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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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Rates have relaxed in the band. 20"+ totals now in some areas.

What was it? Looked like a cross between an eyewall and a frontogenesis band. Could be a MAUL thrown in there like Erin and Sandy had. We will have to await further sounding analysis from mets.

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You tend to see those in storms like this that are becoming baroclinic. They will have a narrow convergence band. However this is one of the most vivid examples i can remember.

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There was definitely some baroclinic contribution there. About a 10F spread in temps and 5-10F spread in dews across the band.

I'll be interested to see what some of the final totals were underneath that. Radar estimates were certainly impressive, but they typically underestimate in deep warm-rain setups.

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41 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

There was definitely some baroclinic contribution there. About a 10F spread in temps and 5-10F spread in dews across the band.

I'll be interested to see what some of the final totals were underneath that. Radar estimates were certainly impressive, but they typically underestimate in deep warm-rain setups.

We were under it for a while and even though the rain drops were HUGE, the rates were not that grand imo. I would have estimated it at 1-1.5" per hour rate 

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Radar loops of Matthew are extremely similar to Floyd. Can see the baroclinically enhanced precip near the coast, large rain shield, confluence bands off the Atlantic, etc.

Floyd1999NCLandfall.gif

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Storm rainfall totals as of 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AS MATTHEW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.





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So the loop is no more, the binary interaction with Nicole more or less a non-event or a brief wobble south, Matthew tries his best to tag along with the front and may even manage to get on board around Newfoundland. The rains across the Mid-Atlantic may be analyzed as frontal over-running but it's really Matthew in disguise. 

Nicole waits around for a while then re-energized makes a northeast move on Bermuda. 

 

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The UKMET did especially well imo. The Euro also did a fairly good job too. But the UKMET had been signaling a florida threat, while all the others were still OTS until the carolinas. Very well done.

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21 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

The UKMET did especially well imo. The Euro also did a fairly good job too. But the UKMET had been signaling a florida threat, while all the others were still OTS until the carolinas. Very well done.

Quantitative verification agrees.  For Matthew mean track errors : ukmo < ecmfw < gfs < everything else.  Edited to fix obviously wrong name.

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at201614_verify.gif

You can see the UK being closest to actual track in a high percentage of the frames.

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10 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

The UKMET did especially well imo. The Euro also did a fairly good job too. But the UKMET had been signaling a florida threat, while all the others were still OTS until the carolinas. Very well done.

Models (except the EURO) were consistently too far north with the storm, until it got to Florida. Then someone flipped a switch and they were all consistently too far south with it.

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Hurricane Matthew has 49.3 ACE units, making up less than half of the 113.5 ACE units for the Atlantic (Ryan Maue web page). The Atlantic is above the usual 104 ACE units for the season. I recently figured out that my old friend Phil Klotzbach/CSU has ACE calculations that may be a little different from Maue/Weatherbell.

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Not sure the best place to post this:

70 miles inland in SC... 47,000 of 52,000 in our county still without power (and projected to be out for a week), huge trees and power lines down everywhere, roads/cars/even some houses flooded, can barely get anywhere in town.

The rain was predicted but it was repeatedly said that the rain would be the main problem. There is tons and tons of damage from downed trees, and the wind was very impressive. Gusts strong enough to knock you off of your feet...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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7 hours ago, WeatherFan202 said:

It actually ended up being a cat 5. Matthew became a cat 5 with pressure around 940mb. So obv 930 can be a cat 5

For future reference, here is the advisorydiscussion where it was first stated as a cat 5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/al14/al142016.discus.012.shtml?

e: advisory link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/al14/al142016.public.012.shtml?

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On 10/8/2016 at 3:00 PM, Chinook said:

North Myrtle Beach KCRE shows 981mb. Wow. By the way, I don't think I've ever seen an eyewall transition to a linear thunderstorm band like is what happening just north of Myrtle Beach.   I was at Surfside for 2 summers so I am a little sad to see the storm surge go over the street (as per somebody's post on the SE subforum)

I grew up in Surfside and live about 8 miles away now. Garden City/Surfside was hit very hard with surge. Surfside and Springmaid Piers were even destroyed. We live west of the waterway and a good portion of our fence was damaged. 

We had A LOT more damage than many thought we would! 

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I always figured that Garden City would take a bigger hit from a storm surge. The dune was about 6 ft in Surfside. It seems to me the shops in downtown Myrtle Beach were about 15 ft above the water. Garden City had almost no dune protection. I may or may not remember these things correctly. What is your take on it?

Let me tell you something I haven't told a lot of people. We were at Surfside in '96 then our group had to go to Columbia to evacuate for Hurricane Bertha. While in Columbia, we were watching TWC, and meteorologist Bill Keneeley was reporting at Murrell's Inlet. We said, jokingly, that there was Bill Keneeley standing next to our rental house, getting washed away! Of course, Bertha in '96 did not landfall there, but the eye was close. Nothing got washed away, and no trees were down that I saw. Bertha's winds away from shore decreased the water level when we got back. So it was an anti-storm surge, kind of interesting to find a few things on the beach that would have been underwater.

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6 hours ago, Chinook said:

I always figured that Garden City would take a bigger hit from a storm surge. The dune was about 6 ft in Surfside. It seems to me the shops in downtown Myrtle Beach were about 15 ft above the water. Garden City had almost no dune protection. I may or may not remember these things correctly. What is your take on it?

Let me tell you something I haven't told a lot of people. We were at Surfside in '96 then our group had to go to Columbia to evacuate for Hurricane Bertha. While in Columbia, we were watching TWC, and meteorologist Bill Keneeley was reporting at Murrell's Inlet. We said, jokingly, that there was Bill Keneeley standing next to our rental house, getting washed away! Of course, Bertha in '96 did not landfall there, but the eye was close. Nothing got washed away, and no trees were down that I saw. Bertha's winds away from shore decreased the water level when we got back. So it was an anti-storm surge, kind of interesting to find a few things on the beach that would have been underwater.

I was telling my wife tonight when we were riding around that Garden City, especially along ocean boulevard, is basically a bowl. It's a little bit like New Orleans down there because once the water rises high enough, it has nowhere to go but down...into the houses along the boulevard and a few rows back from it. A part of the boulevard was closed this evening because they're cleaning the road up from the surge. And this was just a category 1 storm. This area can't take another Hugo! 

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