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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Don't worry, it's moving 10 mph they are not gonna miss much.

If RI continues, they'll actually be missing quite a bit. Should get there in time for the winds to catch up to the pressure drops though. 

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27 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

If RI continues, they'll actually be missing quite a bit. Should get there in time for the winds to catch up to the pressure drops though. 

This is for another thread but they really arent going to miss that much.  RI doesn't happen in the 3 hours it's going to take them to get there it's a much longer process to even be considered RI.  They will be back in there in plenty of time to monitor this storm, it's only moving 10 mph.  Almost guarantee they will hit the eye before the 5am update which is what they try to do.  Not being coarse but they don't fly so we have something to look at every 5 minutes.  I've learned over many many years to be patient with these storms and the flights and the models and the forecasts.   I'm sure from a science aspect, those guys want 10 planes and drones in a storm like this all the time 24/7.  There's a reason the NOAA P3's aren't flying these storms as much as they used to and it has nothing to do with the age of those badass P3's.  It is what it is and that's about it, I wish it was better, especially on the NOAA side,   Please dont ban me! I hope that answered your question.

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro Hi Res has lowest pressure of 934.1mb right roughly 4-6 hours prior to landfall. Wind gusts over 130 knots near the coast with landfall area receiving 100-115 knot gusts. Hurricane force gusts extending inland by 40-50 miles. 

 

Thanks Scott. Unreal storm. My uncle and aunt about 20 miles north of Fort Lauderdale have already boarded up there house and are preparing for the storm. They said every gas station is out of gas.

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

The HRRR is not really built to be a hurricane model, but the 04z HRRR has a section of the rather wide eyewall into Fort Lauderdale in 18hrs (22z) Scary! It seems so soon.

It tends to have a major west bias with every significant low beyond hour 14 or so, so that does not surprise me.

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Well, then, referring to a real hurricane model (not the HRRR), the 00z HWRF has the 64kt wind field approaching the coast at 21z then, nearly 64kt (plus or minus some) scrapes the coast for a long time, up to nearly Charleston harbor SC.  I would suppose that hurricane force wind gusts could occur 20 miles inland for a large stretch of the coast. I hope it really does turn away from the coast in South Carolina. Certainly not rooting for damage... I have a fondness for Myrtle Beach pier.

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