heart of VT may suggest something is going on with that particular model- no other model has that. that's extremely odd, and should be considered as a WTF Model over compensating for the Ct River Valley and some poorly calculated topographic nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Model over compensating for the Ct River Valley and some poorly calculated topographic nuances. That sounds convincing, Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: And then comes the GFS to turn the excitement of the meso's to a bunch of 'meh'. Don't kid yourself, the common theme is that every model has you in the best spot of anyone in SNE. lol (not that I'm a martyr where I sit either) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Here's the sounding for Waterbury at that time: Torched from 1600 feet on down. thanks man, yea i need to find a good page for soundings. going off maps, meh. wasnt far off with at 700 and 850 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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