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NNE Fall Thread

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think I stumbled upon metHarmony.com

I like long walks along 4k

4Konly.com??     "Sea level folk just don't understand.."

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

4Konly.com??     "Sea level folk just don't understand.."

"Are you a smoker?"

"yeah, but I only smoke cirrus."

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah see when I read the warm ground comments I assume that's implied.  Of course CCB putting 0.2"/hr QPF snow will stick.  But the 0.05"/hr in the bucket can struggle mightily and the warm ground will make a difference.

Careful what you assume. I sadly have had coworkers that don't add in that implied meaning we're talking about. That's how end up with a forecast of half of CON's total in the October snowstorm.

I think the priming of the snow matters too. If you have mild ground temps, plus a nearly isothermal column, your flake will be more ready to melt as a result. If you slam in a cold air mass aloft and the flakes are well below freezing when they reach the ground, it will take more energy and a longer time to melt. That can make all the difference is allowing subsequent flakes to start stacking up on top.

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1 hour ago, alex said:

WInd gusts to 30 mph + (and the weather station is in a sheltered spot)

You might be either funneling through Crawford Notch or just getting downslope off the Presidentials. HIE gusting to 35 mph too.

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Warmth and wetness of the ground aside, the models are a little less exciting for the northern greens this morning. Delays the onset of the cold a touch, has a little more south component in the winds when the coldfront comes in and pulls the low out a little faster...at least for sunday.  Looking more interesting Monday afternoon into tuesday ...looks sorta like a classic green mountain spine "surprise" event where a weak wave produces 4" of fluff above 2500 feet. 

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6 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Those tiny 29 dbz pixels just scored me a 1.52"/hr rain rate. The hell?

Juiced. Efficient processes for rain. I saw that down here too.

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The New England rain shield appears to be holding most of the serious rain to the west.  0.14 inches leaked through yesterday.

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16 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

The New England rain shield appears to be holding most of the serious rain to the west.  0.14 inches leaked through yesterday.

As modeled. You'll get yours.

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I hope so.  The band of rain to the west is impressive.

I've been keeping track of the forecasts  (both P&C and the AFD) for my area starting Wednesday.  I'll post afterwards to see how things turned out.

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Warmth and wetness of the ground aside, the models are a little less exciting for the northern greens this morning. Delays the onset of the cold a touch, has a little more south component in the winds when the coldfront comes in and pulls the low out a little faster...at least for sunday.  Looking more interesting Monday afternoon into tuesday ...looks sorta like a classic green mountain spine "surprise" event where a weak wave produces 4" of fluff above 2500 feet. 



Yeah BTV is walking it down now which makes sense.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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We’re into the short term now with the snow forecast, and I grabbed a snippet from the BTV NWS forecast discussion:

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 400 AM EDT Friday...Rain will gradually change to snow over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains Saturday night as a closed upper low moves over the region which will provide dynamical cooling aloft with a change to snow over the higher elevations. Have leaned toward the warmer GFS MOS guidance for min temperatures Saturday night, as the NAM MOS guidance looks too cold. Also, combination of cloud cover and gusty west winds will help to keep air well mixed and will help to keep temperatures up. Thus, have lowered snowfall amounts a bit from the previous forecast given a slower changeover to snow in the higher elevations.

 

I’ve added some BTV NWS snow forecast maps that I saw from yesterday and today below – things were generally tapered back as noted, although there are still some decent amounts forecast for the peaks as one would expect:

 

20OCT16A.jpg

 

21OCT16A.jpg

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All I know is i am just trying to keep from allowing the PTSD from last year get to me lol.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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22 minutes ago, eyewall said:

All I know is i am just trying to keep from allowing the PTSD from last year get to me lol.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

I know what your saying and your going to be gun shy until 6"+ is on your doorstep, but it is only OCT.

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4 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

The New England rain shield appears to be holding most of the serious rain to the west.  0.14 inches leaked through yesterday.

"T" thru yesterday, 0.06" thru 7 this morning and not much if anything since.  Oct. total now up to 0.56".  The gfs "slash qpf in half during the pre-event 24 hr" process is working, just like last "winter."  Hope it's wrong.

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I hope so.  The band of rain to the west is impressive.

I've been keeping track of the forecasts  (both P&C and the AFD) for my area starting Wednesday.  I'll post afterwards to see how things turned out.


Same here

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39 minutes ago, tamarack said:

"T" thru yesterday, 0.06" thru 7 this morning and not much if anything since.  Oct. total now up to 0.56".  The gfs "slash qpf in half during the pre-event 24 hr" process is working, just like last "winter."  Hope it's wrong.

I can live with that. Based on our grids through 18z today we had you down for about 0.10 to 0.15"

By far the biggest slug is this evening.

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55 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I can live with that. Based on our grids through 18z today we had you down for about 0.10 to 0.15"

By far the biggest slug is this evening.

Looking forward to it.  Last rain event to reach even 1/2" was in August.  raise the bar to over 1" and it's March.  At least the Sandy River is rising - up to 40 cfs though still a record for the date.  Obviously, the trees are no longer stealing as much of the underground flow now that the leaves have stopped boosting local dewpoints.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Looking forward to it.  Last rain event to reach even 1/2" was in August.  raise the bar to over 1" and it's March.  At least the Sandy River is rising - up to 40 cfs though still a record for the date.  Obviously, the trees are no longer stealing as much of the underground flow now that the leaves have stopped boosting local dewpoints.

Good lord... you seem to live in the most frustrating spot for everything except cold. :( 

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7 minutes ago, Hitman said:

Lincoln peak snowcam upgraded.  gives a timelapse.  looks to be better situated.

http://www.sugarbush.com/mountain/webcams/

Can't tell anything about where it is based on that, but it's gotta be near power so I'm assuming it stayed near the Heavens Gate top station?

I still think it should be off that traverse from Jester to Organgrinder.  It's just a nice location that isn't the tippy top of the mountain and wouldn't need to be jammed into the impenetrable Spruce.  I do think going at the very top of the hill though gains then another 12-24" annually at least from even 500ft lower.

Very cool set up though.  Just hope the siting works out.

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