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PTC Matthew


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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Hadn't looked at the satellite in a while... But damn Matthew's core has really taken one to the chin because of Cuba. Not a devastating blow to the cirulation, but a significant one nonetheless...


I haven't looked at sat for 6 hours...and just looked.. couldn't believe it was still over Cuba.   wow...it was literally stuck there for hours, with such an ez escape route too.  surprising.

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3 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I was about to when ROOSTA popped in with a very good comment.


Tell your Dad to go look at some video. Tell him to get 30 gallons of water, a bunch of propane, lots of ice, mac and canned tuna, to go ahead and dump his frig and freezer now (fish stinks in the kitchen after defrosting for 3 days and a cooler won't save anything past 48 hours or so) and to prepare for days of no A/C - the A/C thing typically gets folks thinking.

First and foremost be safe my neighbor, and to all others to be effected.
If one googles or searches the NOAA site I think one could find the URL specifically designed for surge. Remember looking at it for Hermine just didn't save it.

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14 minutes ago, larrye said:

I have a friend who is a met who says that they are not as reliable and have seen it posted many times here. But maybe that has changed.

It's mostly a myth. Refer to this NCEP presentation. You can see the skill scores for yourself here as well. Notice how there's little if any difference. In fact, over the last 30 days the combined skill of the 6/18 cycles have come out ahead of the 0/12 cycles for D5 850mb vector wind skill in the tropics...albeit barely.

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1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

It's mostly a myth. Refer to this NOAA presentation.

The reason you see it on this board so often is about 99% time, it is claimed by someone that was getting 12" inches of snow from a 12Z run but only getting 6" of snow from an 18Z run. 

There are infinite series of crutches for weenies. 

The big tropical one is the "making its own environment" one when a weenie is disappointed they wont get hit by all the models, trying to come up with a reason they are all wrong.  There is a tiny grain of truth to this for a few storms but it is massively abused. 

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Hate to be this guy, but... People threw out the Euro because of the loop, why not the GFS too? I'm throwing it out until we get multiple continuous runs showing it, but that's just me. 

Neither should be thrown out. It's a possible evolution of steering flow if the cyclone gets left behind by the trough. It's also beyond 150 hrs out.

The main focus is the short term trends with the coastline and 96 hrs.

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6 minutes ago, jburns said:

If you don't up your game I am going to mandatorily evacuate you from posting for a few days. 

That GFS run is one of the most amazing model runs of all time.



jburns,. I quoted you so you would see this.  Any chance we can get Amwx on storm mode to clean some of this mess up?   Oh and thanks for what you do here also! 



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