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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  34, NEQ,   90,   80,   70,  110, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 
WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  50, NEQ,   60,   60,   45,   70, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 
WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  64, NEQ,   40,   35,   20,   50, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 

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Virac is the closest synoptic station along the path and may even get very very close to the eye.. hopefully we can get some good data even just the minimum pressure... JMA at 8.0 but I'm very surprised they limited this to 905mb.. was really expecting something 890-900mb from them Also I believe this is the first time that PAGASA has raised Warning Signal #5 in the Philippines... the max used to be #4 but they introduced #5 as a response after Haiyan's monstrous landfall.

Virac also has a sizable population around 73k. Again, not the 250k with a much larger and denser region of inhabitants, but 73k is still a good size city. So I wasn't trying to downplay impact. That being said, hopefully the eye misses them to the north or they at least have offshore flow to avoid surge.

 

Edit: Actually I feel foolish. The entire island has about 250k inhabitants. That is actually pretty sizeable for a small region. Hate to see a city get in an eyewall such as Goni's, but obviously much of the island will regardless and a lot of people are about to have a terrifying experience. Apologies for the geography mistake there. I am getting rusty.

 

Edit: Ugh...This current motion may actually land Goni's eye smack over Virac as well. Well so much for optimism.

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15 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

This one crazy storm...200+mph wind gusts?

Easily... Saw Reed say up to 250 mph on Twitter but that's just so difficult to comprehend... Was that him guesstimating or an official figure (again, for gusts)?

 

Edit: Seen a couple other figures of 235 mph gusts, which seems more... realistic, for lack of a better word. Very extreme.

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12 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Easily... Saw Reed say up to 250 mph on Twitter but that's just so difficult to comprehend... Was that him guesstimating or an official figure (again, for gusts)?

I don't know but he isn't really known for being calm and calculated.

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There are ridges on the island of Catanduanes above 2,500 ft. Would not surprise me if the gusts along those exceed 210-220 mph. At any rate, parts of the island, especially the higher terrain are going to be heavily debarked and stripped of vegetation.

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Hope the wx station holds up. Let’s see if they have get a sub 890 reading

In these conditions, there's  literally  a better chance of it being taken out by a flying pig then staying online

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This advisory does have 195mph...
 

WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 016    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 125.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT


 

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That storm surge in Virac is going to be extremely sudden when the get in the back eyewall.

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It's too bad there aren't recon planes to collect data in west Pacific especially since they get hit by some of the strongest tropical systems on earth. Would love to get some actual wind and pressure data from this. Probably no instrument on that island, if there even is one, wouldn't survive long enough to get the max winds and lowest pressures. Eye seems to have shrunk on latest satellite after interacting with the island. Might see intensity level off or even drop off but that's not saying much from 195mph. Truly some of the most incredible satellite imagery I seen next to Haiyan and Patricia. 

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1 minute ago, Bhs1975 said:

Josh not wanna chase this one?

I mean, given the current environment, i.e. Covid, & still cleaning up his place in Bay St. Louis from Zeta, it just wasn't possible

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I mean, given the current environment, i.e. Covid, & still cleaning up his place in Bay St. Louis from Zeta, it just wasn't possible
Traveling to the Philippines or the Far East even for official government business is difficult right now, much less non-essential travel.
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