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MAG5035

Central PA - February 2017

1,702 posts in this topic

Fresh C-PA thread to go into the holidays. 

Should be quiet and seasonable this week leading up to Christmas. The minor northern system that looked to impact our weather mid-week with probably a light mixture has trended north as of late, taking the precip with it and only serving as a dry frontal passage and a brief enforcement of seasonably cold December air prior to the next major US system. This system looks to traverse the country over the Christmas weekend into early next week... definitely looking to cut west of PA and perhaps significantly so. Today's 12z GFS cuts the storm so far west it makes it rain in most of Minnesota and our area doesn't really see much precip from the system itself.. other than with the frontal passage (not a lot of QPF). Overnight Euro was similar but slower with this system, and it had a very weak wave of precip traversing PA on Christmas eve which potentially looked cold enough for a little light snow at least for the central and north. 

Overall the next 6-10..probably more like 8-14 days continue to look really unfavorable for systems to deliver much snow on this end of the country or for much of a deep cold air intrusion after temps quickly moderate back to average this week. Teleconnections are lousy with a +EPO/WPO, -PNA, and +NAO/AO. The -PNA/+NAO combination is especially influencing as both have been pretty established and have a fairly high amplitude. The -PNA has focused the mean trough and associated worst of the arctic cold in the central and west of the country. We can work with a -PNA if we have a good -NAO to drive down heights in the east in response to the downstream Greenland blocking and take advantage of an active pattern of Pacific systems by tracking systems straight across the country. Unfortunately we have the opposite of that, which makes for a mean ridge in the southeast in response to the western trough in the absence of -NAO blocking.. which in turn takes all major systems into the midwest/lakes. The +AO looks to really grow in amplitude in the latest forecasts, which will further serve to keep any cold shots brief and bottle up arctic cold in the far northern US and Canada as the anomalously low heights will largely reside over the polar regions. That's not to say we will be seeing the kind of weather we saw in late December last year... it doesn't necessarily look exceptionally warm... but going into the New Year we look to average normal to somewhat above normal temp wise.

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Despite temps that crept above freezing today, the glacier pack is still solid enough to walk on in most spots without breaking through. Also, what a sunset tonight.

IMG_2083.JPGIMG_2084.JPG

 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Despite temps that crept above freezing today, the glacier pack is still solid enough to walk on in most spots without breaking through. Also, what a sunset tonight.

IMG_2083.JPGIMG_2084.JPG

 

Great pics MAG.  Your a lucky guy.  Should have yourself a white Christmas from the sounds of it.  Regardless, it beats the heck outta last year.  

Glad to see how the better trends are showing up on the models.  Anxious to see if we can finally get the ridge to finally pop out west and get some troughing here in the east.  Even if transient, sounds a little more promising than a couple days ago.

Hope we can all be looking out our windows and seeing the same thing soon.  

 

Nut

 

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Chirp chirp...

 

cricket cricket....

 

Ok warm guys....unpin the friggin voodoo dolls.  The turnaround to better times sounds like its gaining legs.  Lets start talking.

PNA looking better.  500mb pattern showing some western ridging and less SE ridge.  NAO trying (but still transient.  AO looking better.

Likely some pain left until it gets established, but the OP's and the ENS's as well as the different camps are starting to like each other a bit more.  

Lets do this.

Nut

 

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On 12/22/2016 at 8:55 PM, pasnownut said:

Yeah I kno how you roll.....

PAL

:)

I will deny it 'till the day I die...lol

Side note, I got my marching orders for my trip out after Christmas. I roll with a load to Douglas, GA Tuesday afternoon, delivering on Thursday. It's going to be in the 70's down there!!! :sizzle:

9 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol voyager and I are voodoo masters. 

Shhh...nobody's supposed to know... ;)

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10 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

image.png

Yeah....whats it gonna take to get that PNA to go pos...sheesh (I know the answer btw).  In the Mid atl forum, I asked for an -NAO, so I'll ask for a +PNA here.  that should do it.  Better times starting tomorrow. :rolleyes:

From what I saw on last nights runs, its transient.  Wont have much time to play today, but I'm going to dig a little more.  Hope i find gold, not coal.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Nut

 

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6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah....whats it gonna take to get that PNA to go pos...sheesh (I know the answer btw).  In the Mid atl forum, I asked for an -NAO, so I'll ask for a +PNA here.  that should do it.  Better times starting tomorrow. :rolleyes:

From what I saw on last nights runs, its transient.  Wont have much time to play today, but I'm going to dig a little more.  Hope i find gold, not coal.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Nut

 

Despite a significant 500 ridge and anomalous + heights in advance of the next system poised to cut way west of PA, CAD is going to limit what would be a pretty major warmup. Very strong 1044+ high settles in to our north and will slowly push away as the front associated with the Upper plains storm advances east. Thus, surface temperatures east of the Alleghenies are likely to be closer to normal until right when the frontal system arrives. 

GFS/Euro are quite at odds with the possible midweek system, GFS really doesn't have anything other than the ushering in of colder air for the latter half of the week while the Euro stirs up a system that has some coastal development and perhaps a cold enough airmass that the west and central maybe sees some snowfall with it. Really the long range in general has been pretty changeable. I approach the long range by looking for consistent themes or pattern setups vs any kind of finer details. So for instance if a big storm/arctic air mass/etc is consistently showing up in some form in the 6-10 day range on both models, I'll be fairly confident in saying look for x to happen in that timeframe. Really haven't seen much to hone in on. Right now you look at the 500mb at D10 for the  12z GFS and Euro and Euro has an insane over the top of the pole ridge stretching from Greenland to Alaska with off the charts anomalies (3-4+ st dev). GFS is way different with two distinct ones (Gulf of AK ridge and ridging in the North Atlantic off the NE and Canadian coast ). Honestly the GFS alignment is probably better, but the moral of the story is there's nothing to really lock on to other than of course.. lack of any kind of western ridge. I think we will be seasonably cold or perhaps a bit below average more often than not the next couple weeks but I remain somewhat pessimistic on a good storm track for our region. I'm especially pessimistic on a good one for the mid-atlantic region and I-95 corridor without some semblance of a western ridge unless the downstream blocking is just right. 

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18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Merry Christmas everyone!! Hope it's a wonderful day with family and friends :santa:

Same to you bud.

Aint ya gonna give us some weather treats?? ;)

From what I'm seeing, the New year may be ringin in w/ a new regime weather wise.  Doesnt translate to lotsa snow, but at least we are headed in a much better direction.  Encouraging news for sure.  

All the best and Merry Christmas!

 

Nut

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I hope everyone had a great Christmas, I got my present, the Dolphins made the playoffs!!! Oh yea, My oncologist said that he says I am 98% cured. I am still under treatment for lung cancer (non smoker) but no chemo or radiation at this time.

Maybe we will have more that 4.5 inches of snow here this year.

Finally Tom CLark of WNEP is retiring this weekend. Big changes at WNEP.

 

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Hope that everyone enjoyed their Christmas yesterday.

After some rain and the passage of the cold front tomorrow, next focus will be on a potential wave that moves through the region later Thursday that will serve to bring in more significant reinforcing cold air going into the weekend. Temps would probably be marginal in the south but potential is there for possibly a light snowfall. European has been the most robust with this, with a sharply negative tilted trough and coastal development starting early near the Delmarva. Coastal explodes and throttles interior New England. GFS is less excited but has the same general features with a negatively tilted trough diving down aided by some brief + heights in the western US. The NAM looks similar to the Euro but the SREF's aren't picking up on it too much yet (still pretty far into it's range).  Either way our area would likely see a wave of precip generated by frontal passage and negatively tilted trough. It would more than likely be a light event (general 1-3, T-1 far south), but could involve most of our region with a more robust Euro type outcome. 

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The EPS & GEFS have been ramping up snow amounts in the January 5-10th period.

In the short term, it will be interesting to see if we can pick up an inch or two of snow from the system this Thursday ?

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