2001kx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: awesome to see the surprise snow. Looks like enough to clean some sled carbs out eh? I know I would........ but I'm desperate. Nut Yep will be doing that later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 That's cool you guys got into those northern bands. Parts of the NE have been hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Yeah we lucked out..I havent even seen any snow reports yet. Been busy plowing and cleaning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Surprise squall here has just left a fresh coating, including some roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 One of the most intense squalls I have seen in recent years just went through the Scranton metro. Put down a quick 1" to 1".5 inches. White out for like 30 minutes. Cars are everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I can't believe we have 0.0 chatter in here about the winter storm threat at the end of next week ! The Euro Op at 12 z hit the LSV with 11 inches of snow by next Saturday. The ensembles also advertise a winter storm for us between next Friday to Sunday. The pattern looks ripe for a good storm for our region. Here is to a great week of tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I can't believe we have 0.0 chatter in here about the winter storm threat at the end of next week ! The Euro Op at 12 z hit the LSV with 11 inches of snow by next Saturday. The ensembles also advertise a winter storm for us between next Friday to Sunday. The pattern looks ripe for a good storm for our region. Here is to a great week of tracking! I'm here. I think the voodoo dolls are scaring em away!!! to add to your synopsis, it also looking like the longer term may have less relaxation and reload sooner. wouldnt that be awesome? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 20 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I can't believe we have 0.0 chatter in here about the winter storm threat at the end of next week ! The Euro Op at 12 z hit the LSV with 11 inches of snow by next Saturday. The ensembles also advertise a winter storm for us between next Friday to Sunday. The pattern looks ripe for a good storm for our region. Here is to a great week of tracking! I'm definitely watching that period for storm potential, but models are all over the place. Last night's Euro followed that up with hardly anything system wise from either of the waves coming out and today's only had a streak of light snow crossing the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. 12z GFS had just about nothing like last nights European. Canadian runs a light snow event through PA Friday. I like the period for a potential winter event coming across the country in some form but need to see some run to run model continuity. Really don't think whatever it ends up being is going to be huge, as the flow across the country looks quite progressive... but if we can eject a half decent shortwave I think there's a nice swath of moderate snowfall to be had for somewhere. Conversely, if the energy comes out in sheared out pieces.. we're gonna end up with what the GFS and Euro currently has. One thing's for sure, after our brief warmup early in the week it's gonna be quite cold from Wed on for at least several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/30/2016 at 9:10 AM, 2001kx said: Yeah we lucked out..I havent even seen any snow reports yet. Been busy plowing and cleaning up. We ended up with another 1.5" early yesterday morning here that was apparently pretty localized, as you would get about halfway to Altoona and there was nothing on the ground. I think you've def been the winner of the C-PA forum thus far. The LES snowbands have seemed to like that Dubois-Clearfield-Snow Shoe part of the I-80 corridor so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It appears as if it's time to begin pulling model runs north for the potential event this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 33 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: It appears as if it's time to begin pulling model runs north for the potential event this coming weekend. Seems like more and more this is like an 80s winter. More snow the farther you went north and west in PA, plus bigger storms across southern Virginia and the Carolinas. That seemed to happen a lot when I was growing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 That's what I predicted, yay me! Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 While we freeze this weekend in dry conditions, VA will get a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Maybe we should head to Ocean City Maryland, ride it out in the Greene Turtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 That seems to be less rare last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Virginia Beach may be the big winner. This isn't going to be our year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Maybe we should head to Ocean City Maryland, ride it out in the Greene Turtle. I know a few other places that have better food and beer selections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I have a feeling MDT won't see more than 1" snow by the end of January. Future doesn't look good for us here whatsoever. Which is fine with me, it still looks quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I know a few other places that have better food and beer selections you had me at beer 12 minutes ago, canderson said: I have a feeling MDT won't see more than 1" snow by the end of January. Future doesn't look good for us here whatsoever. Which is fine with me, it still looks quite cold. honestly, i'm ok with it too right now. But if something came along i'm sure i'd get pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, sauss06 said: you had me at beer honestly, i'm ok with it too right now. But if something came along i'm sure i'd get pumped. Same here, ok with no snow but certainly will be all in once a warning criteria storm shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I know this is off topic, tough chit - If you don't have smoke detectors, go get them today. - If you have them and haven't done so lately, replace the batteries. - If your house catches fire, GET OUT AND STAY OUT. That is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Did you work the fire that killed that man this morning? :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Did you work the fire that killed that man this morning? :/ unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Very sorry to hear that. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 50 minutes ago, sauss06 said: unfortunately. Sorry to hear that Sauss. Sincere thanks to you and all the other brave men who run into extreme danger to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 hours ago, canderson said: I have a feeling MDT won't see more than 1" snow by the end of January. Future doesn't look good for us here whatsoever. Which is fine with me, it still looks quite cold. I think our best shot at any snow this week is starting to look like it'll come later Thursday from the first wave that comes out prior to the bigger second system. This would be a very weak system that would probably only deliver light snowfall. However, a swath of just a tenth or so of precip could equate to a general 1-2" given the very cold airmass that will be in place (high ratios). Positioning of the QPF field differs on the models. GFS/Canadian look a little bit lower, running most of the light precip just south of the PA border. European is broad with the light QPF, covering all of PA. NAM favors southern PA with the SREF mean tracking best QPF across PA for a swath of 1-3". Should note SREF is a bit all over the spectrum with individual members.. as is expected since it's a bit far out for it's effective range. There is a pretty solid signal in the plumes though for about inch or so in most of the stations in our subforum. Right now I would probably lean towards mainly the southern half of PA maybe seeing this potential swath of light snow. Highly doubtful the potential second system impacts our area, there's just too much progression in the pattern and not enough amplification via the NAO or western US ridging. We briefly do see a western 500mb ridge setup for this system but it's not highly amplified. This would suggest the wave stays pretty flat and be offshore when it does strengthen and turn up. Given the presence of the very cold airmass this week across most of the country, the storm track will be much further south as well. I think the DC and south portion of the Mid-Atlantic forum is still in play for snow as this could certainly trend north in time.. but I would be highly surprised if it did enough to involve any part of our subforum. I don't really think this system is going to have a very high top end (probably something like 4-8"), but it could fall in a region far enough south that it's a pretty high impact event.. such as southern Va and/or the Carolinas. Beyond that, it looks like the same old thing again. Heights in the east increase in response to another trough dumping into the west, we moderate, the next system cuts up into the upper midwest/lakes and we mix/rain again since we don't have any western based -NAO blocking through Greenland to help force heights down in the east. This theme will likely continue unless we see some wholesale pattern changes such as a reversal of the dominant -PNA, and/or the aforementioned -NAO blocking. Gonna put up a few select Euro 500mb maps, hopefully won't get in any trouble.. but wanted to illustrate the problem. 30 hr, highly anomalous broad ridging from the Aleutians into the Gulf of AK and NW Canada, some ridging in the NW Atlantic, dumps very cold air over most of the Lower 48. 114hr major ridge retros to the Bering Strait, significant 500 low off the NW coast drives up heights enough for brief western ridge/eastern trough and associated potential coastal. High heights in the north Atlantic but no major blocking ridge into Greenland which would imply a progressive exit to the coastal low and eastern trough. 180hr ridge over AK, closed low progresses into the NW US helping carve out another western trough and pushes the ridging east. High heights over the North Atlantic but no ridging over the NW Atlantic or Greenland allowing the system in this timeframe to cut well west of PA. You can also see how the active storm pattern for the West coast continues as the storm track is forced underneath the AK ridge (below normal heights in the central Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yea those signals are quite terrible if you want to see snow in PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 pretty mild this morning, i guess we'll drop as the day goes. i know its winter and we'd like some snow, but i'm glad we are getting some rain anyhow, i believe we are still in a deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 hours ago, sauss06 said: pretty mild this morning, i guess we'll drop as the day goes. i know its winter and we'd like some snow, but i'm glad we are getting some rain anyhow, i believe we are still in a deficit. Yea it's still needed, especially in the Sus Valley where D1 drought conditions still exist as of last Thursday. It's even drier along the I-84 corridor into southern New England (D2-D3). Speaking of people who need rain, the real winners in this winter's pattern thus far has been most of the West Coast..who have benefitting from an active storm pattern and will continue to do so. Check out the next 7 days, a 19.1" max in the Sierras.. that's gotta be like a decade's worth of half decent DC winters. While we're talking QPF, I might as well put up the Day 1-2 QPF. WPC has a swath of .1-.25" across southern Penn with tomorrow evening's weak system. I wouldn't be surprised if places like Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, etc manages an inch from this. Could be somewhat of an overachiever via ratios if we end up with a solid swath of snowfall across the state. Models showing some 700mb lift (not a lot) in the southern tier which with the airmass in place falls in the middle of the best snow growth temps (between -10 to -20ºC). Downsloping off the Alleghenies could be an issue though in the south central and it's notable on most of the QPF outputs on models. Either way, the most anything's really putting out is a tenth to maybe two tenths at most, so we would need ratios to help most get anything more than a general T-1". Day 1-2 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 CTP is calling for 1-2 inches of snow in the LSV tomorrow night. Most of the short range models are in that range, but we could end up with 2-3 inches due to good ratios. Whatever we end up getting, it will stick around until early next week with the frigid temps that are on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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