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August pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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... if the trend of modeling -vs- verification over the course of the summer thus far were any guide?  I'd say at times the signals will look scary hot, but then correct toward enough NW flow and/or just cleverly timed, preventative idiosyncrasies, to not allow the true 22's to get this far NE over the CONUS; yet, enough 19ers (or so) will to still get the temperatures respectively high nonetheless. this will effectively blind the knee-jerk summer-hater-observers from how this summer is really annoyingly screwing the hot side of the fan-fair, seemingly because it's fun for whatever force really runs this show to set up those clowns for their trophy taking.  

which i suppose for my own personal druthers is fine; i'm okay with 95 from time to time.  i don't actually 'kneed' repeating 104 records book ended with three days of 97's to feel satisfied with summer experience ... (which has never happened in the first place and may be telling - ha)

so, seeing as this summer is clearly preordained for mediocrity (and mediocrity edges above normal during GW ;) ) , throw hands and start looking forward to how this winter is f'ed?  

actually in all seriousness, .. if we can keep the re-curving Atl. side TC frequency to a dull roar, per Bosart et al/Fl. State that may be good for -negative NAO autumns.  That, plus, the dullard solar disk this summer thought to be causal in building up ozone numbers amid the key altitude-strata of over the poles ... which as we all know in our collective plebeian wit and wherewithal is also apparently correlated to sudden stratospheric warming during ensuing winters, well  nice - ...the majority irresponsible glacial holocaust seeking American Forum/SNE user should pants tend over where all that is heading; -NAO with SSWs over top ... muah hahahaha... Plus, the NE Pac is clearly into some sort of multi-decadal negative oscillation so -EPO's should prevail the majority of time... AND, ding-dong the ENSO's dead!  ...yes, with more of a neutral-negative vibe coming from the oft over-significant tropical Pacific correlation obsessed by NOAA, NASA, Times Square and the uncontacted Awa tribe of Amazonian South America, the world just ended in ice!

that pretty much should sum up how this August turns out...  

 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like another well above normal month that features little meaningful rain. There's many Aug forecasts out there and they all resemble this. Just a continuation of July

 

 

Doesn't look too dissimilar from July's progression; the first 10 days probably average a bit cooler than normal in New England, followed by biased above normal temperatures (though not torrid) heading into mid month/beyond. I think that if there is an anomalously hot period, the optimum time frame would be the last 10 days of the month (similar to July). The ECMWF ensembles and weeklies suggest generally above normal temps post 8/10 or so, and subsequently, more robust geopotential height rises for the latter/late part of the month. I'd say a reasonable guess for departures along the I-95 corridor would be +1 to +2, with the potential for higher depending upon the strength of warm pulse(s) in the second half of the month.

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34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Blah at cool temps in summer

re the Euro, it seems to have had a bit of trouble with temps this summer. 

Just give me a month of 82F and sunshine, and it'll be perfect.  

August starting cool and wet though...high of 66F today with 1.07" in the bucket.

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meteorological phenomenon can be weird like this ...  

presently, the synoptics don't 'appeal' to warrant the physical impact on the day that we are getting from this, yet - 

we do need (and vastly more) the rain, so it is probably more of a god-send than not. we've cashed in on .5 to 1" (melted) out here in metro-west, but .. looking at the 500 mb progression and immediate history of features ... 700mb for that matter, none of it really lends to a day of murk and moderate to heavy rain.  just the subtlest of perturbation available to the flow is having quite the disproportionately vivid impact on the sensible weather down here. 

one contour...one, of 500 mb heights and barely a detectable v-max ... tho, i got to question the model initialization some (particularly in the NAM) because looping the WV and vis sat imagery looks like more a torqued feature is parked squarely over Springfield Mass....  replete with a BD draw down from D.E.M. too.  but if you saw 12z's initialization 'dent' in the flow on a D6 chart you'd dismiss it as noise and barely speed bump the general theme of the synopsis - you wouldn't be inclined to forecast this way.   you'd be right 99% of the time, too, which makes this another (in my mind) eerie way in which this summer is cheating to keep NE in some kind of bizarre delusion of what's really going on... 

kidding of course.  this sort of reminds me of the 2013 February snows in some ways.  ...antithetically, of course.. .but, that big bomb month of winter ...there were a couple of big focused nor-easters but a lot of those snows came from weak perturbations that would otherwise seem innocuous riding along the interface between -EPO cold dome and Global warming further south.  haha.  that's awesome.

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heh, quite the heat look to the D6-10 showing up ... 

two things - this is either: 1 ...the original signal that Will and I were discussing over a week ago, ..if perhaps pushed out another 4 days or whatever ...? or 2 ... a whole new one.  

in the former scenario, it is what is..

in the latter, it's probably got to come along with the same cliche caveat established for this summer ...and that's the whole persistence thing to dismantle heat domes from D8's to D4's ... it's a bad bad bad 4 day's of modeling performance out there in time, across the pantheon of 'trusted advisers', specifically as it pertains to heat succeeding the BUF-NYC virtual boundary of impenetrable protection.   it's a recycled and/or new modeled Venetian appeal ... seasonal trend is against it.

we'll see...  the GGEM had 24 C 850's at Elmira NY at the end of its run and though i would not wish that on anyone, getting that to crest the Berks and flood along a katabatic trajectory to the coast would be morbidly amusing.  if it ever did, this summer cheats and 'gets away with it' yet again, anyway, because that happens when we've lost the 'edge' off the top of the higher insolation time of the year.  maybe it just is physically impossible ... like speed of light travel, for the atmosphere NOT to f around and screw up a big heat ridge between June 15 and August 1.  

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like another well above normal month that features little meaningful rain. There's many Aug forecasts out there and they all resemble this. Just a continuation of July

Man .. What an inferno coming next week

C418ED7A-0058-4922-A167-F8D93A1FC4F0_zps

Looks perfect for my week on CC w/ the family.   :  ) 

 

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On ‎8‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 9:30 AM, rimetree said:

Selfishly hoping the warmth portrayed for mid-late next week holds. Will be up in the Grand Lakes region of ME and would love a nice warm stretch for water-based activities.

Will have to go deep for salmon or togue, but the smallies should be hungry.  (If you can keep the pickerels away.)

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