Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[WhiteoutMD]

The start time I think is the biggest question I have. The earlier it starts the better we all do.  Whats everyone's feeling on that part of this?  I think is starts at 3-5 am metro dc. W

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WhiteoutMD said:

The start time I think is the biggest question I have. The earlier it starts the better we all do.  Whats everyone's feeling on that part of this?  I think is starts at 3-5 am metro dc. W

Warm air advection waits for no man.  Thinking it starts 12 am - 3 am.  Sneaky couple hours of all snow for everyone before it flips.  

[yoda]

12z RGEM at 15z is still freezing rain at DCA

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

The start time I think is the biggest question I have. The earlier it starts the better we all do.  Whats everyone's feeling on that part of this?  I think is starts at 3-5 am metro dc. W

Last I saw, LWX was going for very late tonight or pre-dawn, so yeah, I guess 3-5AM-ish.

As a side note, check out the wide expanse of warnings/advisories/watches on the NWS page right now, they cover from about Idaho to the East Coast!

[Ji]

the RGEm is such a severe outlier..its hard to take seriously

[H2O]

RGEM on its own as far as precip for sure

[Ji]

Just now, H2O said:

RGEM on its own as far as precip for sure

meanwhile the NAM3k shows no precipitation for our area. Like zero

[mappy]

am i the only one a little worried about that ice? yes, i know it will warm up and everything goes drip drip drip, but that's some high end frza totals. 

[yoda]

12z RGEM meteogram asks if you like power

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

The start time I think is the biggest question I have. The earlier it starts the better we all do.  Whats everyone's feeling on that part of this?  I think is starts at 3-5 am metro dc. W

My question is when does it end.  I'm actually thinking we might get a dry afternoon?  And mild?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, yoda said:

12z RGEM meteogram asks if you like power

 

Exactly why we don't cheer for ice.

[Ji]

you would of thought that the RGEM would fold by now but its gettting wetter. Weird

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z RGEM meteogram asks if you like power

 

Ice Ice baby

3mm (around 1 inch) snow and around 15mm (around 0.6") freezing rain

[H2O]

Well crud.  the GFS is wetter @30 compared to 6z

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

you would of thought that the RGEM would fold by now but its gettting wetter. Weird

GFS shifted south a little bit. Especially with the heavier stuff to our north. But not even close to the RGEM. Normally I would toss the RGEM in a split second but the fact that it keeps trending wetter at very short range is not normally how the RGEM busts. 

If you compare the 3k (or any nam) to 6z, all shifted the heaviest axis south. 

[mitchnick]

Gfs ses to be pretty wet, but not very white

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS shifted south a little bit. Especially with the heavier stuff to our north. But not even close to the RGEM. Normally I would toss the RGEM in a split second but the fact that it keeps trending wetter at very short range is not normally how the RGEM busts. 

If you compare the 3k (or any nam) to 6z, all shifted the heaviest axis south. 

Perhaps recognizing the depth of teh cold air?

And yes, RGEM is a bit worrisome

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Exactly why we don't cheer for ice.

I despise ice. Luckily I don't get much of it here. Surface cold scours out quick in most cases unless there is a legit high and CAD.

For this event its pretty clear there will be little to no snow anywhere, so freezing rain is the main issue. Places up in N MD especially could see a few hours of icing before low level temps rise, but in this type of set up its not likely to be a prolonged icing.

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z RGEM meteogram asks if you like power

 

Bring.It.On.  I love ice storms.  Don't care if I lose power, etc.

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I despise ice. Luckily I don't get much of it here. Surface cold scours out quick in most cases unless there is a legit high and CAD.

For this event its pretty clear there will be little to no snow anywhere, so freezing rain is the main issue. Places up in N MD especially could see a few hours of icing before low level temps rise, but in this type of set up its not likely to be a prolonged icing.

ice keeps drinks cold.  love ice

[Herb@MAWS]

Worst fears are being realized.  It was overcast for a while but sun is burning thru the overcast now, allowing temps to slowly rise.  This seems to happen a lot with these set-ups (overcast. then back to sun).  It'll be U20's to 30 by day's end at this rate, and then little decrease of temps by the time the real overcast spreads over us.

Every time I look at thermometer now, it's going up a few tenths of a degree.  (yeah, I know: then stop looking at thermometer!)

19.1 at 10:45 after morning low of 12.  Sun is out again 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

ice keeps drinks cold.  love ice

I put ice in my beer sometimes 

[H2O]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I put ice in my beer sometimes 

OMG.  This might be the worst thing i have heard all winter.  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I put ice in my beer sometimes 

Woah woah woah... party foul

[CAPE]

Just now, H2O said:

OMG.  This might be the worst thing i have heard all winter.  

I only do it for really big stouts, like Dogfish Head World Wide.  Made with a ton of barley and 18% abv. It needs to be cut a bit.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I put ice in my beer sometimes 

 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Woah woah woah... party foul

 

I've been known to put a couple of ice cubes in a glass of white wine upon occasion! 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I only do it for really big stouts, like Dogfish Head World Wide.  Made with a ton of barley and 18% abv. It needs to be cut a bit.

Serious heresy.  

[H2O]

its like I don't know any of you people anymore.  next you say you put ice in your chocolate milk

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

 

I've been known to put a couple of ice cubes in a glass of white wine upon occasion! 

yeah....but thats NOT beer :).

although I dont really drink the heavy stuff, so maybe my opinion is invalid anyways.

Nut

 

[CAPE]

Just now, H2O said:

its like I don't know any of you people anymore.  next you say you put ice in your chocolate milk

red wine?