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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's either QPF concerns or temp concerns. I'll let you figure out what region is what. :lol: 

Everyone has both concerns at some point in the winter lol.

You are mainly talking a certain type of storm haha, east coast lows.

SWFE are the best as it's very straight forward mostly.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah ...Jerry (or whom ever it was that wrote about it...) I'm seeing the last two or three runs of the Euro trying to relax the flow overall, ...particularly where the interface of the polar westerlies kisses the sub-tropical atmosphere of the deep south.

No wonder, the Euro spins up a 20 " blue monster ... It's not deterministic by any sane approach; it is however symptomatic of a powder keg of potential.  The ultra speedy, compressed flow regime we've suffered (for lack of better word) as winter enthusiasts, it caps storm system intensity and growth potential.  Shearing is statically at far less than a premium, and for other complex reasons inappropriate to portable-device attention span era ...together, mean that storms like the Plains today are rarefied (more so than not..).  But there is a kind of storm budget that needs to be spent - if you will.  ..so.  Anyway, I maintain that a goodly % of the energy spent in the forum 'universe' is pretty much wasted until that the gradient relaxes enough for Norwegian-model cyclone evolution to take place without being smeared out by velocity.

Until then... we may get luck on Thursday... or the like.  So not entirely a waste either....

It's not crippling pattern so long as the EPO succeeds in being negative from time to time. But it sure is a pain in the ass - ha!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

wow, could that MJO be any more dead? 

...Plus, we had a cat 4 typhoon moving smartly west through the sw Pac Basin, showing no signs of recurving any latent heat fluxes into the NP at the one time of the year where that could help?  egh - guess we can count out trop forcing for now, huh -

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leo1000

leo1000

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow, could that MJO be any more dead? 

...Plus, we had a cat 4 typhoon moving smartly west through the sw Pac Basin, showing no signs of recurving any latent heat fluxes into the NP at the one time of the year where that could help?  egh - guess we can count out trop forcing for now, huh -

Yeah not good about to throw in the towel on Winter!. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

I mean look nothing is going in our favor this year. No recurving typhoon, the NAO goes back positive again it looks like according to the 00UTC indexes. On top of that no positive PNA. The EPO also shows going back to positive. 

I know...to top it all off, half of all of the years in recorded history have seen more snow thus far.

The humanity....

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Haha I know. I'm definitely mores QPF Queen over a temperature worrier.

I've been swinging by over the holiday's run up and since for some morbid curiosity ...so take this with a grain of salt (not assault :) )

but... honestly, the motivators for all that QPF vs temperature ... heh.  As someone who's been around for a number of years, I know that this particular outlet for social media is really a bastion for those with a very particular sort of non-harmful codependency for climate and weather.  I am not sure how much either of those parameters has much to do with said motivation for discussing them.  They seem more like ... "scapegoats" if you will.

It's actually a fascinating fields, "climate psychology".  I read recently that Pschology in general has successfully, more importantly, scientifically identified a counter S.A.D. condition. It has to with people that actually 'feel' something similar to those that suffer the standard form of Seasonal Affected Disorder, but for those it is during times when the weather is quite objectively considered fair that bothers them the most. They are the minority, but it was some 10 % ...Now, I'm not a shrink, nor would I want to ever be one, but the paper reads ...(sorry to say) pretty damn smack spot on as a description that applies here. And, guides the tenor we observe in the themes of contributors, here.  Everytime I've brought this up though... despite never impugning a particular person, or even hinting at one individual, this creates a windstorm of resistance/hate ... so - heh - that doesn't take a rocket scientist either.

It's not a huge leap; just imagine we are getting pounded by nickle and dime snow events, with say one or two more big juggernauts in the charts, having already successfully verified at least one (I know ...seemingly impossible to envision such a winter success story but ... they do happen from time to time).  Now, with that in mind, imagine what the posting content would be?

I'm willing to bet no one would even have QPF and temperature even in their mind's eyes... 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

Yeah not good about to throw in the towel on Winter!. 

I'm assuming you're being sarcastic :o

yeah ...no, just for the time being that is..  "It can change" doesn't offer much consolation but it...during these sort of unpleasant times, we do at all times know that change is inevitable. It's just a matter of when...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Fwiw - CPC/NCEP's take on the MJO this week..

The CPC velocity potential index suggests possible MJO activity in the far West
Pacific, while the RMM index has been low amplitude with a tendency towards a
solution generally in Phase 5/6.

Ongoing co-located Kelvin wave activity and La Niña contributions to the tropical
circulation introduce further uncertainty in discerning any potential MJO
presence.

Dynamical model forecasts of the RMM index generally bring the intraseasonal
signal westward initially, before eastward propagation of a potential MJO event
that appears to be of marginal amplitude and towards the faster end of the
phase speed spectrum.

Some enhancement of the convective signal is possible across the Western
Pacific in the next two weeks, although interference with the low frequency
state, in addition to the forecast weak amplitude and high phase speed of the
potential MJO, limit confidence in the extent and magnitude of the response.  
Extratropical impacts are not anticipated at this time.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

I am sorry for being a whiny weenie. I got to learn to be patient. 

That CPC discussion is correct. There has been a low frequency standing wave signal in the WPAC. It's why we haven't blow torched despite how the models looked two weeks ago. I'm not able to check the diagnostics at the moment, but I caution the RMM plots. They can be noisy and influenced by other factors causing a false sense of where the wave is, as well as the behavior of it. Also, the models are trying for some sort of a -NAO it seems. However, I still caution that as the overall atmosphere seems to want more of a +NAO look. The -NAO seemed to be a response from the storm  next week.

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