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lookingnorth

Winter 2016-17 discussion

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JB's wording leaves the interpretation open. I interpreted him saying the model forecast in question was "as ugly as it gets," which would refer to the predicted warmth.  


At least to me he seems to be talking about the canSIPS with the "as ugly as it gets" comment.

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I think my favorite snowstorms of all time have came in December. The Dec 18-19, 2009 mountain and foothill heavy snow brought the biggest snow in over a decade for most of WNC. The Christmas storm a year later was even better.. The models showed a big storm only to lose it days before the event.. We all know it came back and brought many of us a rare white Christmas and over 6 inches of snow for many in NC. This was following one of the biggest surprise snows in my life on December 12, 2010.. 3-4 inches of snow fell from a frontal band in the foothills and mountains of NC.

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58 minutes ago, griteater said:

The last time Charlotte recorded a 4+ inch snow in December was in Dec 1973.  During that same timespan, 4 such events have occurred in March (Mar '78, '80, '83, '09)

 

Hello all,

It's December, I guess it's snow chasin time! From what I've read so far most think this year's going to be a snoozer (except Cohen and he don't count).  I hope not, but nothing would surprise me at this point.  One thing that keeps me positive is we had a raging above normal winter last year and we still managed a heck of a sleet storm in CLT.  Probably again due to the +PNA and -EPO I'm guessing. So you never know.  Above normal winters can always throw a nice storm at you once in a while. 

^In regard to December Grit, I think this is just winter pattern recognition time.  I've got really no hope in an actual snow event in CLT.  Mountains and foothills probably a different story, but even below normal doesn't quite do it for Charlotte as you've noted from the annals of history.  For this month I just hope a nice blocking pattern emerges that carries over to January and February where we get our real opportunities.  

 

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19 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

 

Hello all,

It's December, I guess it's snow chasin time! From what I've read so far most think this year's going to be a snoozer (except Cohen and he don't count).  I hope not, but nothing would surprise me at this point.  One thing that keeps me positive is we had a raging above normal winter last year and we still managed a heck of a sleet storm in CLT.  Probably again due to the +PNA and -EPO I'm guessing. So you never know.  Above normal winters can always throw a nice storm at you once in a while. 

^In regard to December Grit, I think this is just winter pattern recognition time.  I've got really no hope in an actual snow event in CLT.  Mountains and foothills probably a different story, but even below normal doesn't quite do it for Charlotte as you've noted from the annals of history.  For this month I just hope a nice blocking pattern emerges that carries over to January and February where we get our real opportunities.  

 

I wouldn't rule out a flizzard near the end of the month

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

The last time Charlotte recorded a 4+ inch snow in December was in Dec 1973.  During that same timespan, 4 such events have occurred in March (Mar '78, '80, '83, '09)

It always amazes how December is such a crappy month for winter weather despite it being the 2nd coldest month of the year. Meanwhile, March is usually much warmer than December, March has a much higher sun angle, and the ground temps are usually warmer in March.  Is there not a correlation between cold temps and snow ?

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Euro Ens has been waffling back and forth with the extent of the cold.  Today was a colder waffle

zmdoo5.gif

EPS has high of 40F next Friday and Sat for our locales ...yikes.  

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JB's wording leaves the interpretation open. I interpreted him saying the model forecast in question was "as ugly as it gets," which would refer to the predicted warmth.  


Yes, I interpreted it the same way if the model is right his forecast is toast!!! but he's not buying that model at the moment. His final update is out to his clients now, said it will be out to public next week!! I don't think there'll be a lot of changes to it from the hints? (I could be wrong though) Their model the pioneer model is as opposite to the Canadian as it could be!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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38 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Pretty sure nrgjeff has concerns the cold gets hung up out west.  His comments were in the TN forum. 

Well without even going over to look, I am concerned this is not our typical polar air source track for the S/E. I believe it will moderate some and or be delayed. However, could still be cold enough for some winterwx before Christmas.

image cred @crankywxguy

CymVmFdXEAE4S6Y.jpg

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4 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It always amazes how December is such a crappy month for winter weather despite it being the 2nd coldest month of the year. Meanwhile, March is usually much warmer than December, March has a much higher sun angle, and the ground temps are usually warmer in March.  Is there not a correlation between cold temps and snow ?

The mean storm track slowly slips south through fall and into winter, so Dec suffers from the climo storm track not being as far south as it is in Jan & Feb...but your point is valid, you would think Dec would offer more potential given the climo temperatures.

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33 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Pretty sure nrgjeff has concerns the cold gets hung up out west.  His comments were in the TN forum. 

The 'foundation' for the cold is the strong Bering Sea ridge that reaches poleward.  A better 'foundation' would be Gulf of Alaska / E Alaska / NW Canada ridging that reaches poleward.  Push back from the subtropical ridging across the southern tier of the U.S. is lurking, but the modeling is keeping it at bay at the moment.  The 12z Euro Ens and 18z GFS Ens both trended a little colder today.

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20 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Well without even going over to look, I am concerned this is not our typical polar air source track for the S/E. I believe it will moderate some and or be delayed. However, could still be cold enough for some winterwx before Christmas.

image cred @crankywxguy

CymVmFdXEAE4S6Y.jpg

Once Canada gets into the freezer it won't matter in my opinion. Snow pack should really increase a lot in Canada. 

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Weeklies for weeks 3 and 4 go to a +EPO / Alaska low vortex pattern....mild/warm over most of the U.S.  Basically, the CanSips look.

Lol! That would do it especially the vortex of death up in Alaska.

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There is virtually no reason to think we will end up with anything other than a warmer than normal winter this year.  Every hint of cold we see gets soon replaced with moderation and a warmer look.  The warmer solutions have been much more consistent than the colder ones.  But, that said, we still gotta play the game.  We'll see....

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

There is virtually no reason to think we will end up with anything other than a warmer than normal winter this year.  Every hint of cold we see gets soon replaced with moderation and a warmer look.  The warmer solutions have been much more consistent than the colder ones.  But, that said, we still gotta play the game.  We'll see....

I still think that this is a unique year and the models will be playing catchup at the last moment. I think the seasonal models really have trouble with this winter pattern. We have already scene the Euro weeklies jump around more than usual this season. 

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