Welcome to American Weather
MAG5035

Central PA - February 2017

1,702 posts in this topic

13 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP is calling for 1-2 inches of snow in the LSV tomorrow night. Most of the short range models are in that range, but we could end up with 2-3 inches due to good ratios.

Whatever we end up getting, it will stick around until early next week with the frigid temps that are on the way.

CTP now has me at 1-3.  I'll go buy the Champagne.... :).

Beggars cant be choosers.  At least whatever we get sticks around to look like winter for a few days.

Storm #2 looks like a VA Capes deal.  Lucky [email protected]  They done even like snow.

Nut

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm liking a general 1-3" for the LSV from Chambersburg to the east. Some spots IMO could pick up more if they get a lucky band. Bufkit soundings looked good for a high ratio snow. Break out the brooms for this one!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the RAP for KLNS on bufkit shows a pretty nice high ratio event for there. Taking a look at the cross section, seems like the best ratio will come around 20:1 during the height this evening with an average around 15:1 so it's not going to take much to get to 2-3" for around there. I really like where the southern tier sits. I could see some 3" reports out near the MD line tonight. I love snow, especially nice light fluffy snow that stacks quick!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And #2 is ticking NW but likely still too far south and east to get us into the good stuff. Sharpen that trough a bit more and hey...who knows. Running outta time for much more wiggle though.  

Enjoy the mood snow tonight!

Nut 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Flizzard conditions here right now as steadier snow is still working on consolidating itself. 

Starting to look like another messy warmup ahead of the cutter early next week, as it cuts pretty far west and it will have to rout an arctic airmass in place. Could actually score some WAA snowfall in the early stages, and of course ice. We'll have to keep an eye on that.

The difference between the D10 GFS and Euro at 12z today is an example of why I have been paying less attention to anything beyond that point more than usual this year, as the disagreement and run to run "continuity" have been comical at times even within D5-10. For the record I'm rooting for the 12z Euro D10. GFS insistence on a cutter parade is something that can't necessarily be discounted with how things have went this winter. Although if we could time the placement of one of these strong arctic highs right and force a storm underneath it for a change..we could actually get a Euro D10 type outcome. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Light snow finally began falling in Marysville around 11 pm. The rate has picked up & all surfaces are covered. It looks like about about half of an inch on the ground.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right at midnight I recorded 0.3" of snowfall.  A solid white cover, very crystalline, now covers most things.  Flakes really did not pick up in size and intensity until around 11:00pm, with only a trace recorded up until that point.  So, most of the accumulation has fallen just in the past one hour.

Temp at 26.8 degrees. 

Hoping for an inch by dawn, making it the biggest event of this season.  I might have had an inch last Thursday morning but I was out of town and was unable to get a measurement taken before it all melted.

My son, (CarlislePaWxJr) is now a flight attendant with Delta and has been based out at MSP since last April.  He just got his base change request granted and is heading to ATL as of February 1st.  It looks like he is going to be living close to Norcross, which is a northeast suburb of Atlanta.  Tonight, his area is under a winter storm warning for 2-4" of snow late tomorrow and tomorrow night.  However, tonight's GFS is showing the ATL metro up through Gwinnett county getting from 6-8" of snow!  Will be watching that area to see what they ultimately pick up tomorrow night.  Oh yeah, one other thing...it was zero degrees (F) in St. Paul this afternoon when he was headed off to work.  He cannot wait to get out of the cold and into the warmer climate of the southeast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to say eyeball in Akron at about 2-2.5" as well.  Its purty outside.  Need the left handed windshifter for tomorrows event as I think were all on the sidelines for this one.  Damn southerners stealing our snow.

Just read that last nights weeklies sound like after the next couple weeks of much the same, a more appreciable pattern is being modeled with a +PNA and yes, you heard it here folks.....a slightly -NAO.  (I'll believe that when I see it), but ridge west, trough east.  Lets hope so.  I'm sorta shortsighted right now as we've been able to enjoy tracking this weeks stuff, so really havent put too much time into longer leads.  Will start sniffing more next week.

Have a good one all.

 

Nut

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm going to say eyeball in Akron at about 2-2.5" as well.  Its purty outside.  Need the left handed windshifter for tomorrows event as I think were all on the sidelines for this one.  Damn southerners stealing our snow.

Just read that last nights weeklies sound like after the next couple weeks of much the same, a more appreciable pattern is being modeled with a +PNA and yes, you heard it here folks.....a slightly -NAO.  (I'll believe that when I see it), but ridge west, trough east.  Lets hope so.  I'm sorta shortsighted right now as we've been able to enjoy tracking this weeks stuff, so really havent put too much time into longer leads.  Will start sniffing more next week.

Have a good one all.

 

Nut

 

Eric seemed confident earlier this week that February was going to be our month for cold and snow. I think it was in his SWD. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Eric seemed confident earlier this week that February was going to be our month for cold and snow. I think it was in his SWD. 

Well so does this Erik.

:)

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0.8" was all I ended up with last night, the immediate downsloping off the Allegheny front was in full effect around here given the westerly flow and very weak system...plus some of the better echoes ended up south of here.

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

I'm going to say eyeball in Akron at about 2-2.5" as well.  Its purty outside.  Need the left handed windshifter for tomorrows event as I think were all on the sidelines for this one.  Damn southerners stealing our snow.

Just read that last nights weeklies sound like after the next couple weeks of much the same, a more appreciable pattern is being modeled with a +PNA and yes, you heard it here folks.....a slightly -NAO.  (I'll believe that when I see it), but ridge west, trough east.  Lets hope so.  I'm sorta shortsighted right now as we've been able to enjoy tracking this weeks stuff, so really havent put too much time into longer leads.  Will start sniffing more next week.

Have a good one all.

 

Nut

 

I know I got a kick out of the board getting knocked out for 5-10min last night when either the 18z or 0z NAM adjusted NW enough to give DC about 5 inches of snow haha. I wish we would've gotten more involved with the bigger system, although the last few NAM and SREF runs had been trying to get measurable up into York/Lancaster counties. Just saw the morning 12z NAM went back southeast more in between where the Euro and GFS was.  I'd still be surprised if much made it past DC, much less into far SC PA. Air mass is way too cold in PA and not enough amplification/too much progression in the pattern to really play up a major NW extent to the precip shield. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So about the NAM...reading through the sub forum directly to our south, and the prevailing sentiment is that it is never right. I never read anything good about that model. Like ever. 

I will just say this - it was just this past January when both the GFS and the almighty to God Euro were consistently keeping the major snows well south of my locale, while the NAM was...NAM'ing us. Funny, I think it was at 18Z on the 21st (don't quote me on that) that the NAM had south central PA getting over 30" of snow. Everyone scoffed.

How many of us south of Blue Mountain were buried under 30"+ 2 days later? I don't give a rat's ass what anyone says, the NAM beat the big boys with the big daddy. 

I guess it's pretty much sucked since. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dont look now, but the 12z GooFuS just did a nice tick.......

 

wait for it...............

 

NW.  

 

Likely flakes on the edge for some of us, but the trend has been real, and is at least teasing some of us (and keeping me awake at night).  

I'm such a sucker for snow.

 

Nut

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

dont look now, but the 12z GooFuS just did a nice tick.......

 

wait for it...............

 

NW.  

 

Likely flakes on the edge for some of us, but the trend has been real, and is at least teasing some of us (and keeping me awake at night).  

I'm such a sucker for snow.

 

Nut

 

I'm watching and hoping...I just think we're still somewhat significantly too far removed from this one. I just think the cold air mass in place is going to erode that northwest shield away more than what we'd want. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.