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Central PA - February 2017

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Wmsptwx

Wmsptwx

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, canderson said:

Eh, I won't complain if we get shut out as long as the northern guys get some decent storms.

After last January we can't complain for a season.

You guys can keep them Lol(interest of tracking with no cleanup) though I wouldn't mind seeing our State College gang and pawatch have a nice storm, even if it means a mess Lol.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted

another good set of 12zs today.  Winter is looming closer gang.  Broad trough w/ SWFE's kinda look being the likely chances for some winter love next week.  Looking forward to killing the crickets and hearing the hounds of winter barking...

(the cricket part is a joke for all you cricket lives matter too folk :).)

 

Nut

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

WOOF WOOF - Really want to break the sleds out.

You and me both bud.  Got one in the garage now.  Gettin ready.  Snowblower prep as well.  Wasn't sure need em this year, but now I've changed my mind :).

Whether the pattern delivers or not, its DEFINITELY looking like one that has potential, and my all time fav's are the SWFE's where we get long duration light snows every couple days.  This one is looking like that....for now.  May only be a 10 day window (based on variablilty weve been seein in LR models, but I'll take it for now.....

Nut

 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
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Posted
2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

another good set of 12zs today.  Winter is looming closer gang.  Broad trough w/ SWFE's kinda look being the likely chances for some winter love next week.  Looking forward to killing the crickets and hearing the hounds of winter barking...

(the cricket part is a joke for all you cricket lives matter too folk :).)

 

Nut

 

We will likely go through another period of moderation and a cutter early next week but things are really starting to look really good for a cold pattern to envelope the entire US as we go into the 6-10 day range and perhaps beyond that. Major reversals of the EPO/WPO forecast due to the progged major north Pac/AK ridging would ensure an arctic source region to the airmass that dumps into the US. That alone wouldn't help our storm track issues as the continued raging -PNA (western trough) would suggest a cold air dump would be weighted toward the western half of the country and leave the eastern half vulnerable to height rises and a continuation of the general theme we've had so far. We need blocking support from the NAO in this setup and it appears that we may finally get it to some degree, depending on the model.

I'm using today's 12z guidance with this discussion.. Today's 12z Euro by the end of it's range really had a heck of a setup with very highly anomalous ridging over western AK as well as over Greenland.. with a 50/50 low underneath the blocking Greenland ridge. That setup is the kind we need to suppress the storm track in the east with a highly negative PNA. The Euro run was actually too much of a good thing for our area, with too much of a supressed storm track. The GFS isn't as blocky as the Euro on the NAO side (no 50/50 either) with the North Atlantic ridging more east based. Still has kind of the same result with the 6-10 range but perhaps be more apt to revert back to pushing heights back up in the east with any more energy that goes into the west after D10. The alignment's important too, we actually have the high heights in the north atlantic (but not really into Greenland) early next week around the time of the probable cutting system but the north Pac/AK ridge and western trough at that point is oriented in such a manner that it allows the heights in the east to rise easily. Lots of things to consider, and a lot of lead time too. I would certainly look for more overrunning type events or maybe a lower latitude miller B kind of ordeal over bigger coastals/highly amplified storms in general if we get the full blown US trough and cold air that the models are advertising. Guess what we briefly have in place for the New England coastal that's supposed to form tomorrow? Western ridging.. although not an overly sharp or amplified one.. which is why this system won't explode until its past our latitude, despite the negative trough.

We shall see, I'm not particularly convinced that we end up in a pattern that culminates in a storm track that is suppressed enough to have us dry and put down frozen in the southeast so quickly when we haven't even kept much of anything out of the lakes so far this winter. A compromise would put us in a pretty good position. One thing is for sure, there is now plenty of significant cold air to be had on our side of the hemisphere when the pattern allows it to get into the east. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

We will likely go through another period of moderation and a cutter early next week but things are really starting to look really good for a cold pattern to envelope the entire US as we go into the 6-10 day range and perhaps beyond that. Major reversals of the EPO/WPO forecast due to the progged major north Pac/AK ridging would ensure an arctic source region to the airmass that dumps into the US. That alone wouldn't help our storm track issues as the continued raging -PNA (western trough) would suggest a cold air dump would be weighted toward the western half of the country and leave the eastern half vulnerable to height rises and a continuation of the general theme we've had so far. We need blocking support from the NAO in this setup and it appears that we may finally get it to some degree, depending on the model.

I'm using today's 12z guidance with this discussion.. Today's 12z Euro by the end of it's range really had a heck of a setup with very highly anomalous ridging over western AK as well as over Greenland.. with a 50/50 low underneath the blocking Greenland ridge. That setup is the kind we need to suppress the storm track in the east with a highly negative PNA. The Euro run was actually too much of a good thing for our area, with too much of a supressed storm track. The GFS isn't as blocky as the Euro on the NAO side (no 50/50 either) with the North Atlantic ridging more east based. Still has kind of the same result with the 6-10 range but perhaps be more apt to revert back to pushing heights back up in the east with any more energy that goes into the west after D10. The alignment's important too, we actually have the high heights in the north atlantic (but not really into Greenland) early next week around the time of the probable cutting system but the north Pac/AK ridge and western trough at that point is oriented in such a manner that it allows the heights in the east to rise easily. Lots of things to consider, and a lot of lead time too. I would certainly look for more overrunning type events or maybe a lower latitude miller B kind of ordeal over bigger coastals/highly amplified storms in general if we get the full blown US trough and cold air that the models are advertising. Guess what we briefly have in place for the New England coastal that's supposed to form tomorrow? Western ridging.. although not an overly sharp or amplified one.. which is why this system won't explode until its past our latitude, despite the negative trough.

We shall see, I'm not particularly convinced that we end up in a pattern that culminates in a storm track that is suppressed enough to have us dry and put down frozen in the southeast so quickly when we haven't even kept much of anything out of the lakes so far this winter. A compromise would put us in a pretty good position. One thing is for sure, there is now plenty of significant cold air to be had on our side of the hemisphere when the pattern allows it to get into the east. 

Yeah...this is what I was alluding to in just a bit more detail....

What he said.....:P.

Hoping the cutter as shown for early next week (on the 12z's) doesn't wipe out any "groundwork" from tomorrow or this weekend.

Looking forward to tracking.....

 

Nut

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