jbenedet Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: We'll see how it plays out. The GFS has a pretty dry column both Fri and Sat yet a very shallow afternoon inversion. It won't take much mixing (even with a low sun) to push 70F in the warm spots. I could see MOS busting pretty hard. Even then it still has 62 and 64 for BDL Fri/Sat. Torch on. I agree MOS is notoriously low in situations like this. I'd be very comfortable adding 5 F to both of those numbers. However, I do think southern Vermont, , w. MA and w. Connecticut will be warmer on Friday, relative to the eastern half of New England as the low level wind switches to more westerly/southwesterly by early afternoon for western areas, but takes until sunset for eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Too much southerly component for that much warmth. Around 60 should do it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Too much southerly component for that much warmth. Around 60 should do it . Yeah...those mid 50s water temps are just frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Too much southerly component for that much warmth. Around 60 should do it . Sounds wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Colder as in more interesting for SNE, or still just some rain showers? Nothing interesting, just colder. I guess western CT and western MA could get some SHSN if the flow is right. But for most, just looks chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Long ways out but Euro shows a little snow over interior on Tday. Esp N of pike into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 I know we joke about torchgiving, but seems like only GFS op is really doing this. Even the ensemble mean is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Is the storm signal still there on Tgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Man Siberia....is epic cold. I suppose the massive Siberian HP can help disturb the vortex.....it's already weak anyways so that can only help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man Siberia....is epic cold. I suppose the massive Siberian HP can help disturb the vortex.....it's already weak anyways so that can only help. A large portion of Siberia may end up with their most negative departure month on record. The cold there is incredible and it's been there almost all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: A large portion of Siberia may end up with their most negative departure month on record. The cold there is incredible and it's been there almost all month. -50F departure in some parts. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A large portion of Siberia may end up with their most negative departure month on record. The cold there is incredible and it's been there almost all month. Did you read that somewhere? I was curious about how anomalous it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 USNN 161900Z 02002MPS CAVOK M35/M38 Q1032 R03/410265 NOSIG RMK In mid November? Holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did you read that somewhere? I was curious about how anomalous it was. Yeah I was reading about it yesterday. It's been crazy. I would think this is probably good news though for weakening stratospheric PV as you said. That is like a complete concrete dome over the region so anything will just ride over top of it and make it easier to assault the vortex up high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Wow! This is Kazakhstan. UAKK 161900Z 09003MPS CAVOK M36/M39 Q1028 R05/950548 NOSIG RMK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is the storm signal still there on Tgiving? Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Bump Did you not read two posts up from your original question? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Did you not read two posts up from your original question? Lol He has trouble understanding posts that aren't in the form of a tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Did you not read two posts up from your original question? Lol Well he said only GFS op was alone . so I wondered if the Euro continued it's colder storm look it had at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: He has trouble understanding posts that aren't in the form of a tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 the Sun to Tuesday setup on the Euro shows strong resemblance to the October snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: the Sun to Tuesday setup on the Euro shows strong resemblance to the October snow event Oct was a front end thump, this is an ULL overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 its interesting how you can literally see the LES bands on the Euro by the 850 temp distribution, could be a 1-2 footer or maybe more for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oct was a front end thump, this is an ULL overhead. I thought there was an initial warm with PF getting rain then 850's chilled underneath followed by reorganization in the GOM with prolific upslope after? Nope Edit I was thinking of something else, yes it was a sWFE type event then transitioned over to upslope, at any rate something to watch for you elevation guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wow! This is Kazakhstan. UAKK 161900Z 09003MPS CAVOK M36/M39 Q1028 R05/950548 NOSIG RMK -36C! Beautiful. Wagons west...or is that east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 OT but apparently Europe has been chilly? My daughter was in Poland all of last week-snow in the air daily, small covering otg in spots, temps 28-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I thought there was an initial warm with PF getting rain then 850's chilled underneath followed by reorganization in the GOM with prolific upslope after? Nope Edit I was thinking of something else, yes it was a sWFE type event then transitioned over to upslope, at any rate something to watch for you elevation guys Yeah you are right on the top part for storm one. That was deform and upslope combo after the upper level system got to our northeast and pivoted. The CAA was from the SW to NE. It was snowing in Snowshoe, WV before anywhere in NY/New England. That was the one that left 11" at the Stake, the largest storm of 2016. The bottom part of your post is the second snow event of October that spread snows to lower elevations and further south. The first event set the table for the SWFE style WAA of the second event. This event brought 7" to the picnic tables and was the system that bought DIT 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Sucks to not have the euro till 10-11am now that I'm 7 hours ahead of Boston. 10 hour time zone flip for me since I was in California last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Wow! This is Kazakhstan. UAKK 161900Z 09003MPS CAVOK M36/M39 Q1028 R05/950548 NOSIG RMK Bust out the vodka. what else can you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I thought there was an initial warm with PF getting rain then 850's chilled underneath followed by reorganization in the GOM with prolific upslope after? Nope Edit I was thinking of something else, yes it was a sWFE type event then transitioned over to upslope, at any rate something to watch for you elevation guys We always like when the ULL goes underneath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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