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PTC Matthew

PaEasternWX

By PaEasternWX,
in Tropical Headquarters

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

What does the wind shear look like over the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida?  Is Matthew moving into perfect conditions?  Or just slightly favorable?

Conditions over the next 24 hours consist of water temperatures that are the equivalent of jet fuel to tropical cyclones. Wind shear is weak. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for intensification.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, David Reimer said:

Conditions over the next 24 hours consist of water temperatures that are the equivalent of jet fuel to tropical cyclones. Wind shear is weak. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for intensification.

Indeed, about as close to ideal conditions as you can possibly get. Hopefully the core was disrupted enough that it's going to take a lot of time before a period of RI could have occurred.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Arent the waters in that area more shallow and more prone to rapid upwelling/cooling tho?

It remains in an area of very high ocean heat content. Even if upwelling were to start becoming an issue (which it isn't with the storm moving at 10 MPH) the waters at depth are also quite warm. Upwelling/cooling will become more of an issue once the storm gets off the Georgia coast. 

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted

My parents live 500 yards from the Intracoastal near Flagler Beach.

I know that there has been talk of surge/flooding being a serious issue in this area. Does anybody have any real numbers regarding potential surge? We figure they are about 10-12 feet ASL. I am strongly encouraging them to leave tonight and get to as far as Jacksonville so they won't have to deal with I-95 tomorrow.

We haven't seen a storm path anything like this, and I think people may underestimate not only how bad coastal flooding will be, but how backed up I-95 could get. My worst- case scenario is 95 becoming a parking lot heading north and people being forced to ride out the storm in their vehicles.

Am I overthinking this?

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk


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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


There is a cluster track about 40 miles-ish off the FL coast which models are now keying on and starting to adjust to. We'll see how Matthew 'behaves' as it approaches.

That's not how hurricane forecasting works.  The skill at the range of the Florida pass is +/- 200 miles.  Even if every model had it passing precisely 40 miles off the coast at this range, there would still be a ~40% chance of a landfall.

how many times do they need to say "focus on the cone, not the line" before people listen? 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

The key to re intensification today will be how quickly the inner core recovers from the Cuba encounter. Recon missions have found winds remain impressively high to the north/northeast of the circulation, but those aren't making it to the surface at the moment. If (and more of a when in this case) we start to see pressure drop those winds may start to mix down. A couple dropsondes have measured 130-140+ MPH winds in the lowest 50 millibars this morning. That indicates the circulation remains vigorous and may be primed to get more organized in a hurry. The AF aircraft is about to make another center pass. We'll see what they find and we can start to build a pressure-trend from the past 90 minutes. I still wouldn't be surprised if we don't see any sizable strengthening/pressure drop until after noon. Matthew is many things - but predictable certainly isn't one of them. 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

My parents live 500 yards from the Intracoastal near Flagler Beach.

I know that there has been talk of surge/flooding being a serious issue in this area. Does anybody have any real numbers regarding potential surge? We figure they are about 10-12 feet ASL. I am strongly encouraging them to leave tonight and get to as far as Jacksonville so they won't have to deal with I-95 tomorrow.

We haven't seen a storm path anything like this, and I think people may underestimate not only how bad coastal flooding will be, but how backed up I-95 could get. My worst- case scenario is 95 becoming a parking lot heading north and people being forced to ride out the storm in their vehicles.

Am I overthinking this?

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 

 

It wouldn't be a bad idea to get inland if they're near a water source. Matthew has a fairly decent wind field and it will be pushing a lot of water. My best advice is to follow the recommendations of local emergency management personal. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

I know this question was discussed many pages ago, but figured someone here would know the answer off the top of his/her head: Tropical Tidbits model run data for at least the GFS/CMC shows MSLP way above what the actual/projected MSLP is (e.g., at t=0, both are showing over 990 mbar vs. the actual ~960 mbar); the Euro appears to be correct, though.  Is there some "setting" or selection wherein one can get an accurate pressure?  If not, is the "error" a constant, i.e., can I always subtract about 30 mbar (kind of wondering if during the loop back towards Florida if the storm is at its t=0 pressure of near 960 mbar or really increases to ~990 mbar)?  

And while we're at it, when projecting ahead, often the storm goes outside of the "window" displayed, i.e., east/north of Nova Scotia or south of Cuba, for example - is there a way to shift that window?  Thanks, in advance.  

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, RU848789 said:

I know this question was discussed many pages ago, but figured someone here would know the answer off the top of his/her head: Tropical Tidbits model run data for at least the GFS/CMC shows MSLP way above what the actual/projected MSLP is (e.g., at t=0, both are showing over 990 mbar vs. the actual ~960 mbar); the Euro appears to be correct, though.  Is there some "setting" or selection wherein one can get an accurate pressure?  If not, is the "error" a constant, i.e., can I always subtract about 30 mbar (kind of wondering if during the loop back towards Florida if the storm is at its t=0 pressure of near 960 mbar or really increases to ~990 mbar)?  

And while we're at it, when projecting ahead, often the storm goes outside of the "window" displayed, i.e., east/north of Nova Scotia or south of Cuba, for example - is there a way to shift that window?  Thanks, in advance.  

Even looking at high res products, it's not uncommon to see highly inaccurate pressure readings.

You also have to make sure that you're looking at the correct height in the atmosphere. Typically you're going to find stronger winds and lower pressures above the actual surface.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
That's not how hurricane forecasting works.  The skill at the range of the Florida pass is +/- 200 miles.  Even if every model had it passing precisely 40 miles off the coast at this range, there would still be a ~40% chance of a landfall.

how many times do they need to say "focus on the cone, not the line" before people listen? 


Thus the reason I said we need to watch wobbles, etc and how Matt "behaves". The cone is starting to get smaller now as it approaches keep in mind. Nobody is saying an exact lat/lon it will pass, just stating the LF FL scenario threat has slightly diminished since 18z..., and I emphasize 'slightly' as it will only take a small shift or wobble to trend things West again.
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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Thus the reason I said we need to watch wobbles, etc and how Matt "behaves". The cone is starting to get smaller now as it approaches keep in mind. Nobody is saying an exact lat/lon it will pass, just stating the LF FL scenario threat has slightly diminished since 18z..., and I emphasize 'slightly' as it will only take a small shift or wobble to trend things West again.

No, the LF threat has not diminished since 18Z, especially since you're looking at the hurricane models.  And we are not talking about wobbles, we're talking about the way hurricanes are modeled quantitatively.  I urge you to learn before you post.

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

This will explode again....I see this getting close to Cat. 5 tonight...

 

 

Mathew.gif

This is a great map for people to look back to. 3 day forecast for this same storm, IIRC there was decent model agreement, and actual first landfall was either on the outer edge of, or just outside of, the cone.

Always respect the cone.  The natural fallacy is to overstate your certainty.

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
No, the LF threat has not diminished since 18Z, especially since you're looking at the hurricane models.  And we are not talking about wobbles, we're talking about the way hurricanes are modeled quantitatively.  I urge you to learn before you post.

I will heed your advice since I am not a tropical wx guy. If you are certain a LF threat has not diminished for FL in any way, shape, or form, why has the NHC adjusted their cone East and hardly include the FL coast now for a direct hit. Just trying to learn. Thanks.

Edit....nm looking at old cone. See, still learning :-) back to lurking

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Quick question.....someone had been posting that Matthew will strengthen to sub 900mb over the Bahamas. Is this deep strengthening a legit concern, ie, for this system to get that intense? Arent sub 900mb storms extremely extremely rare in that area?

Whoever has been posting that this system will get below 900 millibars needs a good old kick in the backside. Systems below 910 millibars are quite rare in the Atlantic as a whole - not to mention below 900 millibars. 

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