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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sipprell with snow and wind damage impacts Sun nite/ Mon!!

  


Could be contending with winter weather hazards in the form of snow.
Higher confidence over N/W portions of CT and MA at this time. As to
damaging winds, hazards seem more likely given the system undergoing
occlusion beneath a negative-tilted trough, drawing down colder air
rearward allowing for steep lapse rates possibly as high as H5-7.
Would be looking at all of S New England with regards to impacts.

 At present, I'd be more inclined to think the higher elevations (i.e., higher than I) should be concerned about snow.  Lower down here I'm much more bearish.  The wind looks like a given though.

I'm pretty bummed I'll miss it as I'll be in Maine where I anticipate things will be pretty benign on both elements. But, I'll be back for the rain on Thanksgiving.

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S&P

S&P

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

You must not like good chicken wings, real chicken wings. Not ones that are breaded with a cup of sauce on the side you guys in New England call wings. You must not like beef on weck sandwiches (roast beef on a kimmelweck roll). You must not have tried or even heard of a thing called sponge candy, and no it's not that sea salt- chocolate covered crap that they sell down in Newport or Cape Cod. You must not be Polish or like Polish food because you haven't had polish food until you come to Buffalo.You must not like beer because Buffalo is a drinking town with a sports problem. How do you think all us Bills fans can survive 16 (going on 17) years of no playoffs and almost 90" of snow in 3 days? And don't even get me started on the Sabres. All bullcrap aside Buffalo really is an awesome town. I grew up here and lived here for 20 years and couldn't wait to get the hell out and moved away. I lived in Rhode Island (which is a beautiful place btw) for 2 years while also traveling all over the country for work and visiting different cities. Every city has its good and bad and its own things that make it special and unique but to me none of them had what Buffalo had. We're a hard working, blue collar, extremely caring town. Don't get me wrong the city definitely has its rough spots, spots you wouldn't even want to drive through during the middle of the day, but the city has really built itself up a lot in the last 5-7 years (especially in the last 2-3 years). There's a great area downtown called canalside where there are several different attractions including an old naval ship and submarine that you can take a tour of, a boat tour of part of the Niagara River, Lake Erie, and the Erie Canal, a new huge state of the art center with 2 ice hockey rinks, training facility, and numerous stores. There's also several great resturaunts and pubs along with concession stands and other vendors. We have free concerts every Thursday night in he summer time here with the Lake Erie sunset in the background  (one of the only cities not on the West coast to be able to watch the sunset over water). We have enough awesome food trucks that line up during events to feed the entire US Army. We have some of the shortest commute times to and from work in the country and you'll hardly ever see a traffic jam. We have some of the most affordable housing in he country as well. Not many places can you buy a 4 bed 2 bath nicely remodeled 2000 sqft house for under $200,000. Oh and did I mention we average 100" of snow a year?! And that's just in Buffalo proper. Go literally 10-15 miles south and that average nearly doubles. Hamburg, NY just 9 miles south of Buffalo saw over 210" just a couple seasons ago (over 80" of that fell in 3 days in November!!). I could go on and on about the good things about Buffalo that no ones sees or knows and I can see why people who haven't been here ever or in the last few years can listen and buy into all the trash talk that the city gets, but come take a trip up here sometime and I promise you would be shocked at how much this city really has to offer. 

How much for sex toys?

 

anyway .91 in the bucket here yesterday

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

it's an interesting period of time between ThxG and the following Tuesday, as a subset to the general (and still persisting signal/idea) theme that the month ends differently - relative to climatology - than it began.  

unfortunately there's very little or no confidence what form(s) that will take ... (heh, when is that not the case for a D9+ scenario - hello).  but more so than usual, there is just a morass of moving parts in that time frame. we have diving and rising indexes galore. i would say, however, that the persistent deep -NAO that is present in the GEFs might be encouraging for holiday spirit (i got friends and family that like the snow before xmass - just sayn'), but that's about all.  how about the 00z oper. GFS with a -3SD closed -NAO couplet s of LI, trundling about for two.5 days later after thanks giggedy?   that's a quagmire, huh - 

the Euro Jedi master is having difficulty foreseeing details/structure with much continuity for that system earlier on, this next Sunday-early Tuesday... nooorrrmally i wouldn't be too impressed with those under-belly return flow set ups; they're like that mean looking barking dog in the charts but then nuzzle their muzzles for petting when they get to you.  however, with pretty demonstrative geopotential height implosion over head like that, does lend to some "perhaps" additional/unusual deeper layer instability getting involved ...which doesn't take a big leap of sci-fi to say that could physically lend to momentum packets diving to the surface in bursts...

but, forget the dystopian cake with shadenfreude frosting on top dreams of grid failure and roof peeling for a moment, ..that whole system is a striking homage to the versatility of autumn weather (to put it softly...)  you got 550 to 560 DM thickness COL situated from VA to ME, and this like cosmic fist of cold is punching into the midriff mid-atlantic like 9 to 12 hours before BOS!!  ... RDU, Va., could be 533 DM with temps rushing toward freezing while it's sort of like calm and mild in Worcester.   

i realize the folks could care less about the meteorology of meteorology on a meteorology social media that's rife with users, whose only purpose for really being here, despite all apparent intents and reasons, is some weird kind of support group/virtual cryospheric psycho-babble resolution for internal angst ...(take breath) but, that kind of dynamic powder keg is something to be encouraged about in its own rite.  i'll tell you, (enters the dreaded 'what-if') ...if we had managed to lay down a colder tropospheric layout leading that mid atlantic punch, that whole structure's cold profile hand would have been forced and that would've been one fantastically giddy bi-polar upper of a nor'easter right there.  you'd be talking forum resenters expression mutual love -

buuut... the inverted model system is getting more likely as there's just no/not enough leading system nascent cold.  so in general, that Sun-Tues system's part and parcel contribution to the local hemisphere's dynamic budget assists the negative NAO mode change.  

after which ... for regions astride the 40th parallel, it seems there's an emerged tenor in the ballast of GEFs members ...oper. GFS and back ( and to a great extent I'm seeing the same tendency in the GGEM and Euro) for the thickness medium to shed a solid 10 to 15 DM after Tuesday, with less obvious continental bounce back.  that should last into the first week of December.  pretty much any system that meanders through immediately benefits.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We got a decent amount .75" or so from the remnants of Matthew that sunday in October, but not what others got out east.  So I hear you :-).  Yesterday was very appreciated.

Any rain at this point helps, it was nice to feel soggy ground this morning. The pattern at least looks more active moving forward, even if it doesn't bring much in the way of snow.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS doesn't cutoff like the euro for late this weekend and is so much colder. Wonder if the euro backs off on the cutoff.

At this point I just hope we can get some more Precip...rain is fine...Snow is better lol.  But I'll take either cuz the lakes, ponds and reservoir's are way down around here.  We have some making up to do, so bring on the stormier pattern imo.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS doesn't cutoff like the euro for late this weekend and is so much colder. Wonder if the euro backs off on the cutoff.

Buffalo isn't getting a blizzard this weekend, should trend toward the GFS...its a cold front with maybe some upslopoe snow or lake effect behind it

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Dan said:

Where's the 70s for this week that someone was mentioning?

 

4 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

exactly, I knew I wasn't the only one who heard about a heatwave

We'll see how it plays out. The GFS has a pretty dry column both Fri and Sat yet a very shallow afternoon inversion. It won't take much mixing (even with a low sun) to push 70F in the warm spots. I could see MOS busting pretty hard. Even then it still has 62 and 64 for BDL Fri/Sat. Torch on.

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