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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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I mean look nothing is going in our favor this year. No recurving typhoon, the NAO goes back positive again it looks like according to the 00UTC indexes. On top of that no positive PNA. The EPO also shows going back to positive. 

Dude were you around in winter 14'-15'? or were you asleep...We had 10cms up to the 27th of January and 333cms from the 28th to may...lol. It ain't over until it's over.

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11 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Dude were you around in winter 14'-15'? or were you asleep...We had 10cms up to the 27th of January and 333cms from the 28th to may...lol. It ain't over until it's over.

Well said. '12-'13 was a great back-halfer too. Both winters featured their share of discussion concerning futility records prior. 

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28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

They live in new glasgow ns.  Nao isnt a big worry up there.  Big west negative nao might be the worst configuration there in fact.

I thought it was the other way around with the east based NAO. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html

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43 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Dude were you around in winter 14'-15'? or were you asleep...We had 10cms up to the 27th of January and 333cms from the 28th to may...lol. It ain't over until it's over.

I thought that was the winter of 15'-16'?. Yes we have a ton of snow that time. Just hoping we might get something similar. 

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8 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

I thought it was the other way around with the east based NAO. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html

I think you want weak east based overall...much like st. Johns.  New glasgow shouldnt be that dependent on the nao state being far north and east. 

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I know most of the focus is on Thursday, but the pattern remains interesting.  Light snow again up here Saturday night, and then it seems like a great lakes storm that goes from the Southern Plains to the northern lakes, but then comes ENE.  We have high pressure in place so I wonder how long we can hold off the warm air - maybe another mixed event?  And then after that I'm guessing the same old pattern with shots of cold, snow storms and mixed storms, brief warm-ups etc.  A question for me is whether the bomb on Friday does anything to help the NAO/

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10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I know most of the focus is on Thursday, but the pattern remains interesting.  Light snow again up here Saturday night, and then it seems like a great lakes storm that goes from the Southern Plains to the northern lakes, but then comes ENE.  We have high pressure in place so I wonder how long we can hold off the warm air - maybe another mixed event?  And then after that I'm guessing the same old pattern with shots of cold, snow storms and mixed storms, brief warm-ups etc.  A question for me is whether the bomb on Friday does anything to help the NAO/

It tries to pump up ridging there. Probably temporary, but we'll need help as that next deal tries to go warm on us. Maybe we can get more of an overrunning. After the 5th it looks much better overall, especially SNE.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It tries to pump up ridging there. Probably temporary, but we'll need help as that next deal tries to go warm on us. Maybe we can get more of an overrunning. After the 5th it looks much better overall, especially SNE.

does that mean a greater chance of coastal lows/storm wise, I think that's what I'm trying to say!

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It tries to pump up ridging there. Probably temporary, but we'll need help as that next deal tries to go warm on us. Maybe we can get more of an overrunning. After the 5th it looks much better overall, especially SNE.

 Thanks for answering that Scott. That is what I was hoping as I looked at that storm in the upper Midwest starting to cut more east then north. Maybe it is overriding with a high holding its position and maybe there's even secondary redevelopment? Another words perhaps a swfe with a little secondary 

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8 minutes ago, 512high said:

does that mean a greater chance of coastal lows/storm wise, I think that's what I'm trying to say!

It would certainly help, but you can still get mild events. The one next week may get ugly in SNE. Maybe more snow or ice up north...but that's way out there....lets get through Friday first.

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7 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It looks like after January 5th looks to bring snow to the coastline as major dumpage of cold arctic takes place as a strong shortwave looks to travel towards the central US.

Yea we get a -EPO/-NAO double block, which brings down some really cold air. Super low heights from coast to coast with the ridge bridge. Still seeing a bit of a -PNA so it may be overrunning/SWFEs and clippers rather than coastals, but they should run into a nice cold airmass.

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