Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[yoda]

Wasn't there a storm a little while ago that the GGEM/RGEM had a ice to rain scenario and we ended up getting a good amount of ice... it was a night to day storm... pretty sure it was either in Jan/Feb within the past 5 years

[AmericanWxFreak]

do we get a 18z RGEM? and when people refer to the third NAM is that the DGEX replacement that runs at 3km?

[BTRWx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Of course the 2 other nam brothers back off on precip through 15z. lol. Chasing ghosts. 

In these scenarios, the higher resolution runs almost always verify more often.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Wasn't there a storm a little while ago that the GGEM/RGEM had a ice to rain scenario and we ended up getting a good amount of ice... it was a night to day storm... pretty sure it was either in Jan/Feb within the past 5 years

feb 2014? lost power with that one. was definitely a northern areas storm though. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

do we get a 18z RGEM? and when people refer to the third NAM is that the DGEX replacement that runs at 3km?

Yes we do have a 18z RGEM

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Wasn't there a storm a little while ago that the GGEM/RGEM had a ice to rain scenario and we ended up getting a good amount of ice... it was a night to day storm... pretty sure it was either in Jan/Feb within the past 5 years

Feb 2014 I believe.  I volunteer with a fire department in Carroll County and we got slammed with wires, wrecks, chimney fires and transformer fires.  Parts of Manchester, Lineboro, Pleasant Valley, Thurmont and Parkton got nearly an inch of ice.  Carroll County 911 received 6 times their daily call volume in under 6 hours I believe.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

feb 2014? lost power with that one. was definitely a northern areas storm though. 

I think that was the year... nice recall

ETA: or in Jan as Eskimo posted above

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think that was the year... nice recall

ETA: or in Jan as Eskimo posted above

it was our first winter in Parkton, 70 inches of snow and a nasty ice storm. Hard to forget  

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

In these scenarios, the higher resolution runs almost always verify more often.

 

     Yes, I think it's telling that the operational NAM nest (4 km), the parallel NAM nest (3 km), and the HRRR all show limited precip across DC Metro through mid-morning.   That said, even a little bit of freezing rain with the cold surfaces will cause problems.

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Of course the 2 other nam brothers back off on precip through 15z. lol. Chasing ghosts. 

really? 3km still looks nasty IMBY. 

[Eskimo Joe]

If we had a staunch high over Quebec and a bit of blocking to back it up, this would probably be a setup for a significant ice storm.

[PaEasternWX]

I don't know if you guys noticed the same thing but for me high temperature busted. Supposed to get up to 26 as of the forecast and only 23.5 now. Maybe that is a signal for more ice then expected.

[BTRWx]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

 

     Yes, I think it's telling that the operational NAM nest (4 km), the parallel NAM nest (3 km), and the HRRR all show limited precip across DC Metro through mid-morning.   That said, even a little bit of freezing rain with the cold surfaces will cause problems.

True, and the time of day/night is favorable for least impacts for most people with the exception of the lesser of my generation.  Can you request the fire nest to run? lol

[yoda]

Just now, high risk said:

 

     Yes, I think it's telling that the operational NAM nest (4 km), the parallel NAM nest (3 km), and the HRRR all show limited precip across DC Metro through mid-morning.   That said, even a little bit of freezing rain with the cold surfaces will cause problems.

How much weight do you put on the RGEM being an outlier but being consistent the past few runs?

[mappy]

3km NAM doesn't have my area hitting freezing until 17z. .5 qpf has fallen before then 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

3km NAM doesn't have my area hitting freezing until 17z. .5 qpf has fallen before then 

3k NAM would be a legit emergency, IMO 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

really? 3km still looks nasty IMBY. 

Backed off south of I70. I only post irt to my yard. lol

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

really? 3km still looks nasty IMBY. 

The cutoff is severe just south of Baltimore

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

3km NAM doesn't have my area hitting freezing until 17z. .5 qpf has fallen before then 

 

    yeah, pretty spectacular gradient between DC and the Mason-Dixon line.

     

[Bob Chill]

Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

The cutoff is severe just south of Baltimore

The cutoff is pretty close the subforum redistricting lines. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Backed off south of I70. I only post irt to my yard. lol

dammit bob, think of me for a change. come on.  

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

3k NAM would be a legit emergency, IMO 

the whole northern tier of counties would be quite icy

[mappy]

RIP Thurmont/Emmitsburg

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

RIP Thurmont/Emmitsburg

That's a verrrry interesting looking precip map. I do wonder if that'll even come close to verifying. Regardless - looks pretty icy for you!

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

RIP Thurmont

The Mounties are quite resilient. A little ice is no big deal to them.

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

That's a verrrry interesting looking precip map. I do wonder if that'll even come close to verifying. Regardless - looks pretty icy for you!

if it's correct. GFS wasn't nearly as gung-ho on the precip/ice amounts. 

[DC2Winston]

What are the odds for even a little snow TV in the district at this point?

I'd settle for a quick trace before the flip with ground frozen.  Immediate stickage...

[PhineasC]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

3k NAM would be a legit emergency, IMO 

LOL

[BTRWx]

Classic flip the script

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/809864843390058497/photo/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=809864843390058497

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

What are the odds for even a little snow TV in the district at this point?

I'd settle for a quick trace before the flip with ground frozen.  Immediate stickage...

Having lived in the region for 20 years under this type scenario I 'd say almost zero...it wiill be 4 am and stilll no precipitation south of BWI don't care what the RGEM says...this is a N MD and north show